Scenario Planning

Perform project management what-if (scenario) analysis to simulate risks, delays, and resource changes. Use when planning schedules, assessing uncertainty, or evaluating project impacts in tools like Excel, MS Project, or Primavera.

What-if Scenario Planning (WISA)

When to Use

Use this skill when:

• A project plan needs risk simulation before execution
• The user asks “what if this changes?” in a project context
• There is uncertainty in schedule, cost, or resources
• The user is working in Excel, MS Project, or similar tools

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Core Objective

Simulate alternate project scenarios by modifying key variables (duration, resources, cost) and evaluate their impact on:

• Project timeline
• Critical path
• Total cost
• Resource utilization

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Execution Steps

Step 1: Establish Baseline Plan

Ensure a complete baseline exists:

• Tasks with durations
• Dependencies (network/PERT)
• Resources assigned
• Cost estimates

If missing → ask user to define baseline first.

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Step 2: Identify Variables

Extract or ask for uncertain variables:

• Resource availability
• Task duration variability
• Budget constraints
• External risks (delays, logistics, approvals)

Focus only on high-impact variables (max 3 per scenario).

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Step 3: Define Scenario

Create a structured scenario:

Format:

• Scenario Name:
• Variable Change:
• Duration/Impact Change:
• Time Window (if applicable):

Example:

• Resource A unavailable for 3 days starting Day 10

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Step 4: Modify Project Model

If Excel:

• Adjust input cells (duration/resource %)
• Use:
  • Scenario Manager
  • Data Tables

If MS Project / Primavera:

• Duplicate baseline
• Modify:
  • Task duration
  • Resource allocation
  • Dependencies if needed

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Step 5: Simulate Impact

Recalculate project plan and capture:

• New project duration
• Critical path changes
• Cost variation
• Delayed milestones

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Step 6: Compare with Baseline

Create structured comparison:

Metric	Baseline	Scenario
Duration
Cost
Critical Path

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Step 7: Evaluate Acceptability

Decide:

• Acceptable → proceed with scenario plan
• Not acceptable → propose mitigation:
  • Add resources
  • Re-sequence tasks
  • Increase buffer

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Step 8: Recommend Action

Always provide:

• Impact summary
• Decision recommendation
• Optional mitigation strategies

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Output Format

Return results in this structure:

Scenario Summary

• Scenario:
• Key Change:

Impact Analysis

• Duration Change:
• Cost Impact:
• Critical Path Impact:

Recommendation

• Decision:
• Suggested Actions:

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Rules

• Do NOT simulate without a baseline
• Limit scenarios to avoid combinatorial explosion
• Prefer clarity over complexity
• Always quantify impact (time/cost)
• If data is missing → ask user before proceeding

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Notes

• This is deterministic scenario analysis (WISA)
• For probabilistic analysis, suggest Monte Carlo simulation
• Best used during planning and scheduling phase

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Validation

Before finalizing:

• Ensure dependencies are preserved
• Check calculations consistency
• Validate assumptions with user context
• Confirm outputs are realistic (no negative durations, etc.)