Polymarket 48h Sports Line Curve Trader

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game and detecting monotonicity violations and set-vs-match inconsistencies in tennis.

48h Sports Line Curve Trader

This is a template. The default signal is implied O/U curve violation detection across sports markets -- remix it with additional sports, line types, or cross-venue feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple over/under lines for the same sporting event:

• "Team A vs Team B O/U 5.5" = 50%
• "Team A vs Team B O/U 6.5" = 46%
• "Team A vs Team B O/U 7.5" = 29%

Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability curve -- higher totals must always be less likely for the OVER side.

This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: Sports Line Curve Arbitrage

Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break

The probability of going OVER a lower line must always be greater than or equal to going OVER a higher line:

text

P(O/U 5.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 6.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 7.5 OVER)

If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage.

Violation Type 2: Tennis Set vs Match Inconsistency

For tennis, the match total always equals or exceeds the Set 1 total. Therefore:

text

P(Match O/U X OVER) >= P(Set 1 O/U X OVER)

If a Set 1 O/U market is priced higher than the equivalent Match O/U market, the relationship is violated.

Why This Works

1. Retail trades in silos -- most users view each O/U line independently and do not cross-reference the full line ladder
2. No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity maintaining curve consistency across lines
3. Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied distribution
4. Applies across sports -- football, basketball, tennis, esports (kills, maps), baseball, hockey

Signal Logic

1. Discover all sports O/U markets via keyword search (O/U, total goals, total kills, etc.)
2. Parse each question: extract game/match name, O/U line value, scope (set or match)
3. Group into curves by (game, scope)
4. For each curve with 2+ points:
   • Check monotonicity: P(O/U X OVER) must decrease as X increases
   • Check tennis set-vs-match consistency
5. Rank violations by magnitude
6. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD)
7. Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade at full conviction
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION	0.03	Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade

Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-setters who enforce consistency across O/U lines for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each O/U market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:

• New O/U lines are added at previously unlisted values
• Large directional flow pushes one line without propagating to neighbors
• Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours
• Tennis set-level markets diverge from match-level markets

This skill treats the O/U line ladder as a probability curve and trades the repair.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk