Kalshi Crypto Correlation Trader

Exploits BTC/ETH correlation (beta=1.3) to trade ETH price-level markets when BTC makes a significant move. ETH tends to lag BTC moves, creating mispricing windows. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template.
The default signal uses a static BTC/ETH beta of 1.3 -- remix it with rolling correlation windows, multi-asset cointegration, or real-time price feed APIs.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

BTC and ETH are highly correlated, but ETH markets on Kalshi lag BTC moves by hours. This skill monitors BTC price-level markets as a leading indicator, computes ETH fair values using beta=1.3, and trades when ETH markets have not yet adjusted.

Key advantages:

• Well-documented correlation -- BTC/ETH beta is stable around 1.3
• ETH lags BTC -- retail-dominated Kalshi ETH markets update slowly
• Cross-asset signal -- uses BTC as a free leading indicator for ETH trades

Signal Logic

Correlation Model

1. Fetch BTC and ETH price-level markets
2. Compute BTC sentiment from average market probabilities
3. Apply beta=1.3 to derive ETH fair value adjustment
4. Compare adjusted fair value to ETH market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

• Rolling beta: Compute 30-day rolling BTC/ETH beta from price data
• Multi-asset: Add SOL, AVAX correlations for broader signal
• Real-time feeds: Use CoinGecko/Binance API for live price correlation
• Regime detection: Different beta in bull vs bear markets

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-correlation-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence between fair value and market to trigger trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)
SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.