Threshold Trader

Automatically trades prediction markets when prices deviate beyond your configured probability threshold with Kelly Criterion sizing and safety checks.

A simple probability-threshold trading skill for prediction markets. Trades when market prices diverge from your configured probability threshold by a minimum edge amount.

This is a template. The default signal is a fixed probability threshold — remix it with your own model predictions, external data feeds, or custom signals. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

How It Works

1. Monitor Markets: Scans active markets on your configured venue (Polymarket or sim)
2. Check Threshold: Compares current market price against your configured probability
3. Calculate Edge: Only trades when edge exceeds minimum threshold (default 3%)
4. Position Sizing: Uses Kelly Criterion-based sizing for optimal stake amounts
5. Safety Checks: Reviews flip-flop warnings, slippage estimates, and edge analysis before executing
6. Auto-Redeem: Automatically collects payouts from resolved markets

Configuration

Configure via environment variables:

• THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY: Your probability estimate (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.70
• TRADE_SIDE: Which side to trade ("YES" or "NO"). Default: "YES"
• SIMMER_VENUE: Trading venue ("sim" for paper, "polymarket" for real). Default: "sim"
• SIMMER_MIN_EV: Minimum edge to trade (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.03 (3%)
• SIMMER_KELLY_MULTIPLIER: Kelly fraction (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.25
• MAX_POSITION_SIZE: Maximum position size in USD. Default: 100.0

Usage

Install the skill:

bash

npx clawhub@latest install threshold-trader

Set your credentials and configuration:

bash

export SIMMER_API_KEY="your-api-key-here"
export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.65"
export TRADE_SIDE="YES"
export SIMMER_VENUE="sim"  # or "polymarket" for real money

Run manually:

bash

python threshold_trader.py

Or let the automaton run it every 15 minutes (configured in clawhub.json).

Remixing

The core logic is in should_trade() — swap the fixed threshold for:

• Your ML model: Replace THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY with model predictions
• External APIs: Fetch signals from news feeds, social sentiment, or market data
• Multi-market strategies: Scan correlations across related markets
• Event-driven: React to external triggers (sports scores, election results)

The skill handles position sizing, safety checks, execution, and redemption. You focus on the signal.

Safety Features

• Flip-flop detection: Skips trades if you've been reversing positions too frequently
• Slippage protection: Avoids illiquid markets with high slippage
• Edge validation: Only trades when expected value exceeds threshold
• Dry-run default: Paper trades unless you explicitly pass --live

Examples

Paper trade YES when probability is above 70%:

bash

export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.70"
export TRADE_SIDE="YES"
python threshold_trader.py

Real money trade NO when probability is below 30%:

bash

export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.30"
export TRADE_SIDE="NO"
export SIMMER_VENUE="polymarket"
python threshold_trader.py --live

Requirements

• simmer-sdk >= 1.0.0
• Python >= 3.8
• SIMMER_API_KEY from simmer.markets/dashboard

---

name: threshold-trader description: Simple probability-threshold trading skill. Trades when market prices diverge from your configured threshold. Remixable template for custom signals. metadata: author: "Simmer Community" version: "1.0.0" displayName: "Threshold Trader" difficulty: "beginner"