polymarket-simmer-fastloop-sync-pulse

Trade Polymarket BTC/ETH/SOL 5-minute fast markets using a zero-delay Triple-Trigger strategy. Combines Binance momentum, NOFX OI/Netflow (free public API), and L2 Wall detection to choose between Trend Following and Mean Reversion. Pre-Caches market IDs to bypass the Simmer API blackout at market open.

[!TIP] This is a template. The default signal is a Triple-Trigger strategy combining Binance momentum, NOFX institutional flow, and L2 Wall detection. Remix it with alternative signals like technical indicators (RSI/MACD), different CEX feeds, or custom LLM-based sentiment. The skill handles all the plumbing (market pre-caching, Simmer execution, budget safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

A professional-grade quantitative execution skill for Polymarket's 5-minute binary options.

🌟 Core Strategy: Triple-Trigger Sniper

This skill abandons naïve price-breakout logic. Every trade decision requires three independent confirmations:

1. Momentum & Pin Bar Filter (5m Candles)

• Measures the real momentum of the previous closed 5-minute candle on Binance.
• Pin Bar Rejection: If the counter-directional wick exceeds max_pin_bar_tail_pct (default 30%) of the full candle range, the signal is blocked as a likely exhaustion trap.
• min_momentum_pct defaults to 0.01% — acting as a near-zero-threshold pass-through that relies on the shape filter for quality control.

2. NOFX Institutional Flow (300s Window)

• Uses the NOFX API to check the past 300 seconds of Open Interest (OI) and institutional Netflow.
• Trend trade: Momentum + OI increasing (> -2%) + net institutional inflow.
• Reversion trade: Momentum + OI declining (< +2%) + net institutional outflow.

3. Binance L2 Verified Wall Detection

• Scans the Binance L2 order book for large price walls above min_wall_usd (default $1,000,000) up to wall_scan_depth levels deep.
• Anti-Spoofing: When a wall is detected, the script waits 1.5s and checks again. Only a wall that survives both checks is considered a real barrier, filtering out high-frequency spoofing.
• Usage: Trend trades avoid walls; Reversion trades require a wall to bounce off.

4. Pre-Caching Radar (V8.10 Ignition)

• On every run, the script fetches all upcoming market IDs from the Simmer API and saves them to a local fast_markets_cache.json.
• At market open, the Simmer API briefly hides the active market. The skill reads from its local cache to execute trades during this "API blackout", ensuring no opportunity is missed.
• The local cache ensures execution even on a cold start at the exact moment of market open.

⚙️ Account Setup

Set the following environment variables:

Variable	Required	Description
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Your Simmer SDK API key
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY	Optional	Your EVM wallet private key
AUTOMATON_MAX_BET	Optional	Override max position size (set by automation platforms)

• Without WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY: Runs in simulation mode (paper trading, no real money).
• With WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY: Runs in live mode (real USDC on Polymarket).

[!NOTE] Binance and NOFX are free, public APIs — no additional credentials or accounts are required. The skill reads Binance K-line/L2 data and NOFX OI/Netflow anonymously.

[!WARNING] Never share your WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY. The Simmer SDK signs transactions locally — your private key is never transmitted to any server.

🚀 Quick Start

Step 1: Pre-Warm the Cache (Recommended on First Run)

On first launch, run the script once to populate the local market ID cache. You do not need to be near a market window — the script will scan future markets, save them, and exit safely.

python fastloop_improved.py

You should see: [Ignition] Successfully cached X future market IDs.

Step 2: Run the Sniper

# Dry run — analyzes signals but does NOT place orders
python fastloop_improved.py

# Live mode — places real orders
python fastloop_improved.py --live

Note: With no WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY, --live uses Simmer's virtual $SIM balance (paper trading). Real USDC is only used when a private key is configured.

⚙️ All Settings

Setting	Default	Env Var	Description
min_momentum_pct	0.01	SIMMER_SPRINT_MOMENTUM	Min BTC % move in lookback window
max_position	10.0	SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	Max USD per trade
daily_budget	1000.0	SIMMER_DAILY_BUDGET	Max total spend per UTC day
max_pin_bar_tail_pct	0.3	SIMMER_PIN_BAR_MAX	Max wick ratio to filter Pin Bar noise
oi_neutral_zone	2.0	SIMMER_OI_NEUTRAL	OI % buffer — changes within ±2% are ignored
min_wall_usd	1000000	SIMMER_MIN_WALL_USD	Min USD depth to qualify as a wall
wall_scan_depth	50	SIMMER_WALL_SCAN_DEPTH	Number of L2 order book levels to scan
require_orderbook	false	SIMMER_ORDERBOOK	Require L2 wall confirmation
require_funding	false	SIMMER_FUNDING	Require NOFX institutional flow
fee_buffer	0.05	SIMMER_FEE_BUFFER	Extra edge required above fee breakeven

🆘 Troubleshooting

Symptom	Cause	Action
No high-conviction signal	Data signals conflict or no wall found	Normal. The sniper only fires on high-probability setups.
No tradeable markets found	No Polymarket market is scheduled in this window	Normal. Cache is being updated. Wait for the next market window.
Failed to fetch signal data	Network or API rate limit	Check Binance / NOFX connectivity.
401 Unauthorized	Invalid API key	Verify SIMMER_API_KEY is set correctly.

🎨 Remixing the Signal

This skill is designed as a remixable template. We separate the Structural Plumbing (Discovery, Execution, Budget) from the Signal Alpha.

Implementation Architecture:

• The Plumbing (Structural): Functions like discover_fast_market_markets, get_client, and the daily budget logic are core infrastructure.
• The Alpha (Replaceable): The decision brain lives in run_fast_market_strategy (~lines 570-580).

How to Remix:

1. Find the Brain: Modify is_trend or is_reversion in fastloop_improved.py.
2. Swap Data Sources: Replace fetch_nofx_oi or fetch_binance_orderbook with your own API calls (e.g., Glassnode, Santiment, or a custom model).
3. Customize Sizing: Edit calculate_position_size to implement Kelly Criterion or fixed-lot strategies.

The default "Triple-Trigger" is just one example of a high-conviction setup — use this template to wire your own strategy into Polymarket's pipes.

🤖 AI Operator Policy

When running this script as an automated agent, interpret outputs as follows:

✅ Success — Ignition: Log contains [Ignition] Successfully cached X future market IDs. Cache is populated. This is a successful run even if no trade fires.

⏳ Normal — Waiting: Log shows No tradeable markets found. This means no market is currently scheduled. The script will find one at the next window.

❌ True Failure: 401 Unauthorized, SyntaxError, AttributeError, or 10+ consecutive [API Delay] messages with no [Ignition] line.

The script's purpose is dual: snipe when conditions are right, and keep the local ID cache fresh at all other times.