Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader

Uses 7-day and 30-day price trend extrapolation to trade crypto year-end price target markets on Kalshi. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template.
The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end.

Signal Logic

Momentum Trend Model

1. Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH
2. Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection
3. Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption
4. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
5. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

• Live price API: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation
• Multiple timeframe ensemble: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals
• Volume-weighted momentum: Higher conviction when volume confirms
• Mean-reversion overlay: Dampen extreme trend signals

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.