Predict Future

Predicts what is likely to happen from a user's query by thinking through which forecasting theories fit, then applying one or more from references/. Use when the user names this skill or asks to forecast the near future.

Turn a user query into a forecast by thinking through which theories fit, then applying one or more prediction theories from references/. Present each theory's forecast separately — do not merge them into one authoritative conclusion. The value is rigor: fight overconfidence and ignoring base rates.

• Output language: respond in the same language the user used in their query.
• Theories live in references/ — think before you select; read only the files you chose; follow each file's "How to apply in this skill" section.

Workflow

Step 0: Set up the run folder

Generate a timestamp like YYYYMMDD-HHmmss and create output/{timestamp}/ (relative to the workspace root).

Step 1: Restate & clarify

State clearly what is being predicted and its current state. If critical information is missing, ask 1–3 of the most decisive questions before forecasting. For non-critical gaps, proceed using explicit labeled assumptions.

Step 2: Think through theory selection

Before reading or applying any reference, work through theory selection deliberately. Do not default to any file. Pick the minimum sufficient set that addresses the query's decisive uncertainty; add a second or third theory only when it materially improves the forecast.

Reference library

File	Thinker	Use when the query involves…
general_Philip_Tetlock.md	Philip Tetlock	Open-ended probabilistic forecasts, triage, Fermi decomposition, dragonfly eye, granular probabilities, Bayesian updating, outside view
finance_howard_marks.md	Howard Marks	Consensus vs. price, cycles, second-level thinking, credit/macro sentiment
finance_robert_shiller.md	Robert Shiller	Valuation (CAPE), narratives, bubbles, sentiment contagion
finance_hyman_minsky.md	Hyman Minsky	Credit fragility, financing regimes, systemic breakdown risk
tech_paul_saffo.md	Paul Saffo	Uncertainty mapping, S-curves, weak signals, when not to forecast
tech_geoffrey_moore.md	Geoffrey Moore	Product adoption stage, chasm, beachhead, whole product, GTM
tech_clayton_christensen.md	Clayton Christensen	Disruption vs. sustaining, industry shift, incumbent response
intl_structural_realism.md	Waltz / Mearsheimer	Great-power behavior, balance of power, balancing vs. buck-passing, long-run geopolitical trajectory
intl_bruce_bueno_de_mesquita.md	Bruce Bueno de Mesquita	Specific policy/negotiation/power-struggle outcomes via stakeholder bargaining; regime behavior (selectorate)
intl_thomas_schelling.md	Thomas Schelling	Crisis bargaining, deterrence vs. compellence, credibility, escalation, brinkmanship

When to include each theory (examples, not defaults)

Include…	When the decisive uncertainty is…
general_Philip_Tetlock.md	You need triage, reference-class/base-rate reasoning, decomposition, multi-angle synthesis, or calibrated probabilities — typical for open-ended "will X happen?" questions
finance_*	Price, narrative, consensus, cycles, or credit structure drive the answer
tech_*	Adoption stage, uncertainty mapping, disruption, or incumbent dynamics drive the answer
intl_*	International/state behavior, geopolitics, conflict, deterrence, or policy bargaining drive the answer

Domain signal	Typical starting candidates (still justify each)
Equities, bonds, credit, rates, macro, housing, sentiment	finance_howard_marks.md, finance_robert_shiller.md; finance_hyman_minsky.md if leverage/credit stress matters
Product launch, SaaS, platforms, startups, adoption, "will X disrupt Y?"	tech_geoffrey_moore.md, tech_clayton_christensen.md, tech_paul_saffo.md — pick by which uncertainty dominates
Great-power rivalry, war/crisis, deterrence, sanctions, treaties, foreign policy	intl_structural_realism.md for long-run structure; intl_bruce_bueno_de_mesquita.md for specific negotiated outcomes; intl_thomas_schelling.md for escalation/deterrence — pick by which uncertainty dominates
Elections, geopolitics, sports, one-off events	Often general_Philip_Tetlock.md alone — but only if probabilistic forecasting is appropriate; add intl_* when state-level strategy dominates

Write output/{timestamp}/theories-selected.md before reading any reference file:

• Per-file fit assessment (all ten files)
• Final list of selected references with rationale
• Explicit list of excluded references with rationale

Only then proceed to evidence gathering and application.

Step 3: Gather evidence

This step requires live research — do not rely on memory alone. Call at least one tool before applying theories

Tool	Use for
Search	Discover sources, base rates, recent news, and comparable cases
Web extraction	Full text of a specific URL from search results
Control browser	Pages that need interaction or JS rendering (e.g. X/Twitter, Reddit, TikTok, Xiaohongshu)，please close web tabs after you use this tool

Save every fetched/derived artifact as an intermediate file in the run folder. Do not fabricate facts; if something can't be verified, label it an assumption. Examples:

• output/{timestamp}/research-base-rates.md
• output/{timestamp}/research-scheduled-events.md
• output/{timestamp}/sources.md (URLs + key extracts)

Step 4: Apply selected theories

Apply each selected reference in turn. For every theory, produce a complete, standalone forecast — reasoning plus a clear prediction conclusion (outcome, probability or qualitative call, horizon, falsifiable triggers). Do not blend theories into one answer while applying them; disagreements between theories are a feature, not a bug.

Step 5: Final output file

Write output/{timestamp}/output.md with this structure (translate headings into the user's language). One section per applied theory, each ending with that theory's own prediction. Omit sections for theories you did not select. No merged "final verdict" — if theories disagree, present each view and optionally add a short cross-theory comparison noting agreements and tensions without picking a winner.

text

# Forecast: [subject]

## Original input
[User's query verbatim]

## Theory selection (reasoning)
- Decisive uncertainty: …
- Selected: [filename] — rationale
- Not selected: [filename] — rationale

## Selected forecasting theories
- [filename] — selection rationale
- …

## Evidence gathered
- [Key fact] — source / or labeled as assumption

## [Theory one, e.g. Tetlock]
[Reasoning per that reference's apply steps]

### [Theory one] — prediction
- Forecast: …
- Probability / qualitative call: …
- Confidence: …
- Falsifiable conditions: …

## [Theory two, e.g. Howard Marks]
[Reasoning per that reference's apply steps]

### [Theory two] — prediction
- Forecast: …
- …

## [Theory three, e.g. Geoffrey Moore]
…

## Cross-theory comparison (optional)
- Points of agreement: …
- Points of disagreement: …
(Compare only — do not merge into a single conclusion)

Tell the user the path to output/{timestamp}/output.md when done.