Polymarket Twitter Bin Decay Trader

Data & APIs

Trades post-count bin markets by tracking elapsed time to identify mathematically dead bins that still hold residual probability. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit time-decay mispricing in Twitter post-count markets where bins can no longer resolve YES.

Install

openclaw skills install polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Twitter Bin Decay Trader

This is a template.
The default signal estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and daily rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade scrapers, or Polymarket order flow analysis.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period progresses, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to update.

This skill tracks the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

Signal Logic

Viability Computation

Parse start/end dates from market question
Compute elapsed_fraction = (now - start) / (end - start)
Estimate posts_so_far = elapsed_fraction * daily_rate * period_days
Calculate reachable range:
- max_total = posts_so_far + max_daily_rate * remaining_days
- min_total = posts_so_far + 0.3 * daily_rate * remaining_days
If bin_lower > max_total → bin is dead (unreachable)
If bin_upper < min_total → bin is dead (already surpassed)

Max Daily Rates (Historical Extremes)

Person	Avg Daily	Max Daily	Notes
Elon Musk	65	120	Thread storms can 2x rate
Donald Trump	23	50	Rally days spike
Vitalik	8	20	Conference days
CZ	12	30	Exchange drama days

Trading Dead Bins

Dead bin priced >62% → strong NO signal (sell the corpse)
Viable bin priced <38% and on-trajectory → YES signal (buy the survivor)
Conviction scales with both threshold distance AND viability confidence

Remix Ideas

Real-time post counting: Replace estimation with actual count from Twitter API
Velocity tracking: Track rate changes within the period (accelerating vs decelerating)
Multi-bin portfolio: Short dead bins and long viable bins simultaneously for hedge

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across bins

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call `--live`.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	`40`	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	`1000`	Min market volume filter (USD)
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	`0.10`	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	`0`	Min days until market resolves
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	`8`	Max concurrent open positions
`SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD`	`0.38`	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
`SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD`	`0.62`	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
`SIMMER_MIN_TRADE`	`5`	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.