Backtesting Trading Strategies

Backtest crypto and traditional trading strategies against historical data. Calculates performance metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, max drawdown), generates equity curves, and optimizes strategy parameters. Use when user wants to test a trading strategy, validate signals, or compare approaches. Trigger with phrases like "backtest strategy", "test trading strategy", "historical performance", "simulate trades", "optimize parameters", or "validate signals".

Overview

Validate trading strategies against historical data before risking real capital. This skill provides a complete backtesting framework with 8 built-in strategies, comprehensive performance metrics, and parameter optimization.

Key Features:

• 8 pre-built trading strategies (SMA, EMA, RSI, MACD, Bollinger, Breakout, Mean Reversion, Momentum)
• Full performance metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, VaR, max drawdown)
• Parameter grid search optimization
• Equity curve visualization
• Trade-by-trade analysis

Prerequisites

Install required dependencies:

bash

pip install pandas numpy yfinance matplotlib

Optional for advanced features:

bash

pip install ta-lib scipy scikit-learn

Instructions

Step 1: Fetch Historical Data

bash

python {baseDir}/scripts/fetch_data.py --symbol BTC-USD --period 2y --interval 1d

Data is cached to {baseDir}/data/{symbol}_{interval}.csv for reuse.

Step 2: Run Backtest

Basic backtest with default parameters:

bash

python {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py --strategy sma_crossover --symbol BTC-USD --period 1y

Advanced backtest with custom parameters:

bash

# Example: backtest with specific date range
python {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py \
  --strategy rsi_reversal \
  --symbol ETH-USD \
  --period 1y \
  --capital 10000 \
  --params '{"period": 14, "overbought": 70, "oversold": 30}'

Step 3: Analyze Results

Results are saved to {baseDir}/reports/ including:

• *_summary.txt - Performance metrics
• *_trades.csv - Trade log
• *_equity.csv - Equity curve data
• *_chart.png - Visual equity curve

Step 4: Optimize Parameters

Find optimal parameters via grid search:

bash

python {baseDir}/scripts/optimize.py \
  --strategy sma_crossover \
  --symbol BTC-USD \
  --period 1y \
  --param-grid '{"fast_period": [10, 20, 30], "slow_period": [50, 100, 200]}'

Output

Performance Metrics

Metric	Description
Total Return	Overall percentage gain/loss
CAGR	Compound annual growth rate
Sharpe Ratio	Risk-adjusted return (target: >1.5)
Sortino Ratio	Downside risk-adjusted return
Calmar Ratio	Return divided by max drawdown

Risk Metrics

Metric	Description
Max Drawdown	Largest peak-to-trough decline
VaR (95%)	Value at Risk at 95% confidence
CVaR (95%)	Expected loss beyond VaR
Volatility	Annualized standard deviation

Trade Statistics

Metric	Description
Total Trades	Number of round-trip trades
Win Rate	Percentage of profitable trades
Profit Factor	Gross profit divided by gross loss
Expectancy	Expected value per trade

Example Output

text

================================================================================
                    BACKTEST RESULTS: SMA CROSSOVER
                    BTC-USD | [start_date] to [end_date]
================================================================================
 PERFORMANCE                          | RISK
 Total Return:        +47.32%         | Max Drawdown:      -18.45%
 CAGR:                +47.32%         | VaR (95%):         -2.34%
 Sharpe Ratio:        1.87            | Volatility:        42.1%
 Sortino Ratio:       2.41            | Ulcer Index:       8.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 TRADE STATISTICS
 Total Trades:        24              | Profit Factor:     2.34
 Win Rate:            58.3%           | Expectancy:        $197.17
 Avg Win:             $892.45         | Max Consec. Losses: 3
================================================================================

Supported Strategies

Strategy	Description	Key Parameters
sma_crossover	Simple moving average crossover	fast_period, slow_period
ema_crossover	Exponential MA crossover	fast_period, slow_period
rsi_reversal	RSI overbought/oversold	period, overbought, oversold
macd	MACD signal line crossover	fast, slow, signal
bollinger_bands	Mean reversion on bands	period, std_dev
breakout	Price breakout from range	lookback, threshold
mean_reversion	Return to moving average	period, z_threshold
momentum	Rate of change momentum	period, threshold

Configuration

Create {baseDir}/config/settings.yaml:

yaml

data:
  provider: yfinance
  cache_dir: ./data

backtest:
  default_capital: 10000
  commission: 0.001     # 0.1% per trade
  slippage: 0.0005      # 0.05% slippage

risk:
  max_position_size: 0.95
  stop_loss: null       # Optional fixed stop loss
  take_profit: null     # Optional fixed take profit

Error Handling

See {baseDir}/references/errors.md for common issues and solutions.

Examples

See {baseDir}/references/examples.md for detailed usage examples including:

• Multi-asset comparison
• Walk-forward analysis
• Parameter optimization workflows

Files

File	Purpose
scripts/backtest.py	Main backtesting engine
scripts/fetch_data.py	Historical data fetcher
scripts/strategies.py	Strategy definitions
scripts/metrics.py	Performance calculations
scripts/optimize.py	Parameter optimization

Resources

• yfinance - Yahoo Finance data
• TA-Lib - Technical analysis library
• QuantStats - Portfolio analytics