Polymarket Trader

v1.0.0

Build and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation.

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MIT-0
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LicenseMIT-0 · Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
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Benign
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Benign
medium confidence
Purpose & Capability
The name, SKILL.md, references/strategy.md, and the three Python scripts consistently implement a Polymarket BTC 1h Up/Down analysis flow anchored to Binance market data. All network requests go to Binance public APIs, which is expected for this purpose.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs the agent to compute fair probabilities, run bundled scripts, and validate fills. The scripts read a local events.jsonl file (paperbot state) to explain fills — this is expected, but it means the skill will access your local trading history (workspace/polymarket_paperbot/state/events.jsonl by default). Confirm you are comfortable with the skill reading those files before running.
Install Mechanism
No install spec — instruction-only plus bundled scripts. Nothing is downloaded from third-party or personal servers; scripts are included in the bundle. This minimizes install-time risk.
Credentials
The skill requests no environment variables or credentials (appropriate). It does make outbound HTTPS calls to Binance public endpoints (expected). There are no hidden endpoints or secret exfiltration attempts in the provided code. One operational caveat: scripts import dateutil (dateutil.parser) but the package is not declared in metadata; you must ensure the runtime has that dependency.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always-enabled and does not request elevated or persistent system privileges. It does read a local events.jsonl file in the workspace (expected behavior) but does not modify other skills or global agent settings.
Assessment
This skill appears to do exactly what it says: read your PaperBot events file and annotate fills using public Binance data. Before installing/running: 1) Review and confirm the script will read the local events.jsonl path — the default in explain_fills.py points to a user-specific Windows path (C:\Users\domin\...); update it to the correct workspace path to avoid accidental file reads. 2) Ensure the Python runtime includes dependencies (python-dateutil is imported but not declared). 3) Remember the scripts call Binance public APIs (rate limits apply and network access is required). 4) If you will run this against live trading or real money, audit the code yourself (or run in a sandbox) because it will read your local trading history and produce trading signals; nothing in the files attempts to exfiltrate secrets, but local data exposure is possible. 5) If you want stricter isolation, run the scripts locally on a machine you control or inspect/clean the code to your satisfaction before use.

Like a lobster shell, security has layers — review code before you run it.

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License

MIT-0
Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.

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