SK Hynix 2x Open Estimator

结合美韩实时价格、汇率与净值估算07709合理开盘价及风险

Estimate Hynix 2x Open

Estimate a timestamped NAV fair value and a separate tradable-price scenario. Treat KRX 000660 as the primary price anchor and SKHY as an overnight direction check.

Workflow

1. Record the analysis date, Hong Kong time, and intended estimate point.
   • KRX opens at 09:00 KST / 08:00 HKT.
   • SEHK opens at 09:30 HKT.
   • For a same-day SEHK opening estimate, use the latest KRX quote immediately before 09:30 HKT when available.
2. Fetch and timestamp these inputs:
   • 07709.HK last NAV per unit in HKD and prior SEHK market close.
   • KRX 000660 previous close, current-day open, and latest price.
   • Nasdaq SKHY.O previous close and latest close.
   • USD/KRW for ADR parity diagnostics.
   • Current and prior USD/HKD only if their change is material; otherwise use an HKD FX factor of 1.
3. Verify symbols before calculation.
   • Wind may normalize 07709.HK to 7709.HK.
   • Query Nasdaq as SKHY.O; bare SKHY may collide with another security.
   • Confirm the SKHY ADS ratio from a current primary filing. The current ratio is ten ADSs per common share because one ADS represents one-tenth of one common share.
4. Apply the price hierarchy:
   • Primary: actual KRX opening/latest return.
   • Secondary: SKHY overnight percentage return.
   • Diagnostic only: SKHY absolute-price parity after ADS and FX conversion.
5. Run the bundled calculator. Example:

bash

python3 scripts/estimate_open.py \
  --nav-hkd 27.249 \
  --product-prev-market 25.36 \
  --kr-prev-close 1322000 \
  --kr-open 1697000 \
  --kr-current 1628000 \
  --adr-prev-close 126.79 \
  --adr-close 149 \
  --usdkrw 1427.68

6. Report three separate outputs:
   • NAV理论价: prior NAV multiplied by the targeted 2x daily KRX return.
   • 折价延续价: NAV theoretical value with the prior 07709 market discount carried forward.
   • ADR信号价: prior NAV with 2x SKHY overnight return; label it a cross-check, never the main value when ADR parity is distorted.
7. Give one executable conclusion with a central price and a scenario range. State that the estimate changes one-for-one with the KRX input through the formula below.

Formulas

text

r_KR = P_KR,anchor / P_KR,prev_close - 1
NAV理论价 = NAV_prev × (1 + 2 × r_KR + tracking_adjustment) × HKD_FX_factor

r_ADR = P_ADR,close / P_ADR,prev_close - 1
ADR信号价 = NAV_prev × (1 + 2 × r_ADR)

ADR隐含韩股价 = P_ADR,close × 10 × USDKRW
ADR绝对溢价 = ADR隐含韩股价 / P_KR,anchor - 1

昨日07709折价 = P_07709,prev_close / NAV_prev - 1
折价延续价 = NAV理论价 × (1 + 昨日07709折价)

Do not use the prior 07709 market close as the leverage calculation base. That price already contains a secondary-market premium or discount.

Decision Rules

• If |ADR绝对溢价| > 5%, use SKHY only for percentage direction and flag impaired arbitrage.
• If the KRX market is open, the latest KRX return overrides the ADR return.
• If KRX has moved more than 20%, show both the KRX opening value and latest-price value because gap retracement materially changes 07709 fair value.
• If prior 07709 discount exceeds 5%, provide both NAV fair value and carried-discount tradable value.
• Do not treat the manager or market maker quote as the NAV itself. Separate fund NAV, indicative NAV, and exchange price.
• Do not call a point estimate exact. During extreme volatility, use a range of at least the ADR-signal value through the latest-KRX value, then explain which endpoint is more credible.

Risk Checks

Always check:

• NAV timestamp and whether it belongs to the immediately preceding dealing day.
• KRX circuit breaker, daily price limit, suspension, or delayed quote.
• Swap and option capacity, creation/redemption availability, and market-maker effectiveness.
• Intraday tracking error, high derivative financing costs, bid-ask spread, and one-day leverage reset.
• Large SKHY ADS premium caused by incomplete cross-border conversion/arbitrage.
• USD/HKD conversion between USD NAV and HKD trading price.

Read references/methodology.md for source priority, product-document facts, and interpretation limits.