Kalshi Fed Dot Plot Trader

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi using FOMC dot plot median implied rate path. Computes fair probability of cut/hike per meeting and trades when market diverges. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template. The default signal uses a static dot plot to compute fair probabilities -- remix it with live SEP data, Fed funds futures, or OIS-implied rates. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The FOMC dot plot median implies a rate path for 2026. This skill computes fair probability of at least one rate cut (or hike) by each meeting date from the implied path, then trades when Kalshi market prices diverge from these fair values.

Key advantages:

• Dot plot is the Fed's own forecast -- strongest available signal for rate expectations
• Updated quarterly -- each SEP release provides fresh data
• Mean-reverting -- market prices tend to converge to dot-plot-implied probabilities between meetings

Signal Logic

Dot Plot to Fair Probability

1. Load FOMC dot plot median rate path (updated after each SEP)
2. Compute implied cuts from current rate to each quarterly endpoint
3. Map cut count to probability of "at least one cut" by each meeting
4. Compare fair probability to Kalshi market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-dot-plot-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_FED_DOT_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_FED_DOT_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_FED_DOT_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping trade
SIMMER_FED_DOT_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.