Kalshi Fed Temporal Mono Trader

Exploits temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets on Kalshi. P(rate cut by June) >= P(rate cut by April) always -- if April is priced higher than June, that's an arbitrage. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

diagnostikon@diagnostikon

Install

openclaw skills install @diagnostikon/kalshi-fed-temporal-mono-trader

Kalshi Fed Temporal Monotonicity Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets -- remix it with live yield curve data, Fed funds futures, or options-implied probabilities. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Fed rate cut/hike markets across different meeting dates must satisfy temporal monotonicity: the probability of a cut "by June" must be >= the probability of a cut "by April", since June includes April. When this invariant is violated, we have a pure structural arbitrage.

Key advantages:

Mathematical certainty -- this is a logical invariant, not a statistical edge
No model risk -- the relationship P(by later) >= P(by earlier) is always true
Self-correcting -- violations are temporary mispricings that must converge

Signal Logic

Temporal Monotonicity

Scan all Fed rate cut/hike markets on Kalshi
Group by year and type (cut vs hike)
Sort chronologically by FOMC meeting date
Compare: if P(cut by April) > P(cut by June) + threshold, violation detected
Buy YES on the later (underpriced) date market

Conviction-Based Sizing

conviction = min(violation_size / violation_threshold, 2.0) / 2.0
size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
Larger violations = larger positions, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Violation threshold	3%	Min difference to trigger trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-temporal-mono-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
`SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD`	`0.03`	Min violation size to trigger trade
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	`0.45`	Sell position when price reaches this level
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_POSITION_USD`	`5.00`	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	`3`	Max trades per execution cycle
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	`0.15`	Max slippage before skipping trade
`SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	`0`	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.