Kalshi Eth Btc Beta Trader

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi by exploiting the 1.3x beta relationship between ETH and BTC. When BTC odds shift, ETH markets lag behind -- this skill captures the catch-up. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template. The default signal uses a static 1.3x beta factor between ETH and BTC -- remix it with live correlation calculations, on-chain data feeds, or options-implied volatility surfaces. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

ETH historically moves approximately 1.3x BTC on a percentage basis. When Kalshi BTC price markets shift, the corresponding ETH markets often lag by several hours. This skill detects the BTC shift, computes the expected ETH fair price using the beta multiplier, and trades when the ETH market has not yet caught up.

Key advantages:

• Statistically documented beta relationship -- ETH/BTC correlation is well-studied
• Lag window is exploitable -- Kalshi ETH markets update slower than BTC markets
• Conviction-based sizing -- larger edge = larger position

Signal Logic

Beta Model

1. Fetch active BTC and ETH price markets from Kalshi
2. Detect recent BTC probability shifts (>2% moves)
3. Apply beta factor: ETH_expected_move = BTC_move * 1.3
4. Compare expected ETH price to current ETH market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Example (with defaults)

BTC Shift	ETH Expected	ETH Market	Edge	Action
+5%	+6.5%	+2%	+4.5%	BUY YES
-3%	-3.9%	-1%	-2.9%	BUY NO
+1%	+1.3%	+1%	+0.3%	Hold

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas

• Live correlation API: Replace static beta with rolling 30-day correlation
• Options-implied vol: Use BTC/ETH options skew for better beta estimates
• On-chain flows: Track large ETH/BTC exchange deposits for directional signals
• Multi-timeframe: Use 1h, 4h, and 24h beta windows for different market regimes

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	4	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default
Beta factor	1.3	ETH/BTC beta multiplier
Lag window	6h	Hours to look back for BTC shifts

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-eth-btc-beta-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	4	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_BETA	1.3	ETH/BTC beta multiplier
SIMMER_ETH_BTCBETA_LAG_HOURS	6.0	Hours to look back for BTC shifts

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.