Polymarket Twitter Bin Decay Trader

Trades post-count bin markets by tracking elapsed time to identify mathematically dead bins that still hold residual probability. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit time-decay mispricing in Twitter post-count markets where bins can no longer resolve YES.

Twitter Bin Decay Trader

This is a template.
The default signal estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and daily rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade scrapers, or Polymarket order flow analysis.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period progresses, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to update.

This skill tracks the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

Signal Logic

Viability Computation

1. Parse start/end dates from market question
2. Compute elapsed_fraction = (now - start) / (end - start)
3. Estimate posts_so_far = elapsed_fraction * daily_rate * period_days
4. Calculate reachable range:
   • max_total = posts_so_far + max_daily_rate * remaining_days
   • min_total = posts_so_far + 0.3 * daily_rate * remaining_days
5. If bin_lower > max_total → bin is dead (unreachable)
6. If bin_upper < min_total → bin is dead (already surpassed)

Max Daily Rates (Historical Extremes)

Person	Avg Daily	Max Daily	Notes
Elon Musk	65	120	Thread storms can 2x rate
Donald Trump	23	50	Rally days spike
Vitalik	8	20	Conference days
CZ	12	30	Exchange drama days

Trading Dead Bins

• Dead bin priced >62% → strong NO signal (sell the corpse)
• Viable bin priced <38% and on-trajectory → YES signal (buy the survivor)
• Conviction scales with both threshold distance AND viability confidence

Remix Ideas

• Real-time post counting: Replace estimation with actual count from Twitter API
• Velocity tracking: Track rate changes within the period (accelerating vs decelerating)
• Multi-bin portfolio: Short dead bins and long viable bins simultaneously for hedge

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across bins

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.