Aiprox Swarm

40-persona prediction engine for binary market questions. Returns YES/NO/SKIP with confidence score and reasoning from a simulated trader swarm.

SWARM

Submit a binary YES/NO market question to a 40-persona AI trader swarm. Each persona reasons independently — bulls argue for YES, bears argue for NO, neutral analysts vote freely. Confidence-weighted votes are aggregated into a final verdict with reasoning and a groupthink warning when consensus is suspiciously one-sided.

Personas: 18 bulls · 18 bears · 4 neutral analysts
Domains: crypto, macro, political, sports, general
Access: via AIProx orchestrator — capability: prediction

When to Use

• Polymarket-style binary questions: "Will X happen before Y?"
• Bitcoin and crypto price targets
• Macro events: Fed decisions, CPI outcomes, rate cuts
• Election and political outcomes
• Any question where you want a structured bull/bear debate rather than a single model's opinion

Usage Flow

1. Provide task — the binary question (minimum 10 words)
2. Optionally provide context — recent news, price levels, or market data appended as recent news: ...
3. SWARM fans the question out to 40 personas in parallel (~30–60s)
4. Returns prediction (YES/NO/SKIP), confidence (1–85), reasoning, voter_summary, domain, and groupthink_warning

Security Manifest

Permission	Scope	Reason
Network	aiprox.dev	SWARM queries via AIProx orchestrator

Make Request — Basic

bash

curl -X POST https://aiprox.dev/api/orchestrate \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "X-Spend-Token: $AIPROX_SPEND_TOKEN" \
  -d '{
    "task": "Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 before the end of 2025?",
    "capability": "prediction"
  }'

Response — Basic

json

{
  "prediction": "YES",
  "confidence": 38,
  "reasoning": "ETF Flow Tracker: Spot ETF inflows averaging $800M/week create structural demand that historically precedes new highs. | Global Liquidity Bull: M2 expansion in China and Europe is feeding into risk assets with a 6-month lag. | Leverage Flush Analyst: Open interest is elevated and funding rates are positive — a flush before the move up is likely but doesn't change the directional call.",
  "voter_summary": "Bull avg: 61 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Bear avg: 23 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Neutral: 3 YES / 1 NO / 0 SKIP | Margin: 38pts",
  "domain": "crypto",
  "persona_count": 40,
  "groupthink_warning": false
}

Make Request — With Context

bash

curl -X POST https://aiprox.dev/api/orchestrate \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "X-Spend-Token: $AIPROX_SPEND_TOKEN" \
  -d '{
    "task": "Will the Fed cut rates at its June meeting?\n\nRecent news: CPI printed 2.4% in March, below expectations. Jobs report added 175k jobs, unemployment ticked up to 4.1%. Fed chair Powell said the committee needs more confidence inflation is moving sustainably to 2% before cutting.",
    "capability": "prediction"
  }'

Response — With Context

json

{
  "prediction": "NO",
  "confidence": 29,
  "reasoning": "Higher-For-Longer Bear: Powell's explicit signal of needing more confidence, combined with still-solid employment, gives the committee cover to hold. | Macro Bear: The jobs market has not deteriorated enough to force the Fed's hand — June remains a stretch. | Economist: Base rates favor holding: the Fed has cut at only 3 of the last 12 June meetings when unemployment was below 4.2%.",
  "voter_summary": "Bull avg: 31 (17 active, 1 SKIP) | Bear avg: 60 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Neutral: 1 YES / 3 NO / 0 SKIP | Margin: 29pts",
  "domain": "macro",
  "persona_count": 40,
  "groupthink_warning": false
}

Example Prompts

text

Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 before the end of 2025?

text

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 90 days?
Context: ETH/BTC ratio is at 0.038, a 4-year low. Pectra upgrade ships next month.

text

Will the S&P 500 be higher than today in 6 months?
Context: Current level 5200. Fed on hold. Q1 earnings beat expectations by 7%.

text

Will there be a US recession before the end of 2026?

text

Will Solana flip Ethereum by market cap before 2027?

Output Fields

Field	Type	Description
prediction	string	YES, NO, or SKIP
confidence	number	1–85. Margin between bull and bear weighted averages.
reasoning	string	Top 3 reasons from the winning camp, highest-confidence personas first.
voter_summary	string	Bull avg, bear avg, neutral split, and margin in one line.
domain	string	Detected domain: crypto, macro, political, sports, or general.
persona_count	number	Always 40.
groupthink_warning	boolean	true when >80% of non-SKIP votes point the same direction.

Notes

• SKIP is a valid result. It means the bull and bear camps are within 15 confidence points — the swarm is genuinely split.
• Groupthink warning fires when consensus is very high. This can mean the question is already settled, or that the swarm lacks the context to form a contrarian view. Add news context and re-run.
• Minimum 10 words. Very short questions without context return a 400 error — the swarm needs enough signal to reason against.
• ~30–60 seconds per call. 40 parallel LLM calls run concurrently via DeepSeek.
• Domain weighting. Crypto questions weight crypto-domain personas at 1.5×. Macro questions weight macro experts. General questions use equal weights.

Trust Statement

SWARM processes your question transiently. Questions and responses are not stored beyond the active request. No authentication or API key required for the default public endpoint.