Market Brief

Produce a decision-useful market brief on any token, sector, or macro question. Format is consistent and structured — drivers, scenarios, uncertainty, practical read. Triggers: 'market brief on X', 'analyze Y', 'what's the call on Z', 'price target for', 'swing trade thesis', 'how should I think about'. Skip for simple price lookups or factual questions.

Consistent, decision-useful market analysis for crypto, equities, FX, or macro topics. Avoids shallow takes; emphasizes drivers, scenarios, uncertainty, and practical reads.

When to use

• ✅ Token / asset price analysis (swing trade or position sizing)
• ✅ Sector thesis (DeFi, L1s, RWA, fintech, etc.)
• ✅ Macro / rate / liquidity calls
• ✅ Project / protocol due diligence with a market angle
• ❌ Simple factual price lookup — just answer it
• ❌ Pure research without a market view — use researcher instead

Required output shape

Every brief follows this exact structure. Don't skip sections.

1. TL;DR (1–3 lines)

   • The actual call / position / view in plain language
   • Conviction: high | medium | low
   • Time horizon: days / weeks / months

2. Current state (≤5 lines)

   • Price / level
   • Recent action (last 1–4 weeks)
   • Key on-chain or fundamental signals
   • Cite sources inline (URL or source name)

3. Drivers (bullets)

   • What's actually moving the asset
   • Catalysts with rough timing
   • Distinguish confirmed vs rumored

4. Scenarios (table or structured bullets)

   Scenario	Drivers	Target $	Probability
   Bull	...	...	...
   Base	...	...	...
   Bear	...	...	...

5. Key uncertainty (≤3 bullets)

   • What would invalidate the call
   • What info would change the view
   • Tail risks not in the base case

6. Practical read (1–3 lines)

   • What Daniel should actually do with this
   • Position sizing suggestion if relevant
   • Entry/exit triggers

Rules

• Distinguish verified vs inferred — separate what you confirmed from what you're guessing
• No "could maybe possibly" hedging — state the call, then qualify
• Cite sources for load-bearing claims (URL or named source)
• Use real numbers — specific price targets beat vague ranges
• Always include time horizon — different horizons change the call
• Admit when you don't have enough info — say so explicitly
• Don't manufacture confidence — if uncertainty is high, mark conviction low

Length

• Default: 250–400 words
• Deep-dive mode (when asked): 600–1000 words
• Always start with TL;DR — never bury the call

After the brief

If asked, follow up with:

• On-chain data check
• Funding rates / open interest
• Recent news flow
• Comparable asset analysis

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