Polymarket Solana Onchain

Trade Polymarket SOL/crypto prediction markets using live Solana on-chain signals as leading indicators — before price moves. Reads TPS, priority fees, DEX volume, and epoch data from the free public Solana RPC and Jupiter API. No API keys required. Use when trading SOL, BTC, or ETH markets with on-chain data as the signal source.

DC@chokle

Install

openclaw skills install @chokle/polymarket-solana-onchain

Solana On-Chain Signal Trader 🔗

Trade Polymarket crypto prediction markets using Solana on-chain activity as a leading indicator — not price.

Every other signal on the marketplace uses price data. Price is lagging. On-chain activity moves first.

The insight: When Solana's network is surging — TPS spiking, priority fees rising, DEX volume flooding — it means real demand is happening right now. Price follows. This skill reads those signals from the free public Solana RPC and trades markets before the move shows up in price.

The Four Signals

Signal	Source	Why It Leads Price
TPS (transactions/sec)	Solana mainnet RPC	Network congestion = activity surge = price catalyst
Priority fees	`getRecentPrioritizationFees`	Users paying extra to jump queue = urgent demand
DEX volume	Jupiter `stats.jup.ag`	Real buy/sell pressure before CEX catches up
Epoch progress	`getEpochInfo`	Late epoch = validator reward sells; early epoch = stake settling

Composite signal = weighted blend → bullish, neutral, or bearish

No API keys. No paid subscriptions. All free public endpoints.

Requirements

SIMMER_API_KEY — your Simmer agent API key
simmer-sdk — pip install simmer-sdk
requests — pip install requests
Optional: SOLANA_RPC_URL to use a private RPC (default: mainnet-beta public)

Configuration

Variable	Default	Description
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	required	Your Simmer API key
`TRADING_VENUE`	`sim`	`sim`, `polymarket`, or `kalshi`
`SIMMER_ONCHAIN_MAX_POSITION`	`20.0`	Max USD per trade
`SIMMER_ONCHAIN_MAX_TRADES`	`4`	Max trades per run
`SIMMER_ONCHAIN_SIGNAL_MIN`	`0.15`	Min composite signal to trade (±0.15)
`SOLANA_RPC_URL`	mainnet-beta public	Override with Helius/Triton/QuickNode for lower latency

Usage

bash

# Install
pip install simmer-sdk

# Check current on-chain signals (no trades)
python strategy.py --signals

# Dry run (see what would trade)
python strategy.py

# Live trading
python strategy.py --live

# Tune config
python strategy.py --set max_position_usd=50
python strategy.py --set signal_threshold=0.10

Signal Levels

TPS Range	Status	Score
> 3,500	Surge	+1.0
> 2,500	Elevated	+0.6
> 1,500	Normal	0.0
< 1,500	Low	−0.5

Priority Fee (µL)	Status	Score
> 100,000	Surge	+1.0
> 10,000	Elevated	+0.6
> 1,000	Normal	0.0
< 1,000	Low	−0.5

Jupiter 24h Volume	Status	Score
> $2B	Surge	+1.0
> $1.2B	Elevated	+0.6
> $600M	Normal	0.0
< $600M	Low	−0.5

Composite = TPS×0.35 + fee×0.30 + volume×0.25 + epoch×0.10

Trade fires when |composite| > signal_threshold (default ±0.15).

Edge Over Other Skills

Skill	Signal Source	Lag
Most crypto skills	CoinGecko price	Lagging
Fast-loop	Binance klines	Seconds
This skill	Solana on-chain RPC	Leading

On-chain activity precedes price by minutes to hours. When validators are congested and Jupiter volume is surging, SOL is about to move — and Polymarket hasn't priced it yet.

Remix Ideas

Higher signal quality:

Replace public RPC with Helius (free tier) for faster, more reliable data
Add getTokenAccountsByOwner on top DEX wallets to detect whale swap activity
Track Jito bundle tips as an ultra-high-conviction congestion signal

More markets:

Import Kalshi ETH markets and use BTC on-chain as a beta signal
Track Ethereum gas fees via eth_gasPrice as a correlated signal for ETH markets
Layer in Pyth Network price feeds for sub-second price confirmation

Risk management:

Add a trailing stop: if TPS drops from surge to normal mid-session, exit positions
Size positions proportionally to signal strength (higher composite = larger bet)

How It Connects to Simmer

Uses the standard Simmer SDK:

GET /api/sdk/markets?q=solana&status=active — find target markets
GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — safeguard checks
POST /api/sdk/trade — execute with skill_slug for volume attribution

All trades tagged with skill_slug: polymarket-solana-onchain for performance tracking in your calibration report.