Polymarket 48h Sports Line Curve Trader
v0.0.3Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game...
48h Sports Line Curve Trader
This is a template. The default signal is implied O/U curve violation detection across sports markets -- remix it with additional sports, line types, or cross-venue feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Polymarket lists multiple over/under lines for the same sporting event:
- "Team A vs Team B O/U 5.5" = 50%
- "Team A vs Team B O/U 6.5" = 46%
- "Team A vs Team B O/U 7.5" = 29%
Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability curve -- higher totals must always be less likely for the OVER side.
This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.
The Edge: Sports Line Curve Arbitrage
Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break
The probability of going OVER a lower line must always be greater than or equal to going OVER a higher line:
P(O/U 5.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 6.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 7.5 OVER)
If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage.
Violation Type 2: Tennis Set vs Match Inconsistency
For tennis, the match total always equals or exceeds the Set 1 total. Therefore:
P(Match O/U X OVER) >= P(Set 1 O/U X OVER)
If a Set 1 O/U market is priced higher than the equivalent Match O/U market, the relationship is violated.
Why This Works
- Retail trades in silos -- most users view each O/U line independently and do not cross-reference the full line ladder
- No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity maintaining curve consistency across lines
- Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied distribution
- Applies across sports -- football, basketball, tennis, esports (kills, maps), baseball, hockey
Signal Logic
- Discover all sports O/U markets via keyword search (O/U, total goals, total kills, etc.)
- Parse each question: extract game/match name, O/U line value, scope (set or match)
- Group into curves by (game, scope)
- For each curve with 2+ points:
- Check monotonicity: P(O/U X OVER) must decrease as X increases
- Check tennis set-vs-match consistency
- Rank violations by magnitude
- Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (
YES_THRESHOLD/NO_THRESHOLD) - Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade at full conviction |
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions |
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES only if market probability <= this |
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO only if market probability >= this |
SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION | 0.03 | Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade |
Edge Thesis
Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-setters who enforce consistency across O/U lines for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each O/U market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:
- New O/U lines are added at previously unlisted values
- Large directional flow pushes one line without propagating to neighbors
- Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours
- Tennis set-level markets diverge from match-level markets
This skill treats the O/U line ladder as a probability curve and trades the repair.
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)