Polymarket Space Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on space launches, SpaceX milestones, satellite deployments, Mars missions, and commercial spaceflight outcomes. Use when you want to capture alpha on the rapidly growing space exploration market with 22% CAGR and clear binary resolution criteria.

Space & Launch Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + FAA/SpaceX launch schedule alignment — remix it with NASA launch manifest APIs, TLE (Two-Line Element) satellite tracking data, or social media sentiment from SpaceX/Blue Origin announcements.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Space prediction markets have shown $120M+ cumulative volume (2020–2025) with 22% CAGR. Polymarket currently lists 106+ active space markets. This skill trades:

• SpaceX milestones — Starship orbital tests, launch counts, Starlink constellation size
• Mars missions — NASA/private mission announcements and landing events
• Commercial spaceflight — Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Axiom Space timelines
• Satellite & telecom — Orbital congestion, direct-to-cell launch milestones
• Regulatory events — FAA approvals, international launch cadence comparisons

Key insight: volatility spikes ~25% around launch events, creating short-window entry opportunities for informed traders.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Operator Reliability Bias

1. Discover active space/launch markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply mission_bias() multiplier based on operator track record in the question
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Mission Bias (built-in, no API required)

Retail traders apply uniform skepticism across all space markets, ignoring the vast difference in historical reliability between operators. mission_bias() encodes documented success rates directly into position sizing:

Operator / Mission	Track record	Multiplier
Falcon 9 / Starlink deployments	~98% mission success	1.35x
SpaceX / Crew Dragon (general)	~95% success	1.25x
Starship (test vehicle)	Rapidly improving, ~60%+	1.10x
Blue Origin / New Glenn	Lower cadence, less proven	0.90x
NASA Artemis / SLS	Chronic delays, over-budget	0.80x
Mars missions (any operator)	Retail overprice enthusiasm	0.75x
Virgin Galactic	Multiple delays, financial struggles	0.70x

Example: Falcon 9 launch success market at 25% → conviction 34% × 1.35x = 46% → $14 position. NASA SLS timeline market at same price → 34% × 0.80x = 27% → $8.

Remix Ideas

• FAA NOTAM filings: Public Notice to Air Missions filed days ahead of launch — feed scheduled probability into p to trade divergence with market
• Next Spaceflight / Rocket Watch: Public launch calendars as leading probability signal
• NASA API: Real-time mission status and telemetry feeds
• Satellite TLE data: Verify actual Starlink constellation count vs market claims before milestone markets resolve

Market Categories Tracked

python

KEYWORDS = [
    'SpaceX', 'Starship', 'Starlink', 'Falcon 9', 'Crew Dragon',
    'launch', 'rocket', 'Mars', 'Moon', 'lunar',
    'NASA', 'Artemis', 'SLS', 'Blue Origin', 'New Glenn',
    'Virgin Galactic', 'Axiom', 'satellite', 'orbital', 'ISS',
    'FAA', 'launch window', 'ESA', 'JAXA',
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$30 USDC	Space markets have good liquidity
Min market volume	$2,500	Space community is engaged
Max bid-ask spread	8%	Tighter than climate markets
Min days to resolution	3	Short-window launch events are tradable
Max open positions	6	Space events cluster by launch window

Volatility Note

Space markets spike sharply on anomaly news. If a launch is scrubbed, NO prices spike immediately. The skill detects these via context flip-flop warnings and pauses during high-volatility windows unless edge is strong.

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-space-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 10 minutes (*/10 * * * *). Launch events can resolve rapidly; tighter loop than other categories.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	30	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	2500	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread (0.08 = 8%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	3	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	6	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.