Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader

Trades ETH price bin markets on Kalshi by exploiting the constraint that all bins must sum to 100%. When the sum deviates, identifies mispriced bins and trades toward rebalance. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template. The default signal uses the 100% sum constraint on price bins -- remix it with implied distribution fitting, volatility smile analysis, or cross-venue arbitrage. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Kalshi ETH price markets are structured as mutually exclusive bins (e.g., "ETH above $3000", "ETH $2500-$3000") that must sum to exactly 100%. When retail flow pushes individual bins out of alignment, the sum deviates from 100% and creates structural arbitrage.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- bins MUST sum to 100%, deviations are temporary
• No external data needed -- pure internal consistency check
• Self-correcting -- market makers eventually re-align bins

Signal Logic

Sum Constraint Model

1. Fetch all active ETH price bin markets from Kalshi
2. Group bins by resolution date (weekly, monthly)
3. Sum probabilities across all bins in each group
4. If sum deviates > sum_tolerance from 100%, flag the group
5. Normalize each bin: fair = current / total_sum
6. Trade bins where |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Example (with defaults)

Bin	Market P	Fair P (normalized)	Edge	Action
ETH $2000-$2500	25%	23.1%	-1.9%	Hold
ETH $2500-$3000	35%	32.4%	-2.6%	Hold
ETH $3000-$3500	30%	27.8%	-2.2%	Hold
ETH above $3500	18%	16.7%	-1.3%	Hold
Sum	108%	100%		Overpriced

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas

• Implied volatility fitting: Fit a lognormal distribution to bin prices
• Cross-venue arb: Compare Kalshi bin structure to Polymarket/Betfair
• Historical mean reversion: Track how fast bin sums revert to 100%
• Options-implied distribution: Use ETH options chain for fair bin prices

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	8%	Min per-bin edge to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Sum tolerance	5%	Min sum deviation to trigger analysis
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority -- keep this credential private.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	For live	Base58-encoded Solana private key for DFlow transactions.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_ENTRY_EDGE	0.08	Min per-bin edge to trigger trade
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SUM_TOLERANCE	0.05	Min bin sum deviation to trigger analysis

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.