Polymarket Brain

Automates geopolitical and macroeconomic news analysis, matches expert insights to Polymarket odds, and posts actionable trade recommendations to Discord.

Polymarket-Brain v1.1 - Complete Skill Documentation

🎯 Purpose

Automated geopolitical and macroeconomic analysis pipeline that:

1. Fetches breaking news from CNBC World Politics
2. Routes to expert analysts (geopolitics-expert / the-fed-agent)
3. Matches analyses to Polymarket prediction markets
4. Delivers actionable trading recommendations to Discord

End Goal: Identify market mispricing opportunities where expert probability diverges from market odds.

---

🏗️ Architecture (4 Phases)

Phase 1: CNBC News Fetching

Component: cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher

python

# Execution
cd cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher
python scripts/fetch_cnbc_geopolitics.py --config references/config.md --count 5

Behavior:

• Fetches exactly 5 articles from CNBC World Politics RSS
• Deduplicates against references/sent_urls.txt history
• Posts NEW articles individually to Discord (not batched)
• Exit code 0 always (even when no new articles)

Webhook: https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/...

History Management:

• Tracks all sent URLs in sent_urls.txt
• Skips duplicates forever
• Growth = fewer posts over time (expected, not broken)

No New Articles Behavior:

• Does NOT post to Discord
• Returns exit code 0
• Orchestrator skips Phases 2-4 (no analysis, no market matching, no Discord posts)
• Prints console notification only (not sent to Discord)
• Clean exit with clear status message

---

Phase 2: Expert Analysis

Classification Logic:

News Content	Classification	Expert Skill
Military strikes, troop movements, Iran, Russia, Middle East, oil, war	Geopolitics	geopolitics-expert
Fed decisions, inflation, employment, Treasury yields, rates, currency	Macroeconomics	the-fed-agent
Mixed (war + markets, oil + Fed)	Both	Run both skills

Expert Models:

geopolitics-expert

Frameworks:

• IRGCistan: Military-dominated state analysis
• Hormuz Siege: Blockade impact assessment
• Five Pathways: Conflict termination probabilities

Outputs:

• Conflict duration probability
• Commodity impacts (oil, gold, USD)
• Trading opportunities

the-fed-agent

Frameworks:

• Dot Plot Analysis: Fed stance changes
• Oil Stagflation: Energy shock impact
• FX Strategies: EUR/USD positioning

Outputs:

• Rate hike probability
• Stagflation risk assessment
• Currency recommendations

---

Phase 3: Market Matching

8 Monitored Polymarket Markets:

#	Market Name	Resolution Date	Expert Probability
1	Will Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Jun 30, 2026	15%
2	US-Iran ceasefire by December 31	Dec 31, 2026	55%
3	Iran conflict ends by December 31	Dec 31, 2026	60%
4	US forces enter Iran by December 31	Dec 31, 2026	35%
5	Iran leadership change by December 31	Dec 31, 2026	85%
6	Fed decision in March	Mar 2026	95%
7	Will crude oil CL hit $100+ by end of March	Mar 2026	90%
8	US recession by end of 2026	End 2026	40%

Matching Process:

1. Extract market odds from Polymarket (hardcoded in v1.1)
2. Apply expert probability assessment from Phase 2
3. Calculate edge (market vs expert mispricing)
4. Generate recommendation (Strong Yes/No, Lean, Fair Value)

Recommendation Logic:

Market Odds	Expert Prob	Gap	Recommendation
< 30% Yes	Expert > 50%	20%+	Strong Yes ✅
> 70% Yes	Expert < 50%	20%+	Strong No ❌
Similar	Similar	< 10%	Fair Value ⚖️
Expert > 70%	Market < 70%	-	Underpricing
Expert < 40%	Market > 60%	-	Overpricing

---

Phase 4: Discord Dispatch

Message Format:

Header:

text

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧠 POLYMARKET-BRAIN WORKFLOW ACTIVATED
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Time: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS
Version: 1.1
Markets Analyzing: X

Each Market (sent individually, 1.2s delay):

text

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧠 POLYMARKET-BRAIN ANALYSIS: MARKET N/X
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📌 MARKET: [Market Name]

📅 Resolution Date: [Date]
📊 Market Odds: XX% Yes
🎯 Expert Probability: XX% Yes
💡 Recommendation: [Emoji] [Text]

📝 REASONING:
[Detailed reasoning from expert analysis]

🔗 Link: [Polymarket URL]

📈 Edge: XX% market mispricing

Analyzed by: [expert] | Confidence: HIGH

Summary:

text

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧠 POLYMARKET-BRAIN WORKFLOW COMPLETE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Summary:
• Total Markets Analyzed: X
• Strong Buys (Yes): X
• Strong Sells (No): X
• Expert Sources: [list]
• Data Source: CNBC World Politics

⏱️ Workflow Time: [timestamp]
🔄 Next Update: Check back for fresh analysis

Disclaimer: This is automated analysis. Not financial advice.

Rate Limit: 1.2 seconds between ALL messages (prevents Discord 429 rate limiting)

Webhook: https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1483478506070474922/...

---

🔧 Installation & Migration

Fresh Environment Setup

Step 1: Copy Skills

bash

# Windows
xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills" "D:\new-env\.browseros\skills"

# Linux/Mac
cp -r ~/.browseros/skills /new/path/.browseros/skills

Step 2: Verify Python Dependencies

bash

pip install requests crawl4ai python-dateutil
pip list | findstr "requests crawl4ai"

Step 3: Configure Webhooks

CNBC Fetcher: Edit cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher/references/config.md:

text

DISCORD_WEBHOOK=https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY_HERE

Polymarket Brain: Edit polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py (lines 15-16):

python

PHASE1_DISCORD_WEBHOOK = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY"
PHASE4_DISCORD_WEBHOOK = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1483478506070474922/YOUR_KEY"

Step 4: Test Run

bash

cd polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Expected: 5 articles posted, 5-8 markets analyzed, all sent to Discord.

---

🚨 Troubleshooting Guide

Issue: 403 Forbidden on Discord Post

Cause: Missing User-Agent header in urllib requests

Fix:

python

req = urllib.request.Request(webhook_url, data=data, headers={
    'User-Agent': 'Polymarket-Brain/1.1',
    'Content-Type': 'application/json'
})

Issue: 400 Bad Request

Cause: Message exceeds Discord 2000 character limit

Fix: Shorten separator from "━" * 50 to fixed 40 chars

Issue: No Articles Posted to Discord

Cause: All URLs already in sent_urls.txt history

Fix: This is EXPECTED behavior. History growth = fewer new articles. For testing: type nul > references/sent_urls.txt

Issue: Invalid Polymarket URL (404)

Cause: Double underscores in URL (__) instead of hyphens

Fix:

python

# Wrong: https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit__-by-end-of-march
# Right: https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-100-by-end-of-march

Issue: Placeholder Reasoning in Messages

Cause: Hardcoded text instead of expert analysis

Fix: Use actual reasoning field from expert analysis output

Issue: Rate Limiting (429 Too Many Requests)

Cause: Rapid sequential posts without delay

Fix: Add time.sleep(1.2) between ALL Discord messages

Issue: PowerShell Variable Parsing Errors

Cause: PowerShell one-liners with %VARIABLE% syntax

Fix: Use batch files (.bat) instead of PowerShell for Windows

Issue: Path with Spaces Fails

Cause: "Legion 5i Pro" breaks command parsing

Fix: Use short name Legion~1 or full quotes:

cmd

cd "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain"

---

📁 File Structure

text

polymarket-brain/
├── polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py    # Main orchestrator (edit webhooks here)
├── SKILL.md                            # This documentation
├── README.md                           # Quick start guide
├── VERSION                             # v1.1
├── output/                             # Analysis JSON outputs (auto-created)
│   ├── analysis_input_1.json
│   ├── analysis_input_2.json
│   └── ...
└── logs/                               # Execution logs (auto-created)

cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher/
├── scripts/
│   └── fetch_cnbc_geopolitics.py       # News fetcher script
├── references/
│   ├── config.md                       # Webhook config (LOCKED - edit here)
│   └── sent_urls.txt                   # URL history (clear for test)
├── SKILL.md                            # Detailed fetcher docs
└── LOCKED.md                           # Protection marker (READ BEFORE EDIT)

---

🧪 Testing Commands

Production Run

cmd

cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Fresh Test (Clear History)

cmd

type nul > C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher\references\sent_urls.txt
cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Verify Webhooks

python

import requests
webhook = "https://discord.com/api/webhooks/1482043765471445333/YOUR_KEY"
response = requests.post(webhook, json={"content": "test"})
print(response.status_code)  # Should be 204

---

📊 Expert Probability Reference

Geopolitics-Expert Mappings

Market	Expert Prob	Reasoning Framework
Iran regime fall	15%	IRGC institutional depth, loyalty purges
US-Iran ceasefire	55%	Trump unilateral stance, forever war risk
Iran conflict ends	60%	Five Pathways, 35% forever war
US forces enter Iran	35%	Ground invasion unlikely, air sufficient
Iran leadership change	85%	ALREADY OCCURRED (Mojtaba appointed)
Oil $100+ March	90%	Hormuz closure 40%, oil $140-160 risk

The-Fed-Agent Mappings

Market	Expert Prob	Reasoning Framework
Fed decision March	95%	Fed HOLD at 95% per CME FedWatch
US recession 2026	40%	Stagflationary pressure, oil shocks

---

🔐 Security & Best Practices

Webhook Security

• Never commit webhook URLs to version control
• Use environment variables in production:

  python

  import os
  PHASE1_WEBHOOK = os.environ.get('PHASE1_DISCORD_WEBHOOK')
  

Rate Limiting

• Always add 1.2s delay between Discord posts
• Monitor for 429 responses
• Implement exponential backoff if needed

History Management

• Never delete sent_urls.txt in production
• Only clear for testing purposes
• Backup before clearing: copy sent_urls.txt sent_urls.txt.bak

Error Handling

• Always exit 0 even when no new articles
• Log all errors to logs/ directory
• Notify user clearly when workflow stops

---

🔄 Version History

Version	Date	Changes
v1.1	2026-03-19	No-new-news fix: Skip Phases 2-4 when no new articles, console notification only (no Discord post), PROD/TEST mode via env var
v1.1	2026-03-18	Production deploy, migration docs, troubleshooting guide, expert reasoning populated
v1.0	2026-03-18	Initial orchestration, all 4 phases working, webhooks fixed, URLs valid

---

📞 Quick Reference

Skill Location: C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain\

Run Command:

cmd

cd C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain
python polymarket_brain_orchestrator.py

Webhooks:

• Phase 1 (News): 1482043765471445333
• Phase 4 (Analysis): 1483478506070474922

History File: ..\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher\references\sent_urls.txt

Test Mode: Clear history file before run

---

🎓 Learning Path for New Environments

1. Read this SKILL.md completely (you're here now ✅)
2. Read README.md for quick start
3. Copy skills folder to new environment
4. Configure webhooks in both config files
5. Install dependencies: pip install requests crawl4ai
6. Test run with history cleared
7. Verify Discord receives all messages
8. Deploy to production (stop clearing history)

Time Estimate: 15-30 minutes for full setup

---

💾 Backup & Restore

Backup Command

cmd

xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain" "D:\backup\polymarket-brain"
xcopy /E /I "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher" "D:\backup\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher"

Restore Command

cmd

xcopy /E /I "D:\backup\polymarket-brain" "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\polymarket-brain"
xcopy /E /I "D:\backup\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher" "C:\Users\Legion 5i Pro\.browseros\skills\cnbc-geopolitics-fetcher"

---

🎯 Success Criteria

✅ Phase 1: 5 articles fetched, posted to Discord ✅ Phase 2: Expert analyses generated (geopolitics/fed) ✅ Phase 3: Markets matched with recommendations ✅ Phase 4: All messages sent to Discord (no 403/400 errors) ✅ URLs: All Polymarket links valid (no 404) ✅ Reasoning: Actual expert analysis (no placeholders) ✅ Rate Limiting: No 429 errors (1.2s delays working)

If all ✅, deployment successful.