Silke Manifold

Search, analyze, and trade on Manifold Markets prediction markets. Use when the user wants to look up prediction market odds, place bets, check their portfolio, or discuss Manifold markets.

Manifold Markets

Trade on prediction markets via the Manifold API. All commands output JSON.

Script path: {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py

Run with: python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py <command> [options]

Check Balance

bash

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py balance

Search Markets

bash

# Search by keyword
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "US election"

# Open binary markets, sorted by popularity
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "AI" --filter open --sort most-popular --limit 5

# Closing soon
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py search "" --filter closing-week --sort close-date

Filters: all, open, closed, resolved, closing-day, closing-week, closing-month

Sorts: most-popular, newest, score, daily-score, 24-hour-vol, liquidity, close-date, prob-descending, prob-ascending

Get Market Details & Probability

bash

# By ID
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py market <market-id>

# By slug (from URL)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py market some-market-slug

# Just the probability
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py prob <market-id>

Place Bets

bash

# Market order: bet 100 mana on YES
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES

# Limit order at 40% probability
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --limit-prob 0.40

# Dry run (simulate without executing)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --dry-run

# Bet on a specific answer in a multiple-choice market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 50 YES --answer-id <answer-id>

# Limit order that expires in 1 hour
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bet <contract-id> 100 YES --limit-prob 0.35 --expires-ms 3600000

Sell Shares

bash

# Sell all shares in a market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id>

# Sell specific outcome
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --outcome YES

# Sell partial shares
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --outcome NO --shares 50

# Sell in multiple-choice market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py sell <contract-id> --answer-id <answer-id>

Cancel Limit Order

bash

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py cancel <bet-id>

Portfolio & Positions

bash

# Your portfolio summary
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py portfolio

# Your current positions with contract details
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py my-positions --limit 10 --order profit

# Positions/leaderboard for a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py positions <contract-id> --top 10

# Your position in a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py positions <contract-id> --user-id <your-user-id>

Bet History

bash

# Your recent bets
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --username <your-username>

# Bets on a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --contract-id <contract-id>

# Open limit orders only
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py bets --username <your-username> --kinds open-limit

Your Profile

bash

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/manifold.py me

Notes

• All monetary amounts are in mana (M$). New accounts start with M$1,000.
• Limit orders use probabilities from 0.01 to 0.99 (two decimal places).
• Always use --dry-run first when the user asks to place a bet, so they can confirm the expected outcome before committing real mana.
• The search results include id fields — use these as contract-id for betting/selling.
• For multiple-choice markets, fetch market details first to see available answers and their IDs.
• API rate limit: 500 requests/minute.