Worldcup Predictor

Predict World Cup 2026 match outcomes using Elo ratings and Poisson model for win/draw/loss %, score, odds, and key analysis by team or match.

A World Cup match prediction tool based on the BALLDONTLIE FIFA World Cup API and NetEase Sports schedule data.

Features

• 48 teams with Elo-based strength ratings
• 72 matches (group stage A-L) with schedule and live results
• Elo + Poisson prediction model with home advantage
• Theoretical odds based on win probability (93% payout)
• Team next-match lookup and prediction

Data Sources

BALLDONTLIE FIFA World Cup API

• Site: https://fifa.balldontlie.io
• API Base: https://api.balldontlie.io/fifa/worldcup/v1
• Auth: HTTP Header Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY
• OpenAPI spec: https://www.balldontlie.io/openapi/fifa.yml

NetEase Sports Schedule

• https://sports.163.com/caipiao/worldcup2026
• 72 matches (groups A-L), with completed scores

API Key Setup

Store API key in configuration file:

{
  "skills": {
    "worldcup-predictor": {
      "api_key": "your-api-key-here"
    }
  }
}

Free Tier Endpoints

Endpoint	Path	Free
Teams	/teams	✅
Stadiums	/stadiums	✅
Standings	/group_standings	❌ (ALL-STAR)
Matches	/matches	❌ (ALL-STAR)
Odds	/odds	❌ (GOAT)

Prediction Model

The model uses Elo rating + Poisson distribution:

1. Base Elo: Team strength (50-100) mapped to Elo 1300-2000
2. Form bonus: Points from completed group matches add Elo
3. Home advantage: +70 Elo (~3-5% win rate boost)
4. Win probability: Standard Elo formula 1 / (1 + 10^((elo_away - elo_home) / 400))
5. Draw probability: Dynamic based on team closeness (15-35%)
6. Score prediction: Poisson-based expected goals

Example Output

📊 Prediction Report
══════════════════════════════════════════════════
  🇦🇷 Argentina             vs 🇦🇹 Austria

  📈 Team Strength:
  🇦🇷 Argentina   [█████████░] 95
  🇦🇹 Austria      [███████░░░] 78

  📊 Win Probability:
  🇦🇷 Argentina:   69.0%
  🤝 Draw:         19.3%
  🇦🇹 Austria:     11.7%

  ⚽ Predicted:    3 - 2

  🔑 Key Analysis:
    • Argentina clearly stronger (gap 17 pts)
    • Low draw probability due to strength gap

Usage

Commands

# List all 48 teams with strength ratings
python3 predict.py teams

# View full match schedule
python3 predict.py schedule

# View upcoming matches only
python3 predict.py schedule --upcoming

# Predict a specific match
python3 predict.py match "Brazil" "Morocco"

# Find a team's next match and predict
python3 predict.py team "Argentina"

# Today's matches with predictions
python3 predict.py today

# Refresh schedule from built-in data
python3 predict.py update

Examples

# Predict Argentina vs Austria
python3 predict.py match "Argentina" "Austria"

# Check Argentina's next match
python3 predict.py team "Argentina"

# See all upcoming matches
python3 predict.py schedule --upcoming

# See today's predictions
python3 predict.py today

File Structure

worldcup-predictor/
├── SKILL.md
└── scripts/
    ├── predict.py       # Main prediction script
    └── schedule.json    # Cached match data (auto-generated)

Configuration

The script reads the API key from the OpenClaw config at ~/.openclaw/openclaw.json:

{
  "skills": {
    "worldcup-predictor": {
      "api_key": "your-api-key-here"
    }
  }
}

Notes

• Free tier: Team & stadium data only
• ALL-STAR ($9.99/mo): Adds standings + match data (60 req/min)
• GOAT ($39.99/mo): Full access including odds (600 req/min)
• No API required for schedule: Built-in 72 match data from NetEase Sports