Hourly Momentum Trader

Momentum-based trading agent for hourly crypto candles. Uses RSI, MACD, OBV, EMA, and Bollinger Band confluence to score directional momentum from -10 to +10...

Directional momentum scoring for 1-hour crypto candles with Polymarket binary market integration.

Momentum Score System (-10 to +10)

Each signal contributes to the composite score:

Signal	Bullish (+)	Bearish (-)	Weight
RSI	<40 oversold	>70 overbought	±1
RSI divergence	Bull div	Bear div	±2
MACD cross	Bullish cross	Bearish cross	±1
MACD histogram	Rising	Falling	±1
EMA cross	EMA20>EMA50	EMA20<EMA50	±1
EMA200	Price above	Price below	±1
Bollinger	Near lower (oversold)	Near upper (overbought)	±1
OBV trend	Rising (accumulation)	Falling (distribution)	±1
OBV divergence	Bull div	Bear div	±2
Volume	High volume on move	Low volume	±1

Live Bet Integration (Polymarket Argus Strategy)

Combine momentum score with Polymarket market odds:

# Edge formula
our_prob = 0.50 + (momentum_score * 0.05)  # score 6 = 80% confidence
market_prob_up = polymarket_up_price  # e.g. 0.35 (35% UP consensus)
edge = our_prob - market_prob_up  # e.g. 0.80 - 0.35 = 45% edge!

# Bet when:
# - abs(momentum_score) >= 3
# - abs(edge) >= 0.10 (10%)
# - market is fresh (<30 min old)
# - USDC.e balance >= $5

Counter-Consensus Setups (L023)

Highest-EV Polymarket plays:

• Momentum score ≥+3 AND market DOWN >70% → BET UP (counter-consensus, 3-5x payout)
• Momentum score ≤-3 AND market UP >70% → BET DOWN (counter-consensus, 3-5x payout)

Example: SOL score=+4, Polymarket DOWN 80% → buy UP at 0.20 → if wins: 5x return

Signals Output Format

{
  "asset": "BTC",
  "score": 3,
  "rsi": 64.9,
  "rsi_status": "neutral",
  "macd_hist": 10.39,
  "macd_direction": "rising",
  "obv_trend": "rising",
  "bb_pct": 0.72,
  "ema_cross": "bullish",
  "bias": "BULLISH",
  "confidence_pct": 65,
  "polymarket_edge": {
    "btc_4pm_et": { "market_up": 0.515, "our_p": 0.65, "edge": 0.135, "direction": "UP" }
  }
}

Watchlist (Default)

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ATOM, ADA, SUI, LTC, NEAR, AVAX, BNB, LINK, DOT, TRX, DOGE