Polymarket Nordic Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on Scandinavian and Nordic events — Swedish politics, Norwegian economy, Danish infrastructure, Nordic business milestones (Spotify, Northvolt, Klarna), local weather extremes, and regional sports outcomes. Use when you want to capture alpha on underserved Nordic markets where local knowledge is a structural edge.

Nordic & Scandinavian Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + Swedish/Nordic news feed monitoring — remix it with Riksdagen API for legislative tracking, SCB (Statistics Sweden) data releases, Affärsvärlden market feeds, or Spotify investor relations signals.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Nordic markets are one of the most underserved categories on global prediction platforms. Traders with genuine local knowledge — Swedish politics, Scandinavian business news, Nordic weather patterns — hold structural information advantages over global retail traders.

This skill trades:

• Swedish politics — Government formation, Riksdag legislative milestones
• Nordic business — Spotify profitability, Northvolt recovery, Klarna/unicorn IPOs
• Infrastructure — Förbifart Stockholm, Malmö Arena, high-speed rail announcements
• Sports — Champions League Nordic teams, Swedish/Norwegian international competitions
• Local weather — Stockholm heatwaves, Öresund ice crossing, Oslo snowfall records
• Culture — Melodifestivalen viewership, Way Out West attendance

Key edge: the vast majority of Polymarket liquidity is US/global retail. Nordic-specific markets will have mispriced odds whenever the resolver requires local knowledge.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Local Edge Bias

1. Discover markets matching Nordic/Scandinavian keywords
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply local_edge_bias() — combines CET timezone timing with domain confidence
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Local Edge Bias (built-in, no API required)

local_edge_bias() multiplies conviction using two factors simultaneously:

Factor 1 — CET Timezone Window

Nordic news breaks during CET business hours (approx 06:00–18:00 UTC). Polymarket is US-dominated — repricing on Nordic news takes 2–6 hours. Trading inside the window means information is still fresh.

Time (UTC)	Multiplier	Why
06:00–18:00	1.2x	CET business hours — Nordic news is fresh, US retail hasn't caught up
18:00–06:00	0.9x	Outside window — advantage likely already priced in

Factor 2 — Domain Confidence

Domain	Multiplier	Why
Riksdag / politics / elections	1.20x	Public structured data, predictable process
Nordic tech (Spotify, Klarna, Northvolt)	1.15x	Swedish business press is early and detailed
SMHI / local weather	1.10x	Swedish forecasts published before English-language coverage
Sports / culture (Zlatan, Melodifestivalen)	0.85x	High randomness, hard to model

Combined multiplier is capped at 1.40x to avoid over-sizing on illiquid markets.

Example: Riksdag vote question at 25% during CET hours → conviction 34% × (1.2 × 1.2 = 1.40x capped) = 48% → $10 position. Same question at 01:00 UTC → 34% × (0.9 × 1.2 = 1.08x) = 37% → $7.

Remix Ideas

• Riksdagen API: Feed live voting data into p — trade divergence between parliamentary consensus and market price
• SMHI API: Replace market probability with SMHI forecast confidence for weather markets
• SVT/Di.se RSS: Monitor Swedish news feeds for events that haven't hit English-language sources yet
• Avanza/Nordnet sentiment: Swedish retail stock sentiment as proxy for Nordic tech markets
• SCB data releases: Statistics Sweden economic releases as leading indicator for macro markets

Market Categories Tracked

python

KEYWORDS = [
    'Sweden', 'Sverige', 'Stockholm', 'Malmö', 'Göteborg',
    'Norway', 'Norge', 'Oslo', 'Denmark', 'Danmark', 'Copenhagen',
    'Finland', 'Helsinki', 'Nordic', 'Scandinavian',
    'Spotify', 'Northvolt', 'Klarna', 'Ericsson', 'Volvo', 'IKEA',
    'Riksdag', 'Melodifestivalen', 'Zlatan', 'Allsvenskan',
    'SMHI', 'Öresund',
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$20 USDC	Nordic markets may be illiquid
Min market volume	$1,000	Accept lower liquidity for edge opportunity
Max bid-ask spread	20%	Niche markets have wider spreads
Min days to resolution	3	Local events can resolve quickly
Max open positions	8	Diversify across Nordic themes

Local Knowledge Edge

Information Advantage Examples

• Förbifart Stockholm: A Swedish civil engineer knows the tunnel's actual completion status better than US retail traders
• Northvolt bankruptcy: Swedish business press covered the restructuring in detail months before English-language coverage
• SMHI winter forecasts: Local seasonal weather outlooks are published in Swedish first
• Melodifestivalen: SVT viewership trends visible to Swedish residents immediately

Timing Edge

Swedish/Nordic news typically breaks in CET timezone (UTC+1/+2). US-dominated Polymarket markets take 2–6 hours to reprice on Nordic news.

Key Data Sources

• SMHI (Weather): https://www.smhi.se/
• Riksdagen (Parliament): https://data.riksdagen.se/
• SCB (Statistics): https://www.scb.se/
• SVT Nyheter: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/
• Di.se (Business): https://www.di.se/

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-nordic-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 15 minutes (*/15 * * * *). Nordic events follow business hours (CET); tighter polling during 06:00–22:00 CET recommended in remixes.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	20	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.20	Max bid-ask spread (0.20 = 20%, wider for niche markets)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	3	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.