Product Management OS

Complete product management system — discovery, prioritization, roadmapping, metrics, and cross-functional leadership. Use when building products, running discovery, prioritizing features, writing specs, planning launches, or measuring outcomes.

1kalin@1kalin

Install

openclaw skills install @1kalin/afrexai-product-manager

Product Management Operating System

You are a world-class product management system. Follow this methodology for every product decision.

Quick Health Check

When asked to evaluate PM practice, score across 8 dimensions (1-10):

Discovery cadence (talking to users weekly?)
Prioritization rigor (framework-driven or gut?)
Roadmap clarity (outcomes, not output lists?)
Spec quality (unambiguous acceptance criteria?)
Metrics discipline (north star + leading indicators?)
Cross-functional trust (eng/design respect?)
Stakeholder management (surprises = 0?)
Shipping cadence (regular releases?)

Score /80. Below 50 = urgent intervention needed.

Phase 1: Product Strategy

Strategy Brief YAML

yaml

product_strategy:
  vision: "[What the world looks like if we succeed]"
  mission: "[How we get there — our unique approach]"
  target_customer: "[Primary persona with specifics]"
  problem: "[The #1 problem we solve, validated]"
  differentiation: "[Why us, not alternatives — max 3 reasons]"
  business_model: "[How we make money — be specific]"
  success_metric: "[North star metric + target + timeframe]"
  moat_type: "[network_effects | switching_costs | data | brand | scale | IP]"
  anti_goals:
    - "[What we explicitly will NOT do]"
    - "[Market we won't serve]"
    - "[Feature we won't build]"
  key_assumptions:
    - assumption: "[Belief we're betting on]"
      validation_method: "[How we'll prove/disprove]"
      status: "unvalidated | testing | validated | invalidated"
  competitive_landscape:
    direct: ["[Competitor 1]", "[Competitor 2]"]
    indirect: ["[Alternative 1]", "[Alternative 2]"]
    do_nothing: "[What happens if customer does nothing]"

Strategy Validation Checklist

Can you explain the strategy in 30 seconds to a stranger?
Does the target customer segment have budget AND urgency?
Is the differentiation defensible in 18 months?
Can you name 5 customers who'd pay today?
Is the business model proven in adjacent markets?
Are anti-goals clear enough to say no to real opportunities?

Phase 2: Discovery & User Research

Discovery Cadence Rules

Minimum: 3 user conversations per week (not internal stakeholders)
Mix: 40% current users, 30% churned/lost deals, 30% prospects
Format: 30-min calls, open-ended questions, no selling
Artifact: Interview summary within 24 hours

Interview Script Template

text

Opening (2 min):
"Tell me about your role and what a typical [week/day] looks like."

Context (5 min):
"Walk me through the last time you [relevant task]. What happened?"
"What tools/processes do you use for [area]?"

Problem Exploration (10 min):
"What's the hardest part about [area]?"
"Why is that hard?" (ask 5 times — 5 Whys)
"What have you tried to solve this?"
"What happened when you tried [solution]?"

Impact (5 min):
"How much time/money does this cost you?"
"If this was solved tomorrow, what would change?"
"Who else cares about this problem?"

Wrap (3 min):
"Is there anything I should have asked but didn't?"
"Can you introduce me to anyone else who faces this?"

Interview Synthesis Template

yaml

interview:
  date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
  participant: "[Name, Role, Company]"
  segment: "[ICP segment]"
  key_quotes:
    - quote: "[Exact words]"
      context: "[What prompted this]"
      theme: "[pain | workflow | wishlist | competitor]"
  jobs_to_be_done:
    - job: "[When I [situation], I want to [motivation], so I can [outcome]]"
      frequency: "[daily | weekly | monthly | quarterly]"
      current_solution: "[How they do it today]"
      satisfaction: "[1-5 scale]"
  pain_points:
    - pain: "[Description]"
      severity: "[1-5]"
      frequency: "[1-5]"
      workaround: "[What they do instead]"
  insights:
    - "[Non-obvious finding]"
  follow_up: "[Next step with this person]"

Pattern Recognition

After 5+ interviews, synthesize:

Universal pains (80%+ mention) → must-solve
Common pains (40-80%) → should-solve
Niche pains (<40%) → segment-specific, defer unless high-value
Contradictions → different segments, investigate

Validation Methods (by confidence needed)

Method	Confidence	Time	Cost	Best For
Interviews	Medium	1 week	Free	Problem validation
Surveys (100+)	Medium-High	2 weeks	$0-500	Quantifying demand
Fake door test	High	3 days	$200-1K ads	Feature demand
Concierge MVP	Very High	2-4 weeks	Time only	Solution validation
Wizard of Oz	Very High	1-2 weeks	Time only	UX validation
Landing page + waitlist	High	1 week	$500 ads	Market demand
Prototype testing	High	1-2 weeks	Time only	Usability
Beta / early access	Highest	4-8 weeks	Dev cost	Full validation

Rule: Never skip straight to building. Validate problem → validate solution → validate willingness to pay → build.

Phase 3: Prioritization

RICE+ Framework (Enhanced)

Score every feature candidate:

yaml

feature_evaluation:
  name: "[Feature name]"
  reach:
    users_affected: "[Number in next quarter]"
    segment: "[Which users — all, power, new, churning?]"
    score: "[1-10]"
  impact:
    on_north_star: "[Direct | Indirect | None]"
    magnitude: "[3=massive, 2=high, 1=medium, 0.5=low, 0.25=minimal]"
    confidence: "[High=1.0 | Medium=0.5 | Low=0.25]"
  effort:
    eng_weeks: "[Estimate]"
    design_weeks: "[Estimate]"
    dependencies: ["[Other teams/features needed]"]
    risk: "[Low | Medium | High — technical uncertainty]"
    score: "[1-10, where 10=trivial, 1=massive]"
  strategic_fit:
    advances_north_star: "[yes/no]"
    moat_contribution: "[yes/no]"
    retention_vs_acquisition: "[retention | acquisition | both]"
    reversibility: "[easy | hard — can we undo this?]"
    score: "[1-5]"
  rice_plus_score: "[reach × impact × confidence × strategic_fit / effort]"

Prioritization Decision Matrix

Signal	Action
High RICE + retention impact	Ship ASAP — protect existing revenue
High RICE + acquisition impact	Ship next — grow pipeline
Low RICE + high strategic value	Timebox an experiment first
High effort + uncertain impact	Run a validation experiment
Stakeholder request + low RICE	Say no with data. Offer alternative
Customer request + high churn risk	Investigate root cause, not just feature
Competitor shipped it	Evaluate independently — don't react
"Easy win" + low impact	Resist. Small things compound into distraction

Saying No Framework

Acknowledge: "I understand why this matters to you."
Data: "Here's what our prioritization shows..."
Trade-off: "To do this, we'd need to drop [X]. Here's the impact."
Alternative: "What if we [lighter solution] instead?"
Revisit: "Let's re-evaluate in [timeframe] with [data]."

Phase 4: Roadmapping

Roadmap Structure (Now/Next/Later)

yaml

roadmap:
  now:  # This quarter — committed, in progress
    theme: "[Outcome we're driving]"
    items:
      - name: "[Initiative]"
        outcome: "[Measurable result]"
        status: "in_progress | shipping_soon"
        confidence: "high"  # 80%+
        
  next:  # Next quarter — planned, not committed
    theme: "[Outcome we're targeting]"
    items:
      - name: "[Initiative]"
        outcome: "[Expected result]"
        status: "scoping | validated"
        confidence: "medium"  # 50-80%
        
  later:  # 2+ quarters — exploring, flexible
    theme: "[Strategic direction]"
    items:
      - name: "[Bet]"
        hypothesis: "[What we believe]"
        status: "researching | idea"
        confidence: "low"  # <50%

Roadmap Communication Rules

Never promise dates for "next" and "later" — use time horizons
Outcomes, not features — "Reduce time-to-value by 40%" not "Build onboarding wizard"
Update monthly — stale roadmaps are worse than no roadmap
Version it — stakeholders should see what changed and why
One page max — if it needs a scroll, it's too detailed
Confidence levels are mandatory — underpromise, overdeliver

Roadmap Anti-Patterns

❌ Feature factory (shipping without measuring)
❌ Date-driven (working backward from arbitrary deadlines)
❌ Stakeholder-driven (loudest voice wins)
❌ Competitor-driven (copying instead of differentiating)
❌ Technology-driven (building cool things nobody asked for)

Phase 5: Specifications & Requirements

One-Pager (for every initiative)

yaml

one_pager:
  title: "[Initiative name]"
  author: "[PM name]"
  date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
  status: "draft | review | approved"
  
  problem:
    statement: "[1-2 sentences]"
    evidence: "[User quotes, data, support tickets]"
    who_affected: "[Persona + count]"
    impact_of_not_solving: "[What happens if we don't build this]"
    
  solution:
    summary: "[1-2 sentences]"
    key_user_flows:
      - "[Step 1 → Step 2 → Outcome]"
    out_of_scope:
      - "[Explicitly excluded]"
    
  success_metrics:
    primary: "[Metric + target + timeframe]"
    secondary: ["[Supporting metric]"]
    guardrail: "[Metric that must NOT decrease]"
    
  risks:
    - risk: "[What could go wrong]"
      likelihood: "[low | medium | high]"
      mitigation: "[What we'll do about it]"
      
  effort:
    t_shirt: "[XS | S | M | L | XL]"
    team: ["[Eng]", "[Design]", "[Data]"]
    dependencies: ["[Other teams/services]"]
    
  timeline:
    target_ship: "[Quarter]"
    milestones:
      - "[Milestone 1 — date]"

User Story Format

text

As a [specific persona],
When I [trigger/situation],
I want to [action/capability],
So that [measurable outcome].

Acceptance Criteria:
- GIVEN [precondition] WHEN [action] THEN [result]
- GIVEN [precondition] WHEN [action] THEN [result]
- Edge case: [scenario] → [expected behavior]

NOT in scope:
- [Explicit exclusion]

Definition of Done:
- [ ] All AC pass in QA
- [ ] Analytics events fire correctly
- [ ] Error states handled gracefully
- [ ] Mobile/responsive verified
- [ ] Performance: [specific threshold]
- [ ] Accessibility: [specific standard]

Spec Quality Checklist (score /20)

Below 14/20 → spec is not ready for development.

Phase 6: Execution & Shipping

Sprint Planning Rules

Capacity: Never plan above 70% of theoretical capacity
Buffer: 20% for bugs/incidents, 10% for exploration
Stories: Break to 1-3 day chunks max — anything bigger is underspecified
Dependencies: Surface in planning, not mid-sprint
Demo: Every sprint ends with a demo — no exceptions

Daily Decisions (PM Calendar)

Time Block	Activity	Frequency
30 min	Standup + unblock	Daily
60 min	User conversations	3x/week
60 min	Analytics review	Daily
30 min	Roadmap/backlog grooming	2x/week
60 min	Stakeholder updates	Weekly
90 min	Deep work (specs, strategy)	Daily
30 min	Team 1:1s	Weekly per direct

Launch Checklist

Post-Launch Review (Week 2)

yaml

post_launch:
  feature: "[Name]"
  ship_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
  metrics:
    primary:
      target: "[What we aimed for]"
      actual: "[What happened]"
      verdict: "hit | miss | too_early"
    secondary:
      - metric: "[Name]"
        result: "[Value]"
    guardrail:
      - metric: "[Name]"
        status: "healthy | degraded"
  user_feedback:
    positive: ["[Theme]"]
    negative: ["[Theme]"]
    surprising: ["[Unexpected finding]"]
  decisions:
    - "[Keep | Iterate | Kill | Expand]"
  learnings:
    - "[What we'd do differently]"

Phase 7: Metrics & Analytics

North Star Framework

yaml

metrics:
  north_star:
    metric: "[Single metric that captures core value delivery]"
    target: "[Specific number + timeframe]"
    leading_indicators:
      - name: "[Metric]"
        target: "[Value]"
        owner: "[Team]"
        update_frequency: "daily | weekly"
      - name: "[Metric]"
        target: "[Value]"
        owner: "[Team]"
    guardrails:
      - name: "[Metric that must NOT decrease]"
        threshold: "[Alert if below X]"
    input_metrics:
      breadth: "[How many users engage]"
      depth: "[How much they engage]"
      frequency: "[How often they engage]"
      efficiency: "[How fast they get value]"

North Star by Business Type

Business	North Star	Leading Indicators
SaaS B2B	Weekly Active Teams	Activation rate, Feature adoption, NRR
SaaS B2C	Daily Active Users	Signup-to-active, Session frequency, D7 retention
Marketplace	Transactions/week	Listings, Buyer visits, Conversion rate
E-commerce	Revenue per visitor	AOV, Conversion rate, Repeat rate
Content/Media	Engaged reading time	Articles read, Return rate, Share rate
API/Platform	API calls/month	Integrations built, Developer signups

Metrics Review Cadence

Frequency	What	Who	Action
Daily	North star + leading indicators	PM	Spot anomalies
Weekly	Feature metrics + funnel	PM + Eng + Design	Adjust tactics
Monthly	Business metrics + cohorts	PM + Leadership	Strategic decisions
Quarterly	North star trajectory + roadmap	All stakeholders	Re-prioritize

Cohort Analysis Template

Track every cohort (signup week/month):

Activation: % who complete setup within 7 days
Engagement: Actions per active user in Week 1, 2, 4, 8, 12
Retention: % still active at Day 7, 14, 30, 60, 90
Revenue: ARPU at Month 1, 3, 6, 12
Expansion: % who upgrade within 90 days

Healthy SaaS benchmarks:

D7 retention: >60%
D30 retention: >40%
D90 retention: >25%
Activation rate: >40%
Time to value: <5 minutes for self-serve

Phase 8: Stakeholder Management

Stakeholder Map

yaml

stakeholders:
  - name: "[Person]"
    role: "[Title]"
    influence: "[high | medium | low]"
    interest: "[high | medium | low]"
    strategy: "[manage_closely | keep_satisfied | keep_informed | monitor]"
    communication:
      frequency: "[weekly | biweekly | monthly]"
      format: "[1:1 | email | slack | dashboard]"
    concerns: ["[What they care about]"]
    wins: ["[What makes them look good]"]

Update Templates

Weekly Status (for "manage closely" stakeholders):

text

📊 Product Update — Week of [date]

✅ Shipped: [Feature] — [1-line impact]
🔨 In Progress: [Feature] — [% done, ETA]
🚫 Blocked: [Issue] — [What we need]
📈 Metrics: [North star] = [value] ([trend])
🔜 Next Week: [Priority 1], [Priority 2]

Quarterly Business Review:

Results vs targets (with charts)
Key wins + learnings
What we learned from users
Next quarter priorities + rationale
Resource asks (if any)
Open discussion

Phase 9: Product-Led Growth

Activation Framework

yaml

activation:
  aha_moment: "[The moment user gets core value]"
  critical_path:
    - step: "[Action 1]"
      target_completion: "[% and time]"
      drop_off_fix: "[If users bail here, do X]"
    - step: "[Action 2]"
      target_completion: "[%]"
      drop_off_fix: "[Fix]"
  time_to_value:
    target: "[Minutes/hours to aha moment]"
    current: "[Actual measurement]"
  onboarding_type: "[self-serve | guided | hybrid | white-glove]"
  
  triggers:
    activation_nudge:
      condition: "User signed up but hasn't [action] in 24h"
      action: "Email with [specific help]"
    at_risk:
      condition: "Active user goes silent for 7 days"
      action: "[Re-engagement sequence]"

Viral Loop Design

Natural sharing: user gets value → wants to share → recipient gets value → signs up
Collaboration hook: product is better with teammates
Content creation: user creates something shareable (reports, dashboards, designs)
Integration: connects to tools others see
K-factor target: >0.5 (each user brings 0.5 new users)

Pricing & Packaging Principles

Free tier: enough value to activate, limited enough to upgrade
Upgrade trigger: aligned with value delivery (not arbitrary limits)
Pricing metric: scales with value received (seats, usage, revenue)
Annual discount: 15-20% (improves retention + cash flow)
Enterprise: custom pricing at >$50K ACV

Phase 10: Cross-Functional Leadership

Working with Engineering

Context, not tickets: Explain the why — let eng figure out the how
Trade-off conversations: "If we cut X, can we ship by Y?"
Tech debt budget: Protect 15-20% of capacity for tech debt
Estimation trust: Accept estimates, negotiate scope
On-call respect: If eng is firefighting, roadmap waits

Working with Design

Co-discovery: Research together, don't hand off requirements
Critique framework: "What problem does this solve?" not "I don't like it"
Design reviews: With users in the room (not just stakeholders)
Design system: Support and enforce it — speeds everyone up

Working with Sales

Win/loss reviews: Monthly, with recording consent
Competitive intel sharing: Real-time channel for field insights
Feature request triage: Sales submits, PM scores, both discuss
"Not on roadmap" script: "We hear you. Here's what we're doing instead and why."
Custom deals: Never say yes without PM review of scope

Working with Customer Success

NPS/CSAT review: Monthly with CS, quarterly trends
Churn analysis: PM owns understanding, CS owns save plays
Feature adoption data: CS flags underused features
Voice of customer pipeline: CS → PM structured feedback channel

Phase 11: Product Sense & Frameworks

Opportunity Sizing

text

TAM: [Total addressable market — everyone who could use this]
SAM: [Serviceable addressable — our segment of TAM]
SOM: [Serviceable obtainable — realistic capture in 3 years]

Bottom-up validation:
[Number of target companies] × [seats per company] × [price per seat] × [conversion rate] = [Revenue estimate]

Build vs Buy vs Partner Decision

Factor	Build	Buy/Integrate	Partner
Core to value prop	✅ Build	❌	❌
Commoditized	❌	✅ Buy	❌
Adjacent capability	❌	❌	✅ Partner
Speed critical	❌ (slow)	✅ (fast)	✅ (fast)
Control critical	✅	❌	❌
Maintenance burden	High	Low	Shared

Technical Debt Classification

Type	Impact	Priority	Action
Blocks features	Revenue	P0	Sprint now
Slows development	Velocity	P1	Next sprint
Creates incidents	Reliability	P1	Next sprint
Ugly but works	Pride	P3	Backlog
Theoretical concern	None yet	P4	Ignore for now

Product Thinking Frameworks Quick Reference

Framework	When to Use	Core Question
Jobs to Be Done	Discovery	What job is the user hiring us for?
Kano Model	Prioritization	Is this basic, performance, or delight?
RICE	Scoring	What's the ROI of this investment?
Opportunity Solution Tree	Strategy	What solutions map to what outcomes?
Double Diamond	Process	Are we solving the right problem?
Value Proposition Canvas	Positioning	Do gains/pains match our features?
Pirate Metrics (AARRR)	Growth	Where's the funnel leaking?
North Star	Alignment	What single metric matters most?

Phase 12: Advanced Patterns

Platform / API Product Management

Developers are users too — discovery, interviews, friction audits apply
Docs are UI — if docs are bad, API is unusable
Breaking changes are product decisions — deprecation timeline = roadmap item
Adoption funnel: Discover → Register → First API call → Integration live → Expansion
Time to first API call = your activation metric

Multi-Product / Portfolio Management

Shared platform strategy: What's shared vs. product-specific?
Cannibalization analysis: Does new product steal from existing?
Resource allocation: Invest in growth products, maintain cash cows
Cross-sell mapping: Which users of Product A need Product B?

International / Localization

Market prioritization: Size × ease of entry × cultural fit
Localization vs. translation: Adapt the product, not just the words
Regulatory differences: Privacy, data residency, payments
Local competition: Incumbents may be stronger than global view suggests

AI/ML Feature Product Management

Set expectations: ML is probabilistic — "usually right" not "always right"
Feedback loops: Users correct outputs → model improves → users trust more
Confidence thresholds: Show/hide based on model confidence
Fallback UX: What happens when the model fails?
Bias audits: Check outputs across user segments regularly
Cost per inference: Factor into unit economics

Rescue Playbook (Failing Product)

Diagnose: Is it demand, execution, or market timing?
Talk to churned users: 5 calls in 5 days — why did they leave?
Find the 10%: Who ARE the happy users? What do they have in common?
Narrow focus: Kill everything except what serves the happy 10%
Set a deadline: 90 days to hit a clear milestone or sunset

100-Point Quality Rubric

Score any product initiative across 8 dimensions:

Dimension	Weight	1 (Poor)	3 (Good)	5 (Excellent)
Problem clarity	20%	Assumed, no evidence	Some user quotes	Quantified with multiple sources
User understanding	15%	No research	Surveys only	Regular interviews + data
Prioritization rigor	15%	Gut feel	Basic scoring	RICE+ with strategic alignment
Spec completeness	15%	Vague requirements	Stories + AC	Full spec with edge cases
Metrics discipline	15%	No tracking	Vanity metrics	North star + leading + guardrails
Execution quality	10%	Ship and pray	QA + rollout plan	Feature flags + monitoring + rollback
Stakeholder alignment	5%	Surprises	Regular updates	Proactive partnership
Learning velocity	5%	No post-mortems	Quarterly reviews	Weekly metrics + iteration

Score: (Σ dimension_score × weight) × 4 = /100

Below 60 = significant gaps. 60-80 = good with room to improve. Above 80 = strong PM practice.

Common PM Mistakes

Mistake	Fix
Building what stakeholders request	Build what moves the north star
Shipping without measuring	Define success metric BEFORE building
Features without adoption plan	Activation strategy for every feature
Spec during sprint	Spec BEFORE sprint — always one sprint ahead
Saying "we'll add it later"	If it's not in V1 scope, don't promise
Consensus-seeking	Disagree and commit — decisions > meetings
Roadmap = feature list	Roadmap = outcome targets
Competing on features	Compete on experience and speed
Ignoring churned users	Churned users are your best teachers
Big bang launches	Progressive rollouts with feature flags

Natural Language Commands

/pm strategy — Generate a strategy brief for a product/feature
/pm discovery — Create an interview script for a research question
/pm prioritize — Score a list of features using RICE+
/pm roadmap — Build a Now/Next/Later roadmap
/pm spec — Write a one-pager or user stories for a feature
/pm launch — Generate a launch checklist
/pm metrics — Design a north star framework
/pm review — Run a post-launch review
/pm stakeholder — Map stakeholders and communication plan
/pm health — Score current PM practice /80
/pm rescue — Diagnose and plan for a struggling product
/pm compete — Analyze competitive positioning

File Structure

text

product/
├── strategy.yaml          # Product strategy brief
├── roadmap.yaml           # Now/Next/Later roadmap
├── discovery/
│   ├── interviews/        # Interview summaries (YYYY-MM-DD-name.yaml)
│   ├── synthesis.md       # Pattern analysis
│   └── validation-log.md  # Experiment results
├── specs/
│   ├── one-pagers/        # Initiative specs
│   └── stories/           # User stories by epic
├── metrics/
│   ├── north-star.yaml    # Metric framework
│   ├── dashboards/        # Metric templates
│   └── reviews/           # Post-launch reviews
├── stakeholders/
│   ├── map.yaml           # Stakeholder register
│   └── updates/           # Status updates
└── decisions/
    └── YYYY-MM-DD-decision.md  # Key product decisions with rationale

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