Polymarket Copy Size Conviction Trader

Weights copytrading by portfolio concentration -- a whale committing 30% of capital to one market signals far more conviction than 2% spread across many. Copies high-concentration positions with proportionally boosted sizing.

Copy Size Conviction Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses portfolio concentration as a proxy for whale conviction. When a top trader commits a large fraction of their capital to a single market, that is a stronger signal than raw position size or trade count. The skill handles all plumbing (leaderboard scraping, activity reconstruction, concentration analysis, signal boosting, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha by tuning concentration thresholds.

Strategy Overview

Not all whale positions are equal. A trader who puts $100K into a market might be spreading $5M across 50 markets (low conviction) or concentrating $300K total into 3 markets (high conviction). This skill distinguishes between the two.

1. Discover top wallets from the predicting.top leaderboard
2. Reconstruct each wallet's portfolio from on-chain trade activity
3. Measure portfolio concentration: position_cost / total_portfolio_cost per market
4. Filter positions where concentration exceeds MIN_CONCENTRATION threshold
5. Boost trade sizing proportional to whale conviction level
6. Validate every trade against conviction-based YES/NO threshold bands

The Edge: Concentration as Conviction

Most copytrading tools treat all whale positions equally. A $50K position from a $5M whale (1% concentration) gets the same weight as a $50K position from a $150K whale (33% concentration). The second whale is clearly more convicted.

Signal Logic

Leaderboard (top N wallets)
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For each wallet:
  Fetch 200 most recent trades
  Reconstruct open positions (buys - sells per market)
  Compute concentration = position_cost / total_portfolio_cost
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Across all wallets:
  Find markets where any whale has concentration >= MIN_CONCENTRATION
  Aggregate: market -> [(wallet, side, concentration, cost), ...]
  Sort by max concentration descending
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For each high-conviction market:
  Match to Simmer market catalog
  Run compute_signal() for base conviction (YES/NO threshold bands)
  Verify whale side aligns with signal direction
  Apply concentration multiplier:
    conc_mult = 1 + min(CONCENTRATION_MULT - 1, concentration / 0.5)
    whale_boost = min(0.3, (num_whales - 1) * 0.1)  [if multiple whales agree]
    boosted_conviction = min(1.0, base_conviction * conc_mult + whale_boost)
    size = max(MIN_TRADE, round(boosted_conviction * MAX_POSITION, 2))
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Execute or paper-trade

Why This Works

• Concentration is observable: Unlike sentiment or conviction surveys, portfolio concentration is computed directly from on-chain data. It cannot be faked without moving real capital.
• Asymmetric information: Whales who concentrate are betting they know something. A 30% portfolio allocation implies the whale expects significant edge in that specific market.
• Multi-whale convergence: When multiple independent whales concentrate in the same market, the signal compounds. This is harder to game than a single whale's activity.
• Conviction alignment: The skill only trades when whale concentration aligns with the base YES/NO threshold signal, preventing blind copying into neutral or overpriced markets.

Example Dashboard

Market	Whale	Conc	Side	Size
Will X happen by June 2026?	0xabc12...	32%	yes	$4,200
Federal rate cut in Q3?	0xdef34...	28%	no	$8,100
Federal rate cut in Q3?	0x789ab...	15%	no	$2,900
Bitcoin above $150K by July?	0xcde56...	22%	yes	$6,500
Major tech IPO in 2026?	0xfab78...	11%	yes	$1,800

In this example, "Federal rate cut in Q3?" has two whales with high concentration on the same side -- the multi-whale boost kicks in for stronger conviction sizing.

Safety

Guard	Default	What it does
Paper mode	ON	No --live flag = simulated trades, zero risk
MAX_POSITION	$50	Cap per-trade size
MIN_TRADE	$5	Floor prevents trivially small orders
MAX_POSITIONS	8	Portfolio-level position limit
MAX_SPREAD	10%	Skip illiquid markets
MIN_DAYS	5	Skip markets resolving too soon
MIN_VOLUME	$3,000	Skip thin markets
YES/NO thresholds	0.38/0.62	Only trade within conviction bands
MIN_CONCENTRATION	10%	Ignore positions below this portfolio share
Side alignment	ON	Whale side must match signal direction
context_ok()	ON	Prevents exceeding max open positions

Tunables

All parameters are configurable via SIMMER_* environment variables and the Simmer UI:

Env Var	Default	Description
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	50	Max position size in USD
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Min trade size in USD
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	3000	Min market volume in USD
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	5	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	YES threshold for conviction bands
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	NO threshold for conviction bands
SIMMER_MIN_CONCENTRATION	0.10	Min portfolio concentration to qualify
SIMMER_CONCENTRATION_MULT	2.0	Max multiplier from concentration
SIMMER_LEADERBOARD_LIMIT	15	Top N wallets to analyze

Remix Ideas

• Sector concentration: Only count concentration within a category (crypto, politics, sports) to find domain-specialist whales
• Concentration velocity: Track how concentration changes over time -- a whale increasing from 10% to 30% is actively building conviction
• Inverse concentration: Fade whales who are decreasing concentration (selling down), as this signals loss of conviction
• Concentration clustering: Find markets where 3+ whales all have >15% concentration -- crowd conviction premium
• Time-weighted concentration: Weight recent positions more heavily than older ones when computing portfolio share
• Whale-relative sizing: Instead of a fixed multiplier, size proportional to the whale's actual dollar concentration

Dependency

Requires simmer-sdk (pip install simmer-sdk) and a valid SIMMER_API_KEY.