Arch Garch Volatility

用 GARCH 族模型进行波动率建模与预测，支持夏普比率统计推断和 SPA 模型比较测试，应用于全球市场风险管理。

GARCH 波动率模型 (arch-garch-volatility)

用 GARCH 族模型进行波动率建模与预测，支持夏普比率统计推断和 SPA 模型比较测试，应用于全球市场风险管理。

Pipeline

data_collection -> data_storage -> factor_computation -> target_selection -> trading_execution -> visualization

Top Use Cases (9 total)

Sharpe Ratio Bootstrap Statistical Inference (UC-101)

Computes statistical inference (confidence intervals, standard errors) for the Sharpe Ratio using bootstrap methods to quantify uncertainty in risk-ad Triggers: bootstrap, sharpe ratio, statistical inference

Multiple Model Comparison with SPA Test (UC-102)

Compares 500 predictive models against a benchmark using the Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test to determine if any models significantly outperfor Triggers: model comparison, SPA test, multiple models

Oil Price Cointegration Analysis (UC-103)

Tests for cointegration relationships between WTI and Brent crude oil prices to identify mean-reverting spread opportunities using Engle-Granger and P Triggers: cointegration, unit root, ADF test

For all 9 use cases, see references/USE_CASES.md.

Execute trigger: When user intent matches intent_router.uc_entries[].positive_terms AND user uses action verb (run/execute/跑/执行/backtest/fetch/collect)

What I'll Ask You

• Target market: A-share (default), HK, or crypto? (US stocks in ZVT are half-baked — stockus_nasdaq_AAPL exists but coverage is thin)
• Data source / provider: eastmoney (free, no account), joinquant (account+paid), baostock (free, good history), akshare, or qmt (broker)?
• Strategy type: MACD golden-cross, MA crossover, volume breakout, fundamental screen, or custom factor?
• Time range: start_timestamp and end_timestamp for backtest period
• Target entity IDs: specific stocks (stock_sh_600000) or index components (SZ1000)?

Semantic Locks (Fatal)

ID	Rule	On Violation
SL-01	Execute sell orders before buy orders in every trading cycle	halt
SL-02	Trading signals MUST use next-bar execution (no look-ahead)	halt
SL-03	Entity IDs MUST follow format entity_type_exchange_code	halt
SL-04	DataFrame index MUST be MultiIndex (entity_id, timestamp)	halt
SL-05	TradingSignal MUST have EXACTLY ONE of: position_pct, order_money, order_amount	halt
SL-06	filter_result column semantics: True=BUY, False=SELL, None/NaN=NO ACTION	halt
SL-07	Transformer MUST run BEFORE Accumulator in factor pipeline	halt
SL-08	MACD parameters locked: fast=12, slow=26, signal=9	halt

Full lock definitions: references/LOCKS.md

Top Anti-Patterns (15 total)

• AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-001: Instrument NPV called without attached pricing engine
• AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-002: BSM forward price ignores dividend yield
• AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-003: Negative discount factors passed to log-domain interpolation

All 15 anti-patterns: references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md

Evidence Quality Notice

[QUALITY NOTICE] This crystal was compiled from blueprint finance-bp-124. Evidence verify ratio = 47.2% and audit fail total = 32. Generated results may have uncaptured requirement gaps. Verify critical decisions against source files (LATEST.yaml / LATEST.jsonl).

Reference Files

File	Contents	When to Load
references/seed.yaml	V6+ 全量权威 (source-of-truth)	有行为/决策争议时必读
references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md	15 条跨项目反模式	开始实现前
references/WISDOM.md	跨项目精华借鉴	架构决策时
references/CONSTRAINTS.md	domain + fatal 约束	规则冲突时
references/USE_CASES.md	全量 KUC-* 业务场景	需要完整示例时
references/LOCKS.md	SL-* + preconditions + hints	生成回测/交易代码前
references/COMPONENTS.md	AST 组件地图（按 module 拆分）	查 API 时

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Compiled by Doramagic crystal-compilation-v6.1 from finance-bp-124 blueprint at 2026-04-22T13:01:01.570350+00:00. See human_summary.md for non-technical overview.