Freight Broker — Lane Pricing & Load Decision

Activate when: a freight broker must quote a lane and decide accept/counter/pass on a load or carrier rate; 'what should I quote', 'is this rate any good', margin vs win-probability on a lane. Do NOT activate when: a contracted rate already governs the lane (no decision).

Industry front door for decision-tree. Adds domain triggers, example, packs. Parent Process unchanged.

Activate when: quoting a shipper; deciding whether to accept a carrier's rate; spot vs contract; a tight-margin load; reposition/deadhead trade-offs. Do NOT activate when: a locked contract rate applies.

Why this variant

The parent decision-tree maps branching choices with payoffs and probabilities. A load quote is a decision tree: quote high (higher margin, lower win) vs low (win, thin margin) vs pass — against carrier cost, market rate, and relationship value.

Domain inputs → the tree

• Branch on: market lane rate (DAT/Truckstop benchmarks), carrier cost to cover, shipper relationship value, reposition/deadhead, timing/urgency.
• Roll back expected value: margin × win-probability, plus relationship option value for key shippers.
• Decide accept / counter / pass; protect against covering below carrier cost.

Worked example

Shipper offers $1,800; market ~$2,100; a carrier will haul for $1,650. → Tree: covering at $1,650 nets $150 — thin but the shipper is a top-5 account (relationship value). Counter to $1,950 first; if declined, take it to hold the account; pass only if no carrier covers profitably.

Packs

• Solo broker: quick margin × win-rate card per lane.
• Brokerage: benchmark-fed pricing rules; minimum-margin floors.

Red flags

• Quoting off gut, not the market benchmark.
• Covering below carrier cost to "win."
• Ignoring reposition/deadhead in true cost.

Verification

• Market benchmark pulled for the lane
• Carrier cost-to-cover known
• Margin × win-probability compared across accept/counter/pass
• Relationship/option value weighed for key accounts

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Part of deciqAI Knowledge Skills — 223 open-source thinking skills that make rigor executable for AI agents. The same skills power every deciqAI agent, which runs them autonomously to operate your company. See it run → https://www.deciqai.com/c/freight-lane-pricing-decision · ⭐ Star the repo → https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skills · Contributions welcome.