Polymarket Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

Detects crisis and news spikes across other Polymarket markets and adjusts expected posting rates upward for post-count bins. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit the correlation between global events and public figure posting frequency.

Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses other Polymarket markets as a crisis barometer — remix it with VIX/fear indices, Google Trends velocity, news API sentiment, or social listening platforms.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

When a geopolitical crisis erupts, politicians tweet 50% more. When crypto crashes, Elon and CZ spike their posting rates. Post-count bin markets are priced on baseline cadence — they don't factor in real-time news intensity.

This skill uses OTHER Polymarket markets as a crisis detector. Extreme probabilities on war/crypto/health markets = crisis mode = higher posting rates expected.

Signal Logic

Crisis Detection

1. Scan all non-posting markets on the account
2. Identify markets at extreme probabilities (>85% or <15%) with crisis-adjacent keywords
3. Match crisis topics to person affinity (Trump reacts to war, Elon to crypto)
4. Compute per-person crisis multiplier

Person Crisis Boosts

Person	Max Crisis Boost	Top Triggers
Trump	1.50x	War, sanctions, tariffs, impeachment
Elon	1.40x	BTC, tariffs, bans, AI
CZ	1.30x	BTC, Binance, SEC, hacks
Vitalik	1.25x	ETH, BTC, DeFi, regulation

Cross-Market Intelligence

The skill reads your entire Simmer portfolio as a sentiment layer. The more extreme markets you have imported, the better the crisis signal.

Remix Ideas

• VIX correlation: Track VIX changes as a universal fear proxy
• Google Trends velocity: Detect sudden search spikes on person-relevant topics
• News API: Real-time headline sentiment scoring
• Twitter API: Direct activity monitoring (mentions, replies, quote tweets)

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across events

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.