Polymarket Micro Coin Lag Trader

Micro-trades altcoin 5-min Up/Down markets when BTC leads with strong directional bias and ETH/SOL/XRP haven't caught up yet.

Micro Coin Lag Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects BTC lead-lag patterns in 5-minute crypto Up/Down intervals and micro-trades altcoins that haven't caught up -- remix it with real-time BTC price feeds, multi-interval momentum, or altcoin beta weighting. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, time window grouping, lead-lag detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists 5-minute interval Up/Down markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These markets resolve based on whether each coin's price goes up or down in a specific 5-minute window. BTC leads the crypto market. When BTC shows strong directional bias in a given interval (>60% Up or >60% Down), altcoins in the same or next interval typically follow -- but with a 1-2 interval lag in price discovery on Polymarket. This creates a window where altcoin probabilities haven't yet absorbed BTC's move.

Example: BTC in the 10:05 AM ET slot is at 70% Up (strong lead signal, above 60% threshold). ETH in the same slot is only at 35% Up -- a 35% gap behind BTC. The skill detects this lag, computes conviction = min(1.0, 0.35 / 0.30) = 1.0, and places a YES trade at full size ($10). If ETH were at 62% instead, the gap would be only 8%, conviction = min(1.0, 0.08 / 0.30) = 0.27, and size = max($2, 0.27 * $10) = $2.67.

Edge

BTC is the bellwether of crypto. When BTC's Polymarket 5-minute interval shows strong directional bias, the information propagates to altcoins with a delay. Each coin's Polymarket order book is independent -- different participants, different liquidity depths, different reaction speeds. This structural lag means altcoin probabilities systematically underreact to BTC moves in the first 1-2 intervals. The skill captures this by detecting the gap between BTC's strong signal and the altcoin's lagging probability, trading the catch-up before the market corrects.

Signal Logic

1. Discover active crypto Up/Down 5-minute markets via keyword search + get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question: extract coin (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP), date, and time window
3. Normalize time windows to 5-minute buckets and group by (date, time_bucket)
4. Detect BTC lead signals: BTC p > LEAD_THRESHOLD (strong Up) or BTC p < 1 - LEAD_THRESHOLD (strong Down)
5. For each BTC lead signal, scan same-slot and next-slot altcoins for lag:
   • BTC strong Up + altcoin gap >= 8% behind BTC -> BUY YES on altcoin
   • BTC strong Down + altcoin gap >= 8% above BTC -> SELL NO on altcoin
6. Conviction = min(1.0, gap / 0.30) -- a 30% gap means full conviction
7. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction * MAX_POSITION) -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

• Real-time BTC price feed: Wire Binance BTCUSDT websocket to detect BTC direction before the Polymarket probability updates -- front-run the lag with even tighter timing
• Multi-interval momentum: Track BTC direction across 3+ consecutive intervals; if BTC shows 3 strong-Up intervals in a row, the lag signal is even stronger for altcoins that haven't caught up
• Altcoin beta weighting: SOL has higher beta to BTC than ETH; weight SOL lag signals with higher conviction since SOL should move more when it catches up
• Volume-weighted lag: If BTC's interval has high volume and the altcoin's has low volume, the lag is more likely real (thin market hasn't absorbed the information yet)

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	10	Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro)
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	2	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.12	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	15	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.42	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.58	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_LEAD_THRESHOLD	0.60	BTC must exceed this for a lead signal

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk