#weather#trading

Polymarket Weather Trader

fork of@simmer/polymarket-weather-trader(1.17.0)

Trade Polymarket weather markets using NOAA (US) and Open-Meteo (international) forecasts via Simmer API. Inspired by gopfan2's $2M+ strategy. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets, automate weather bets, check forecasts, or run gopfan2-style trading.

richducat@richducat

Install

openclaw skills install @richducat/dolph-weather-trader

Polymarket Weather Trader

Trade temperature markets on Polymarket using NOAA forecast data.

This is a template. The default signal is NOAA temperature forecasts — remix it with other weather APIs, different forecast models, or additional market types (precipitation, wind, etc.). The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, NOAA parsing, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

Trade weather markets automatically
Set up gopfan2-style temperature trading
Buy low on weather predictions
Check their weather trading positions
Configure trading thresholds or locations

What's New in v1.17.0

Volatility Targeting: Dynamic position sizing based on realized market volatility. Uses EWMA of log returns from price history. High vol → smaller positions, low vol → larger positions. Enable with --vol-targeting flag or SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_TARGETING=true.
- SIMMER_WEATHER_TARGET_VOL — target annualized vol (default 20%)
- SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_MAX_LEVERAGE — max scale-up multiplier (default 2.0x)
- SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_MIN_ALLOC — min allocation floor (default 20%)
- SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_SPAN — EWMA responsiveness (default 10)

v1.14.0

Fixed env var names to match autotune registry (old names still work as aliases):
- SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY → SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD
- SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT → SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD
- SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION → SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD
- SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES → SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN
New tunable: SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX — adjustable slippage safeguard (default 15%). Set higher for research mode on illiquid markets.
New tunable: SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_LIQUIDITY — skip markets with liquidity below this USD threshold (default 0 = disabled). Pre-filters thin markets before execution.
SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS and SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY now exposed as autotune tunables.

v1.13.0

Binary Only Mode: New SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY config to skip range-bucket events (e.g., "NYC 34-35°F") and only trade binary yes/no weather markets

v1.2.0

Max Trades Per Run: New SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES config to limit trades per scan cycle (default: 5)

v1.1.1

Status Script: New scripts/status.py for quick balance and position checks
API Reference: Added Quick Commands section with API endpoints

v1.1.0

Source Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:weather for portfolio tracking
Smart Sizing: Position sizing based on available balance (--smart-sizing)
Context Safeguards: Checks for flip-flop warnings, slippage, time decay
Price Trend Detection: Detects recent price drops for stronger signals

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

Ask for Simmer API key
- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
- Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY
Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)
- This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
- Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
- The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)
- Entry threshold: When to buy (default 15¢)
- Exit threshold: When to sell (default 45¢)
- Max position: Amount per trade (default $2.00)
- Locations: Which cities to trade (default NYC)
Save settings to environment variables
Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

Configuration

Setting	Environment Variable	Default	Description
Entry threshold	`SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD`	0.15	Buy when price below this
Exit threshold	`SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	0.45	Sell when price above this
Max position	`SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD`	2.00	Maximum USD per trade
Max trades/run	`SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	5	Maximum trades per scan cycle
Locations	`SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS`	NYC	Comma-separated cities (NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)
Binary only	`SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY`	false	Skip range-bucket events (e.g., "34-35°F"), only trade binary yes/no markets
Smart sizing %	`SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT`	0.05	% of balance per trade
Slippage max	`SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	0.15	Skip trades with slippage above this (0.15 = 15%)
Min liquidity	`SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	0	Skip markets with liquidity below this USD amount (0 = disabled)
Vol targeting	`SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_TARGETING`	false	Enable volatility targeting for dynamic position sizing
Target vol	`SIMMER_WEATHER_TARGET_VOL`	0.20	Target annualized volatility (0.20 = 20%)
Vol max leverage	`SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_MAX_LEVERAGE`	2.0	Max scale-up multiplier in calm markets
Vol min alloc	`SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_MIN_ALLOC`	0.2	Min allocation floor in volatile markets (0.2 = 20%)
Vol EWMA span	`SIMMER_WEATHER_VOL_SPAN`	10	EWMA span for vol calculation (lower = more responsive)

Legacy env var aliases (still accepted for backwards compatibility): SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY, SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT, SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION, SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES

Supported locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami

Quick Commands

bash

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

bash

# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python weather_trader.py

# Execute real trades
python weather_trader.py --live

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing

# Check positions only
python weather_trader.py --positions

# View config
python weather_trader.py --config

# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python weather_trader.py --no-safeguards

# Disable trend detection
python weather_trader.py --no-trends

# Enable volatility targeting (dynamic sizing based on market vol)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing --vol-targeting

# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for high-frequency runs)
python weather_trader.py --live --quiet

# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

Fetches active weather markets from Simmer API
Groups markets by event (each temperature day is one event)
Parses event names to get location and date
Fetches NOAA forecast for that location/date
Finds the temperature bucket that matches the forecast
Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, time decay
Trend Detection: Looks for recent price drops (stronger buy signal)
Entry: If bucket price < threshold and safeguards pass → BUY
Exit: Checks open positions, sells if price > exit threshold
Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:weather for tracking

Smart Sizing

With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:

5% of available USDC balance (configurable via SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT)
Capped at max position setting ($2.00 default)
Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable

This prevents over-deployment and scales with your account size.

Volatility Targeting

With --vol-targeting, position sizes are dynamically adjusted based on realized market volatility:

text

position_size = base_size × clamp(target_vol / realized_vol, min_alloc, max_leverage)

High volatility (price swinging): positions scale down → less risk
Low volatility (price stable): positions scale up → more alpha capture
Falls back to base size if insufficient price history (< 15 data points)

Combines with smart sizing: first calculate base size from portfolio %, then apply the vol multiplier.

Safeguards

Before trading, the skill checks:

Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
Time decay: Skips if market resolves in < 2 hours
Market status: Skips if market already resolved

Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).

Source Tagging

All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:weather". This means:

Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
Copytrading skill won't sell your weather positions
You can track weather P&L separately

Example Output

text

🌤️ Simmer Weather Trading Skill
==================================================

⚙️ Configuration:
  Entry threshold: 15% (buy below this)
  Exit threshold:  45% (sell above this)
  Max position:    $2.00
  Locations:       NYC
  Smart sizing:    ✓ Enabled
  Safeguards:      ✓ Enabled
  Trend detection: ✓ Enabled

💰 Portfolio:
  Balance: $150.00
  Exposure: $45.00
  Positions: 8

📍 NYC 2026-01-28 (high temp)
  NOAA forecast: 34°F
  Matching bucket: 34-35°F @ $0.12
  💡 Smart sizing: $2.00 (capped at max position)
  ✅ Below threshold ($0.15) - BUY opportunity! 📉 (dropped 15% in 24h)
  Executing trade...
  ✅ Bought 62.5 shares @ $0.12

📊 Summary:
  Events scanned: 12
  Entry opportunities: 1
  Trades executed: 1

Troubleshooting

"Safeguard blocked: Severe flip-flop warning"

You've been changing direction too much on this market
Wait before trading again

"Slippage too high"

Market is illiquid, reduce position size or skip

"Resolves in Xh - too soon"

Market resolving soon, risk is elevated

"No weather markets found"

Weather markets may not be active (seasonal)

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"

Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC
If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry

"API key invalid"

Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab

Polymarket Weather Trader

Install

Polymarket Weather Trader

When to Use This Skill

What's New in v1.17.0

v1.14.0

v1.13.0

v1.2.0

v1.1.1

v1.1.0

Setup Flow

Configuration

Quick Commands

Running the Skill

How It Works

Smart Sizing

Volatility Targeting

Safeguards

Source Tagging

Example Output

Troubleshooting

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