Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi based on macro data releases (CPI, jobs). Scans CPI bin markets for implied CPI, adjusts rate cut probabilities using data sensitivity model. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template. The default signal uses static data sensitivity coefficients -- remix it with live BLS data feeds, real-time CPI nowcasts, or Fed funds futures reactions. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

After CPI/jobs data releases, Fed rate probabilities adjust predictably. This skill scans Kalshi CPI bin markets to compute the market-implied CPI, classifies the data regime (high CPI, low CPI, neutral), and adjusts the fair probability of a rate cut accordingly. When the adjustment creates a gap vs. rate cut market prices, it trades.

Key advantages:

• Data-driven -- uses market-implied CPI from Kalshi's own CPI bin markets
• Predictable reaction function -- high CPI is hawkish, low CPI is dovish
• Cross-market information -- extracts signal from CPI markets to trade rate markets

Signal Logic

Data Sensitivity Model

1. Scan CPI bin markets to compute probability-weighted implied CPI
2. Classify regime: high_cpi (>3.5%), low_cpi (<2.5%), or neutral
3. Apply sensitivity shift to baseline cut probability (50%)
4. Compare adjusted fair probability to rate cut market prices
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Sensitivity Coefficients

Regime	Cut Probability Shift
High CPI	-15% (hawkish)
Low CPI	+10% (dovish)
Strong jobs	-10% (hawkish)
Weak jobs	+15% (dovish)

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-fed-data-reaction-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_FED_DATA_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_FED_DATA_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_FED_DATA_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping trade
SIMMER_FED_DATA_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.