Polymarket 48h Equity Strike Trader

Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same company and period, detecting monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies in strike ladders for PLTR, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq-100, and other equity markets.

48h Equity Strike Trader

This is a template. The default signal is implied-CDF violation detection across equity price-threshold markets -- remix it with additional tickers, curve-fitting models, or cross-venue price feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists equity strike-ladder markets analogous to options chains:

• "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $152?" = 7%
• "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $153?" = 23.5% <-- VIOLATION!
• "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $154?" = 18.5%
• "Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week above $370?" = 5%
• Tesla delivery bins: <350k=46%, 350-375k=47.5%, 375-400k=13.5%

Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability distribution curve across strike levels.

This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: Options-Chain Arbitrage for Prediction Markets

In traditional options markets, market makers enforce no-arbitrage pricing across strikes. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is its own order book.

Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break

The probability of being above a lower price must always be >= being above a higher price:

text

P(PLTR > $152) >= P(PLTR > $153) >= P(PLTR > $154)

If a higher strike is priced above a lower strike, the curve is broken.

Violation Type 2: Range-Sum Inconsistency

A "between" market's price must equal the difference of two "above" markets:

text

P($370 < MSFT < $380) == P(MSFT > $370) - P(MSFT > $380)

Violation Type 3: Bin-Sum Overflow/Underflow

When a market has exhaustive bins (e.g., Tesla deliveries), all bins must sum to ~100%:

text

P(<350k) + P(350-375k) + P(375-400k) + P(>400k) ~= 100%

Why This Works

1. Retail trades in silos -- most users view each market independently and don't cross-reference the full strike ladder
2. No options infrastructure -- unlike traditional markets, there's no market maker maintaining curve consistency across strikes
3. Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies, not subjective edge calls
4. Broad coverage -- applies to any equity/index with multiple strike-level markets

Signal Logic

1. Discover equity price-threshold markets via keyword search (MSFT, PLTR, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq, etc.)
2. Parse each question: extract ticker, strike price(s), date/period, and type (above/between/below)
3. Group into curves by (ticker, date/period)
4. For each curve with 2+ points:
   • Check monotonicity across "above" markets
   • Check range-sum consistency for "between" markets
   • Check bin-sum consistency for exhaustive bin sets
5. Rank violations by magnitude
6. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD)
7. Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade at full conviction
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION	0.03	Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade

Edge Thesis

Traditional options markets have market makers who enforce curve consistency (no-arbitrage pricing). Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:

• New markets are created at previously unlisted strikes
• Large directional flow pushes one strike without propagating to neighbors
• Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours
• Delivery/unit-count bin markets are added piecemeal without ensuring they sum correctly

This skill treats the equity strike ladder as a probability lattice and trades the repair.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk