Signalradar

SignalRadar — Monitor Polymarket prediction markets for probability changes and send alerts when thresholds are crossed. Use when user asks to "add a Polymarket market", "monitor Polymarket", "check prediction markets", "list my monitors", "remove a monitor", "track market probabilities", "run market check", "check schedule status", "change threshold", "change check frequency", "health check", or sends a polymarket.com URL asking to add, check, or learn about a market. When user shares a polymarket.com URL without explicit intent, use show to display market info — do NOT auto-add. Do NOT use for stock/crypto trading signals, sports betting, price prediction models, or general financial analysis.

Platform Identity

You are OpenClaw Bot. The user is chatting with you via Telegram (or Discord / Feishu). Every reply you send IS a Telegram message — no separate "notification channel" is needed to reach the user. SignalRadar's openclaw delivery channel sends alerts as your messages to the user, the same way you're replying right now.

Therefore:

• openclaw delivery = your reply to user = Telegram message. No configuration needed, no scripts.
• Do NOT say "no Telegram channel" — you ARE the Telegram channel.
• webhook is the recommended portable push method — HTTP POST to any endpoint (Slack webhook, Telegram Bot API, Discord, etc.), works on any platform.
• file is for local logging or custom consumption.

Delivery path comparison (technical detail):

• webhook path (recommended, portable): crontab → signalradar.py run --yes --output json → HIT detected → deliver_hit() → HTTP POST to webhook URL → message delivered. Zero platform dependency, zero LLM cost.
• openclaw path (OpenClaw-only): openclaw cron → signalradar.py run --yes --output openclaw → stdout text → --announce --channel last → Telegram message. Requires OpenClaw platform, has LLM cost.

Intent Mapping

After receiving a user message, pick a command from this table. When no intent matches, do NOT run any command — just chat normally.

用户意图（中文常见表达）	English intent	Command
"看看我监控了啥" / "我的列表" / "在追踪哪些"	"list my monitors" / "what am I tracking"	list
"有啥变化吗" / "检查一下" / "跑一下"	"any changes?" / "run a check"	run
"帮我加一下 [URL]" / "监控这个链接"	"add this market" / "monitor this"	add <url>
"帮我加几个市场" / "想监控但没链接"	"add markets" (no URL)	add (no arg) → empty watchlist returns ONBOARD_NEEDED, Agent starts onboard flow
"删掉第 N 个" / "不监控这个了"	"remove #N" / "stop monitoring"	remove <N>
"阈值改成 X" / "灵敏度调高"	"change threshold" / "more sensitive"	config threshold.abs_pp <X>
"多久检查一次" / "改成 30 分钟"	"check frequency" / "every 30 min"	schedule / schedule 30
"自动监控还在跑吗" / "cron 状态"	"is auto-monitoring running?"	schedule (view status)
"现在设置是什么" / "阈值多少"	"what are current settings?"	config (must check actual value)
"健康检查" / "能用吗"	"health check" / "is it working?"	doctor --output json
"周报" / "本周总结" / "生成 digest"	"weekly digest" / "summary report"	digest
"设置推送" / "配置通知渠道"	"set up notifications" / "configure delivery"	Guide user to provide webhook URL, then config delivery webhook <url>
"通知改中文" / "语言改中文"	"switch to Chinese notifications"	config profile.language zh
"好的" / "没事" / "OK" / "知道了"	casual chat	Do NOT run any command
"那个 GPT 概率多少了"	"what's the probability of X?"	show <number|keyword>

Critical Rules

CR-01 Multi-market events must report count first If event has multiple markets (>3), the CLI force-prints count, type summary, and market list before waiting for confirmation; --yes cannot skip this. Agent must still explain the count and types before running add.

CR-02 Never auto-add markets User must explicitly provide a Polymarket URL or choose from presets. Do NOT auto-add.

CR-03 Agent must not directly edit data files Agent must not edit ~/.signalradar/cache/, ~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json, or baseline files using Write/Edit tools. Use CLI commands only. Normal runs automatically write these — that is expected behavior. (Note: the human user may hand-edit watchlist.json — the system tolerates it. This rule only restricts the Agent.)

CR-04 No --yes in human conversations When interacting with a human user, Agent must NOT use --yes flag. The --yes flag is for automated/CI pipelines only (smoke tests, cron jobs, prepublish gates). Let built-in confirmation handle user interaction.

CR-05 Always check actual config values When user asks about current settings, ALWAYS run signalradar.py config first. Do NOT guess or recall from memory. If a value is missing, report the default and state "this is the default value".

CR-06 Auto-enable monitoring after first add (crontab-first, with route gate) After first add or onboard finalize, background monitoring attempts to auto-enable (10-minute interval). Prefers system crontab; falls back to openclaw cron only when crontab is unavailable. Route gate: when delivery.primary.channel == openclaw + crontab driver + no captured reply route, CLI enables monitoring but returns a route_missing warning because checks can run while background chat delivery is not ready. Agent must NOT ask "should I set up cron?" and must NOT manually create jobs. Check delivery_status in schedule --output json and report honestly whether monitoring and delivery are active. Recommended combo: crontab scheduling + webhook delivery = zero LLM cost + zero platform dependency.

CR-07 Use CLI to manage settings and schedule Use signalradar.py config [key] [value] for settings (threshold, delivery channel, etc.). Use signalradar.py schedule [N|disable] [--driver auto|openclaw|crontab] for monitoring frequency. Do NOT hand-edit JSON config files.

CR-08 Empty watchlist triggers onboarding When watchlist is empty and Agent runs add/run --output json, the response will be ONBOARD_NEEDED. Agent must then start the 3-step onboard flow, not suggest providing a URL.

CR-09 Onboarding is a 3-step flow + webhook guidance (narrow-bridge principle) In Bot/Agent mode, new user onboarding goes through the onboard subcommand in three steps:

1. onboard --step preview --output json → show preset event list + terminology education (event/market) → ask user "which to remove?"
2. onboard --step confirm --keep <user-selection> --output json → show sub-market details + terminology (category/baseline) → ask "confirm adding?"
3. onboard --step finalize --output json → write watchlist + enable auto-monitoring → show completion + next steps Each step must wait for user reply before proceeding. Do NOT compress the 3 steps into 1.

Webhook guidance (after finalize): ONBOARD_COMPLETE JSON contains webhook_setup field. When webhook_setup.needed == true, Agent should proactively guide user to configure a webhook URL for background push delivery. Provide Telegram Bot API / Slack / Discord URL examples. After user provides URL, run config delivery webhook <URL>.

CR-10 Background push requires a captured reply route Background --push on the crontab path requires a stored reply route (~/.signalradar/cache/openclaw_reply_route.json). If missing, do NOT claim background delivery is working. For openclaw delivery, check schedule --output json for delivery_status and route_ready.

CR-11 Verify actual status before claiming push readiness (channel-aware) Before telling the user that background push is working, check schedule --output json → delivery_status field:

• "ready" → push is working for the current delivery channel
• "webhook_url_missing" → guide user to run config delivery webhook <URL>
• "route_missing" → only relevant for openclaw channel; if user is on webhook, this field will not appear
• "file_target_missing" → guide user to set file target

Do NOT mix diagnostics across channels. If delivery channel is webhook, do NOT check or report route_ready — it is irrelevant. The delivery_status field already accounts for the active channel.

Known AI Mistakes (DO NOT repeat)

These mistakes actually occurred in production. Agent must avoid them.

Error 1: Adding 28 markets without reporting count first

• WRONG: User sends Bitcoin URL → Agent runs add and adds 28 markets silently
• CORRECT: Report "This event has 28 sub-markets (14 upside + 14 downside). Add all or pick?" → wait for reply

Error 2: User says "好的" → Agent triggers run and outputs NO_REPLY

• WRONG: User says "好的" → Agent runs signalradar.py run → replies "NO_REPLY"
• CORRECT: "好的" is casual acknowledgment. Reply normally without running any command.

Error 3: Using --yes in human conversation

• WRONG: signalradar.py add <url> --yes (skips confirmation in human chat)
• CORRECT: signalradar.py add <url> (let built-in confirmation handle it; CLI force-previews large batches)

Error 4: Editing watchlist.json with Write/Edit tools

• WRONG: Edit ~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json with Write/Edit tools
• CORRECT: Use signalradar.py add, remove, config CLI commands

Error 5: Guessing config values from memory

• WRONG: "The default threshold is 5pp" (without checking)
• CORRECT: Run signalradar.py config threshold.abs_pp first, then answer with the actual value

Error 6: Writing compensatory scripts outside the skill

• WRONG: Write helper scripts outside the skill, such as send_alerts_to_telegram.py, to compensate for missing behavior
• CORRECT: Keep monitoring, scheduling, and delivery inside the skill/runtime contract. If a gap is real, fix the skill itself instead of inventing side scripts

Error 7: Treating clawhub update as a fresh install without checking data

• WRONG: After clawhub update, assume the user lost all data and treat the install as fresh without checking the runtime data directory
• CORRECT: Read the actual user data directory first (~/.signalradar/ or SIGNALRADAR_DATA_DIR) and only then decide whether migration or recovery is needed

Error 8: Not knowing you are OpenClaw Bot

• WRONG: "SignalRadar doesn't have Telegram support" → switch to file → write custom send script
• CORRECT: You ARE OpenClaw Bot. Your reply IS a Telegram message. openclaw delivery = your reply to user. Keep defaults. No extra channel or script needed.

Error 9: Compressing 3-step onboarding into one execution

• WRONG: Run all 3 onboard steps in sequence without showing the user any results
• CORRECT: Show each step's output to the user and wait for their reply before proceeding

Error 10: Claiming push readiness without checking route

• WRONG: "Background push is all set!" (without checking route_ready)
• CORRECT: Check schedule --output json → if route_ready: false, tell the user delivery is not yet armed

Error 11: Claiming push readiness without checking webhook URL

• WRONG: "Background monitoring is active and alerts will be delivered!" (when webhook URL is empty)
• CORRECT: Check doctor --output json → if webhook_url_configured: false, guide user to set up webhook URL

Quick Start

bash

# Install (OpenClaw users)
clawhub install signalradar

# Or clone directly
git clone https://github.com/vahnxu/signalradar.git && cd signalradar

# 1. Health check
python3 scripts/signalradar.py doctor --output json

# 2. Add markets (guided setup or by URL)
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add https://polymarket.com/event/your-market-here

# 3. Monitoring auto-starts after first add (every 10 min)

# 4. Check schedule status
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule

# 5. Manual check (dry-run)
python3 scripts/signalradar.py run --dry-run --output json

Common Tasks

Add a market

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py add                              # Guided setup
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add <polymarket-event-url> [--category <name>]

Flow: parse URL → query Polymarket API → show market question + current probability → user confirms → record baseline.

• If the event has multiple markets (e.g., different date brackets), the CLI shows all markets with their current probabilities before adding. For large events (>3 markets), it also shows a type summary and forces interactive confirmation even if --yes was passed.
• If some markets from the event are already monitored, only new ones are added.
• If the market is settled/expired, a warning is shown but the user can still add it.
• Category defaults to default if not specified. User is not prompted for category.
• On first-ever add (empty watchlist), a brief explanation of the baseline concept is shown.

List monitors

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py list [--category <name>] [--archived]

Shows all entries grouped by category with global sequential numbering. Each entry shows: number, question, last-known probability (from local baseline cache), end date.

--archived shows previously removed entries (preserved for export).

Show one monitored market

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py show <number-or-keyword> [--output json]

Looks up one or more monitored markets by list number or keyword, fetches current probability, and returns a read-only snapshot without updating baselines.

Remove a monitor

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py remove <number>

Shows the entry name and asks for confirmation before removing. Removed entries are archived (moved to archived array in ~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json) with full history preserved.

Run a check

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py run [--dry-run] [--output json]

Checks all active entries against Polymarket API. If probability change exceeds threshold, sends alert via configured delivery channel.

• Settled/expired entries are skipped during run, with a summary at the end: "N entries settled, consider removing."
• When multiple markets trigger in the same run, they are listed in the same notification grouped by event.
• After a HIT is pushed, the baseline updates to the new probability value. The notification text includes "baseline updated to XX%."
• --dry-run fetches and evaluates but writes no state.
• --output openclaw is reserved for platform background runs. It emits HEARTBEAT_OK on quiet checks, user-ready HIT text on realtime alerts, and digest text when a scheduled digest is due and the primary delivery channel is openclaw.

Manage schedule

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule                        # Show current status
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule 10                     # Auto driver (crontab-first)
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule 10 --driver openclaw   # Force openclaw cron
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule 10 --driver crontab    # Force system crontab
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule disable                # Disable auto-monitoring

Generate or preview digest

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest
python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest --dry-run
python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest --force
python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest --output json
python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest --output openclaw --force

digest compares the current monitored state with the previous digest snapshot, not with per-run baselines.

View or change config

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py config                          # Show all settings
python3 scripts/signalradar.py config check_interval_minutes   # Show one setting
python3 scripts/signalradar.py config threshold.abs_pp 8.0     # Change threshold
python3 scripts/signalradar.py config delivery webhook <url>   # Shortcut: set webhook channel + target in one command

Health check

bash

python3 scripts/signalradar.py doctor --output json

Returns {"status": "HEALTHY"} if Python version and network connectivity are OK. Also checks webhook_url_configured status.

Understanding Results

Status	Meaning	Action
BASELINE	First observation for an entry	Baseline recorded; no alert sent
HIT	Change exceeds threshold	Alert sent via delivery channel; baseline updated
NO_REPLY	No entries crossed threshold	Nothing to report
SILENT	Change below threshold	No alert sent

HIT output example

json

{
  "status": "HIT",
  "request_id": "9f98e47e-6e0e-4563-b7c8-87a3b19e97af",
  "hits": [
    {
      "entry_id": "polymarket:12345:gpt5-release-june:evt_67890",
      "slug": "gpt5-release-june",
      "question": "GPT-5 released by June 30, 2026?",
      "current": 41.0,
      "baseline": 32.0,
      "abs_pp": 9.0,
      "confidence": "high",
      "reason": "abs_pp 9.0 >= threshold 5.0"
    }
  ],
  "ts": "2026-03-02T08:00:00Z"
}

When presenting a HIT to the user:

GPT-5 released by June 30, 2026?: 32% → 41% (+9pp), threshold 5pp crossed. Baseline updated to 41%. 📈 7d: 28% → 41% (low 26% · high 43%) · 💰 24h vol $12.7k · liq $690k

Since v1.1.0, HIT alerts may include display-only context: a 7-day price trend (trend field, fetched from the CLOB price-history API only when a HIT fires) and 24h volume / liquidity (volume_24h / liquidity fields, taken from the market response with zero extra requests). All fields are optional — when data is unavailable the lines are omitted entirely. Set source.trend_context to false to disable. Context never affects threshold decisions, baselines, or the audit log.

Same-event grouped HIT

When multiple markets from the same event trigger:

Bitcoin price (March 31) — 3 markets crossed threshold:

• BTC > $100k: 45% → 58% (+13pp), baseline updated to 58%
• BTC > $110k: 23% → 35% (+12pp), baseline updated to 35%
• BTC > $120k: 8% → 19% (+11pp), baseline updated to 19%

Empty watchlist

If there are no entries, run returns:

json

{"status": "NO_REPLY", "message": "Watchlist is empty. Use 'signalradar.py add <url>' to add entries."}

Configuration (Optional)

All settings have sensible defaults. Runtime configuration lives at ~/.signalradar/config/signalradar_config.json.

Setting	Default	Description
threshold.abs_pp	5.0	Global threshold in percentage points (min: 0.1)
threshold.per_category_abs_pp	{}	Per-category override, e.g. {"AI": 4.0}
threshold.per_entry_abs_pp	{}	Per-entry override, key = entry_id
delivery.primary.channel	webhook	webhook (recommended), openclaw, or file
delivery.primary.target	""	Webhook URL, file path, or direct
digest.frequency	weekly	off / daily / weekly / biweekly
digest.day_of_week	monday	Weekly / biweekly digest weekday
digest.time_local	09:00	Digest local send time
digest.top_n	10	Max movers shown in human-readable digest
baseline.cleanup_after_expiry_days	90	Days after market end date to clean up baseline
profile.timezone	Asia/Shanghai	Display timezone
profile.language	""	System-message locale (zh / en); empty = automatic detection (env first, timezone fallback)

Delivery adapters

• webhook (recommended) — HTTP POST to external endpoint. Set target to webhook URL. Works with Slack, Telegram Bot API, Discord, or any HTTP endpoint. Fully portable across all platforms (OpenClaw, Claude Code, standalone). When paired with crontab scheduling driver, delivers notifications with zero LLM cost and zero platform dependency.
• file — appends alerts to a local JSONL file. Set target to file path. Portable across all platforms.
• openclaw (OpenClaw-only) — OpenClaw platform integration. In interactive chat, Agent reply IS the notification; background delivery via openclaw cron announce. Not portable to other platforms.

When user asks to set up notifications, recommend webhook first (portable, zero platform dependency). Explain that openclaw works automatically in OpenClaw interactive chat but is not portable.

For full configuration reference, see references/config.md.

Periodic Report

SignalRadar implements digest reporting. The digest uses the same delivery channel family as HIT alerts, but it compares against the previous digest snapshot instead of the per-run alert baseline.

• Includes both entries that already triggered realtime HIT alerts this period and entries that never crossed the realtime threshold but still changed net-over-period.
• Human-readable digest groups large multi-market events by event, shows only top movers, and avoids dumping every market into Telegram.
• Full detail remains available through digest --output json.
• Scheduled digest checks piggyback on normal monitoring runs; SignalRadar does not create a second standalone scheduler just for digest.
• The first automatic digest after setup/update is bootstrap-only: SignalRadar writes the initial digest snapshot silently and starts user-facing digest delivery from the next report cycle. Use digest --force if you want an immediate preview now.

Local State (What This Skill Writes)

Path	Purpose	When written
~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json	Monitored entries + archived entries	By add and remove commands
~/.signalradar/cache/baselines/*.json	Last-seen probability per market	Every non-dry-run check
~/.signalradar/cache/events/*.jsonl	Audit log of all decisions	Every non-dry-run check
~/.signalradar/cache/last_run.json	Last run timestamp and status	Every non-dry-run check
~/.signalradar/cache/digest_state.json	Last digest snapshot and report key	After digest bootstrap or successful digest delivery

• --dry-run fetches and evaluates without writing any state.
• The human user (not Agent) may hand-edit ~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json (e.g., to change categories). The system tolerates manual edits. Agent must use CLI commands only — see CR-03.
• Runtime state lives outside the skill directory under ~/.signalradar/.

Scheduling

SignalRadar attempts to auto-enable 10-minute background monitoring after the first successful add or onboard finalize. The default driver is system crontab (zero LLM cost; --push only for openclaw delivery); falls back to openclaw cron only when crontab is unavailable. Route gate: when delivery.primary.channel == openclaw + crontab driver + no captured reply route, the CLI enables monitoring but reports route_missing; do not claim background chat delivery is ready until delivery_status is ready.

On the first successful add, if profile.language is still empty, SignalRadar snapshots the detected system-message language into user config so background cron notifications remain stable.

Minimum interval: 5 minutes (prevents overlapping runs).

Threshold vs Frequency

• Threshold controls sensitivity — how much a probability must change before an alert fires. Managed per-category or per-entry via signalradar.py config.
• Frequency controls how often SignalRadar checks markets. Managed globally via signalradar.py schedule.

These are independent: a 5pp threshold with 10-minute frequency checks every 10 minutes and alerts on 5pp+ changes. A 3pp threshold with 30-minute frequency checks less often but is more sensitive when it does.

Troubleshooting

Error Code	Cause	Fix
SR_TIMEOUT	Polymarket API timeout	Check network; retry after 30s
SR_SOURCE_UNAVAILABLE	Cannot reach gamma-api.polymarket.com	Verify DNS and internet access
SR_VALIDATION_ERROR	Malformed entry data	Run python3 scripts/validate_schema.py
SR_ROUTE_FAILURE	Delivery adapter failed	Check delivery config
SR_CONFIG_CONFLICT	Contradictory config values	Review config for duplicate keys
SR_PERMISSION_DENIED	Insufficient permissions	Check file permissions on config/ and cache/

AI Agent Instructions

Agent Default Behavior

Use --output json to get structured data, then translate it to user-friendly natural language. Never send raw JSON or status codes to the user.

run vs run --dry-run:

• User explicitly asks to check → run (updates baselines)
• Agent wants to show status but unsure about updating → run --dry-run (read-only)

Network errors: On SR_TIMEOUT or SR_SOURCE_UNAVAILABLE, tell user "Polymarket API temporarily unavailable, please try later." Do not auto-retry.

Settled markets: When adding settled/expired markets, proactively tell user: "This market is settled. Adding it won't produce new alerts. Still add?" Let user decide.

Single-market lookup: For questions like "what's the GPT probability now?", prefer show <keyword-or-number>. Use run only when the user wants a full check of all monitored markets.

Presenting Results

NEVER output raw status codes (NO_REPLY, HIT, BASELINE, SILENT, ERROR) directly to user. Always translate to natural language.

• HIT: Always show market question, probability change (old% → new%), magnitude in pp, and "baseline updated to X%". Group by event when multiple markets trigger.
• BASELINE: Tell user: "First run — baselines recorded for N markets. Run again later to detect changes."
• NO_REPLY: Briefly confirm: "All markets checked. No changes exceeded the threshold."
• Empty watchlist: Guide user: "No markets monitored. Send me a Polymarket URL, or say 'add some' to browse presets."
• DIGEST: Show digest title (match frequency: "Daily"/"Weekly"/"Biweekly"), active/new/settled counts, top movers list, and next report date. For first digest (no previous snapshot), explain "This is the first report — no prior comparison available." If digest.frequency is off, tell user it's disabled and how to enable it (config digest.frequency weekly).
• User says "I never got a digest": Run digest --dry-run --output json and check due, due_reason, first_report, scheduled_local fields to diagnose.

Prohibited Actions

• Do not auto-discover or suggest markets to add. Wait for user.
• Do not create cron jobs outside of schedule command.
• Agent must not manually edit data files (see CR-03).
• No modes exist. Just run signalradar.py run.
• Do not mention Notion integration (removed in v0.5.0).
• Casual chat ("好的"/"OK"/"没事") is NOT a command. Do NOT trigger any signalradar operation.
• Do NOT change delivery channel unless user explicitly asks. You are OpenClaw Bot; openclaw channel = your reply to user. See "Platform Identity".

Runtime Output vs Documentation Conflicts

When schedule or doctor output appears to contradict SKILL.md's recommended delivery setup, follow these rules:

• Trust SKILL.md for which channel to use (webhook is recommended for portability)
• Trust runtime output for current operational status of the active channel only
• Do NOT suggest switching channels based on a status field that belongs to a different channel
• Example: if delivery is webhook and schedule shows something about route_missing — this is irrelevant to the user's setup, not a problem to fix

Language Handling

• System messages (HIT notifications, digest text, run status text) follow profile.language, supporting zh and en; empty values use automatic detection (environment first, then timezone fallback when background jobs have no locale context).
• Market questions always displayed in original English from API. Do not translate.

References

• references/config.md — Full configuration reference
• references/protocol.md — Data contract (EntrySpec, SignalEvent, DeliveryEnvelope)
• references/operations.md — SLO targets, retry policy