Iran Briefing

Real-time geopolitical intelligence — Iran crisis briefing, Trump Truth Social feed, prediction markets, 800+ tracked entities.

Capduck Intelligence — Decision Support Skill

When to use

• Iran: conflict, US-Iran tensions, Israel-Iran, Middle East geopolitics, oil/Hormuz, prediction markets, IRGC, IDF, ceasefire
• Trump: Truth Social posts, trade/tariff policy, Iran-war signals, energy, China, executive orders

Base URL

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https://skill.capduck.com/{topic}/{feed}

Available topics: iran, trump

How to think — the decision loop

Always start from the briefing. Let the data guide your next call. Do NOT call all endpoints.

Step 1: Assess — get the big picture

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curl -s "https://skill.capduck.com/iran"

The briefing contains situation assessment (tension 1-10, direction, key deltas), perspective summaries (with evidence strength), active threads (with signals and drill-down hints), and top events (impact >= 8, last 24h). Each section tells you where to look next.

Step 2: Investigate — follow the scent

• A thread mentions linked events -> /events?category=CONFLICT to read the evidence chain
• A claim has weak evidence -> /posts?source_type=osint to see if OSINT confirms
• Mainstream narrative unclear -> /news?region=us to see how US outlets frame it
• A thread links to prediction markets -> /polymarket for probability and trend
• Trump posted about Iran -> /trump?tags=iran-war to see his exact words

Step 3: Cross-reference — triangulate

• Compare official sources vs OSINT vs mainstream: /posts?source_type=state_media vs osint vs /news
• Use /notable to understand who a source is and which camp they belong to
• Use /entities?q=name to check credibility of an unfamiliar source
• Check source_count in events — 1 source = rumor, 5+ sources = confirmed
• Use /signals?ids=id1,id2 to batch-lookup raw data for thread signals

Step 4: Project — what happens next

• Look at Watch items in Active Threads: likelihood direction (rising/stable/falling), next milestones, decision makers
• Check /polymarket for market-implied probabilities and trend direction
• When polymarket diverges from briefing assessment, one of them is wrong — that's where investigation value is highest

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Iran Endpoints

All paths below are relative to https://skill.capduck.com.

/{topic} — Briefing (default)

AI-generated situation briefing, updated hourly. Contains:

• Situation Assessment — tension level (1-10), direction, 24h comparison, key deltas
• Perspective Summaries — 4 viewpoints with evidence strength (strong/moderate/weak)
• Active Threads — 3-5 issue threads with linked signals, watch items, polymarket refs
• Top Events — impact >= 8 from last 24h, with source attribution

/{topic}/events — Event timeline

Structured events with impact scoring and multi-source attribution.

Param	Description	Default
impact	Minimum impact score (1-10)	0
category	CONFLICT, DIPLOMACY, POLITICS, ECONOMY, PROTESTS	all
hours	Rolling window in hours	48
since	ISO 8601 timestamp (overrides hours)	—
limit	Max results	50

Each event includes: id, impact, confidence, sentiment, category, title / title_zh, summary / summary_zh, source_details[] (with display_name, entity_slug, platform, url), source_count, published_at.

/{topic}/posts — Social feed

Unified Twitter + Telegram posts with entity enrichment.

Param	Description	Default
source_type	news_agency, state_media, osint, gov_military, journalist, think_tank, other	all
category	Author category text filter	all
platform	twitter, telegram	all
event	Event UUID -> linked posts via source URLs	—
since	ISO 8601 timestamp	48h ago
limit	Max results	30

/{topic}/news — Mainstream media

Coverage from 18+ major outlets (Reuters, AP, CNN, NYT, Bloomberg, Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).

Param	Description	Default
region	intl, us, mideast, israel, persian, asia, russia, china, other	all
language	en, fa	all
event	Event UUID -> linked articles	—
since	ISO 8601 timestamp	48h ago
limit	Max results	30

/{topic}/polymarket — Prediction markets

Current probabilities, trend direction, and historical price ranges for Iran-related prediction markets.

Each condition includes: label/label_zh, yes_price (0-1), trend arrow with % change, historical min-max range.

/{topic}/notable — Curated key entities

~90 curated key sources grouped by role:

Group	What it represents
Iran Official	Khamenei.ir, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim — the regime's voice
Israel & Military	IDF, Netanyahu, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post — Israeli perspective
US Government	State Dept, CENTCOM, White House, Trump — US policy signals
International Organizations	IAEA, NATO, UN — multilateral stance
Key Media — Wire & Global	Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, NYT, Guardian — baseline narrative
Key Media — Regional & Specialist	Iran International, Al-Monitor, Bellingcat — specialist depth
OSINT & Prediction	Sentdefender, OSINT613, Polymarket — real-time ground truth
Think Tanks	Atlantic Council, Brookings, CFR — analytical framing
Key Activists & Opposition	Masih Alinejad, Reza Pahlavi, NCRI — diaspora/opposition voice

/{topic}/entities — Full source directory

800+ tracked entities. Also accessible via alias /sources.

Param	Description	Default
category	Filter by entity category	all
q	Text search (name + description)	—
limit	Max results	100

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Trump Endpoint

/trump — Full Trump Truth Social feed, auto-tagged by topic.

Param	Description	Default
tags	Comma-separated topic filter (iran-war, energy, trade, china, executive-order, etc.)	all
limit	Max results	50 (max: 200)
since	ISO 8601 or Unix timestamp	—
cursor	Pagination cursor (from meta.next_cursor)	—
lang	zh or en	zh
offset	Pagination offset	0

Each post includes: id, author_name, author_handle, content (EN), content_zh, tags[], source_url, platform (truth-social), media_url, published_at.

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Key dictionaries

Event category: CONFLICT · DIPLOMACY · POLITICS · ECONOMY · PROTESTS

Event sentiment: NEGATIVE · POSITIVE · NEUTRAL · MIXED

source_type (on posts): news_agency · state_media · osint · gov_military · journalist · think_tank · other

News region: intl · us · mideast · israel · persian · asia · russia · china · other

Post platform: twitter · telegram · truth-social (Trump only)

Trump tags: iran-war · energy · trade · china · executive-order · (auto-generated, non-exhaustive)

Entity relationships

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Briefing -> thread.signals[].id -> Event ID -> /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id}
Event -> source_details[].entity_slug -> /entities or /notable
Post -> source_type (mapped from author_category)
Thread -> polymarket_ref -> /polymarket
Trump -> tags[] -> cross-reference with /events or /posts

Key investigation paths:

1. Briefing -> Thread -> Event -> Sources -> Entity: "This thread claims X" -> check linked events -> how many sources? -> who are they? -> what camp?
2. Event -> Posts/News: use /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id} to find original content linked to a specific event
3. Thread -> Polymarket: thread has polymarket_ref -> check /polymarket -> does market probability align with AI assessment?
4. Weak evidence -> Cross-reference: claim has weak evidence -> check /news for mainstream coverage -> check /posts?source_type=osint -> if neither confirms, flag as unverified
5. Trump signal -> Iran impact: /trump?tags=iran-war -> check if events corroborate -> /events?category=DIPLOMACY -> assess real impact vs rhetoric

Usage scenarios

"What's the latest on Iran?" — Call /iran -> summarize situation assessment + top 2-3 threads. Keep it under 300 words. Lead with tension level and direction.

"What did Trump just say about Iran?" — Call /trump?tags=iran-war&limit=5 -> then cross-check /events?category=DIPLOMACY&hours=6 to see if rhetoric matches real developments.

"Is this source credible?" — Call /notable first (fast, curated). If not found, fall back to /entities?q=name. Report which camp they belong to and their category.

"What are the markets saying?" — Call /polymarket -> compare market-implied probability with briefing's thread assessment. Flag divergences explicitly.

"Deep dive on a specific event" — Get event ID from briefing or /events -> call /posts?event={id} and /news?event={id} -> triangulate source count and source types.

Output guidelines

• Lead with judgment, then evidence. Don't dump raw data — synthesize first, cite after.
• Mark confidence. Use "confirmed (N sources)" / "reported but unverified (single source)" / "rumor" based on source_count.
• Flag weak evidence. If a claim has only 1 source or comes from entertainment/social accounts, say so explicitly.
• Keep it concise. Default to 200-400 words unless the user asks for detail.
• Bilingual when helpful. Key terms and quotes can include both English and Chinese where the data provides translations.
• Never present AI analysis as fact. The briefing is AI-generated — frame it as "the briefing assesses..." not "the situation is...".

Key principle

The briefing is the map. The other endpoints are the territory. Don't dump all data on the user — use the briefing to identify what matters, investigate only what's relevant, and synthesize a judgment.

Notes

• Data from iranmonitor.org (800+ sources), Polymarket CLOB API, Truth Social
• AI analysis hourly, data feeds every 5 minutes
• All responses are Markdown with Chinese translations where available
• 48-hour rolling data window with deduplication by event/post ID
• Trump feed: auto-tagged by topic, bilingual (EN + ZH)