prediction-markets-research

Pulls prediction-market odds, order books, and forecast questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus via the Crawlora API, returning clean JSON. Use when the user asks what the market thinks will happen, wants current odds/prices for an event, wants a market's price history or order book, or wants a forecasting community's aggregate prediction on a question.

Pull live and historical odds, order books, and forecast questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus as normalized JSON — no scraping market-maker sites or parsing raw order-book blobs.

When to use this skill

• "What does the market think will happen with ?" / "current odds for …"
• "Show me the order book / spread / price history for this market."
• "What are the top trending prediction markets right now?"
• "What's the community forecast (Metaculus) for ?"
• Election, macro, sports, or crypto-outcome forecasting research.

Setup (one-time)

• Get a free Crawlora API key (2,000 credits/mo, no card) at https://crawlora.net.
• export CRAWLORA_API_KEY=sk_your_key_here
• All requests: x-api-key: $CRAWLORA_API_KEY against https://api.crawlora.net/api/v1. Missing/invalid key → 401.

How it works

1. Polymarket — /polymarket/search or /polymarket/events to find an event; /polymarket/event/{slug} for detail (nested markets); /polymarket/market/{id} for one market; then token-level pricing via /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price|midpoint|orderbook|spread|price-history (or the batched POST /polymarket/tokens/prices etc. for up to 25 at once). /polymarket/leaderboard and /polymarket/dashboards/macro cover traders and macro events.
2. Kalshi — /kalshi/events / /kalshi/markets to browse; /kalshi/event/{event_ticker} or /kalshi/market/{ticker} for detail; /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history for candlesticks, /kalshi/market/{ticker}/orderbook for depth, /kalshi/trades for recent fills. /kalshi/historical/* covers settled (closed) markets.
3. Metaculus — /metaculus/questions to browse; /metaculus/question/{id} for detail; /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts for the current community aggregate, /forecast-history for how it moved over time.

Full endpoint list, methods, and params: reference/endpoints.md.

Calling the API

sh

# Polymarket:
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/search q="fed rate cut" | jq '.'
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates | jq '.'

# Kalshi:
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/markets | jq '.markets[:5]'
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/market/INXD-24DEC31-T5000/history | jq '.'

# Metaculus:
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/questions | jq '.results[:5]'
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/question/12345/forecasts | jq '.'

Raw curl fallback:

sh

curl -fsS -H "x-api-key: $CRAWLORA_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.crawlora.net/api/v1/polymarket/markets" | jq '.'

Endpoint reference

See reference/endpoints.md for every Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus endpoint this skill uses.

Examples

• Cross-platform odds check: /polymarket/search and /kalshi/markets for the same real-world event, compare implied probabilities.
• Market momentum: /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history or /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price-history plotted over time to see how sentiment shifted.
• Forecast vs. market: /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts (community aggregate) alongside the matching Polymarket/Kalshi market price.

Notes & limits

• Credits / pay-on-success: billed only on 2xx; free tier 2,000 credits/mo. Key at https://crawlora.net.
• Public, credential-free data only — no trading, no order placement; read-only market data. This is not financial advice.
• Security: key lives in CRAWLORA_API_KEY only — never hardcode, query-param, or commit it.
• Batch endpoints (/polymarket/tokens/*) accept up to 25 ids per call — chunk larger lists.