Polymarket Twitter Cross Contagion Trader

Trades post-count bin markets by detecting cross-person contagion where one public figure posting heavily causes correlated figures to increase their rate. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit inter-person posting correlation that markets price independently.

Twitter Cross-Contagion Trader

This is a template.
The default signal detects cross-person posting correlation from market prices — remix it with real-time Twitter API monitoring, topic co-occurrence tracking, or network graph analysis of reply/quote-tweet chains.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Public figures don't post in isolation. When Elon Musk enters a political debate, Trump often responds on Truth Social. When crypto crashes, both CZ and Vitalik spike their posting rates.

Markets price each person's bins independently. This skill exploits the cross-person correlation that markets miss.

Signal Logic

Phase 1: Detect Contagion

1. Group all post-count bin markets by person
2. Compute each person's "heat" — are the market prices shifted toward higher bins?
3. Positive heat = market expects more posts than baseline (person is "hot")

Phase 2: Apply Contagion Coefficients

Source	Target	Beta	Why
Elon	Trump	0.15	Political overlap, mutual commentary
Trump	Elon	0.12	Elon reacts to executive orders
Elon	Vitalik	0.08	Crypto topic overlap
Vitalik	Elon	0.06	Elon sometimes responds to ETH news
Elon	CZ	0.05	Crypto/exchange overlap

Phase 3: Trade with Adjusted Conviction

When person A is hot and beta(A->B) > 0, boost conviction on person B's higher bins.

Remix Ideas

• Real-time monitoring: Track actual post counts in real-time instead of inferring from market prices
• Reply chain analysis: @-mention graphs show direct contagion paths
• Topic clustering: NLP on recent posts to detect shared topics driving correlation
• Dynamic beta: Re-estimate contagion coefficients weekly from observed data

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across persons

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-cross-contagion-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.