WorldCup 2026 Predictor

World Cup match forecasting from bookmaker odds, line movement, promotion/relegation of favorites, 90-minute moneyline versus qualification markets, Asian handicap, totals, BTTS, injuries, starting XI, and fresh news. Use when the user asks in Chinese or English to analyze World Cup matches, today's games, pre-match betting markets,盘口,赔率,庄家,临场盘,大小球,让球,胜平负,比分预测,晋级预测,开赛前10分钟播报, or match prediction alerts.

World Cup Odds Forecaster

Use this skill to produce a disciplined, probability-based World Cup forecast from market structure and fresh news. Treat betting markets as information, not destiny: explain uncertainty, avoid guarantees, and never claim a result is certain.

Fast Path

1. Determine the match scope: today, a named match, or all upcoming World Cup matches.
2. Browse for current kickoff time, venue, format, lineups/injuries/suspensions, and at least two odds sources with timestamps when possible.
3. Separate markets: 90-minute moneyline, qualification/to-lift, Asian handicap/spread, totals, BTTS, correct score, and major line movement.
4. Apply the rules in references/market-rules.md.
5. Run scripts/forecast.py when the user supplies odds, or when you have gathered enough structured odds to pass as JSON.
6. If the user asks for pre-kickoff播报/提醒, schedule a reminder or automation for kickoff minus 10 minutes when automation tools are available; otherwise provide an exact local reminder time and the analysis prompt to rerun.

Required Output Shape

For each match, answer in Chinese by default when the user writes Chinese:

• 结论: 90 分钟胜平负, 晋级/出线, 大小球, BTTS, 1-3 个比分.
• 盘口读法: explain ML movement, qualification-market conflict, handicap confirmation/failure, totals, BTTS, and whether the favorite is firm or drifting.
• 新闻确认: distinguish hard information from public/emotional news. Mention starting XI, injuries, rest, travel, weather, tactical matchup, and source timing.
• 庄家/资本视角: say what the market appears to be protecting against: favorite win, small favorite win, draw/extra time, upset, over, under, or both teams to score.
• 风险: list what would flip the forecast before kickoff.
• 下注窗口提醒: if relevant, state "开赛前 10 分钟重新看临场盘" and avoid presenting any pick as guaranteed profit.

Do not say "准确预测" as a promise. Say "当前最优概率判断" or "按临场盘口的最优推演".

10-Minute Pre-Kickoff Workflow

When asked to播报 before kickoff:

1. Convert kickoff to the user's timezone and compute kickoff minus 10 minutes.

2. If an automation/reminder tool is available, create a one-time automation at that time with this prompt:

   Use $world-cup-odds-forecaster to refresh odds, lineup/news, and line movement for <match>; produce the final 10-minute pre-kickoff forecast.

3. If automation tools are unavailable, return the exact reminder time and tell Codex to rerun the same skill at that time.

4. In the reminder run, re-fetch fresh odds and lineups. Do not reuse stale earlier odds except as the opening/previous line for movement comparison.

Data Discipline

• Prefer official tournament pages for schedule and lineups, then major sportsbooks/odds aggregators for prices, then reliable news wires and team reporters for news.
• Always include source links for current schedule, odds, and news.
• If odds are unavailable or stale, state the gap and produce only a lower-confidence tactical/news forecast.
• Track timestamps. "临场" should mean the most recent price close to kickoff, ideally within 60 minutes and especially the final 10-15 minutes.
• Convert American, decimal, and fractional odds into implied probability before comparing markets.
• Remove or mention bookmaker margin when enough prices exist; otherwise treat implied probabilities as rough.

Using Bundled Resources

• Read references/market-rules.md for the core market heuristics before making a forecast.
• Use scripts/forecast.py --input <json> to turn gathered market data into a repeatable probability/risk scaffold.
• Use scripts/kickoff_alerts.py to compute kickoff-minus-10 reminder times from a match list.

Safety Boundary

This skill can analyze markets and produce probabilistic forecasts. It must not guarantee wins, present betting as income, encourage chasing losses, or place bets for the user. Keep the final wording analytical and risk-aware.