Polymarket Trade Agent

Trade on Polymarket by researching markets, analyzing event probabilities, managing USDC balance, and executing buy/sell orders with risk-controlled position...

Polymarket Trade Agent Skill

Overview

A fully functional Polymarket trading agent that can research markets, analyze opportunities, and execute trades.

Configuration Required

• POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY: Your Polygon wallet private key (starts with 0x...)
• POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS: Optional funder address for transfers (starts with 0x...)
• This key controls your Polymarket account and must have USDC balance

Setup

Step 1: Get Your Private Key

1. Go to polymarket.com
2. Connect your wallet (MetaMask)
3. Go to Settings → API Keys or find your wallet address
4. Get the private key for the wallet that has USDC on Polymarket

Step 2: Configure

export POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY_HERE

Step 3: Check Balance

polymarket balance

Commands

Research & Analysis

• polymarket markets - List top markets
• polymarket search <query> - Search markets
• polymarket analyze <market_id> - Get AI analysis

Trading

• polymarket balance - Check USDC balance
• polymarket buy <token_id> <price> <size> - Place buy order
• polymarket sell <token_id> <price> <size> - Place sell order
• polymarket positions - View open positions

Utility

• polymarket doctor - Health check
• polymarket address - Show your wallet address

Trading Strategy

Finding Opportunities

1. Run polymarket markets to see trending markets
2. Research the underlying events via web search
3. Compare market odds to your own probability estimate
4. Calculate edge: Edge = Your_Probability - Market_Probability

Example Analysis

Market: "Will Iran regime fall by June 30?"
Current Price: Yes = $0.42 (42% implied)
My Research: Given Khamenei killed, power vacuum exists
My Estimate: 60% probability
Edge: +18% → BUY YES

Position Sizing

• Never risk more than 5% of bankroll on single trade
• Recommended: 2-5% per trade
• Diversify across uncorrelated events

Risk Rules

1. Always verify balance before trading
2. Start with small positions (test the waters)
3. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose
4. Set mental stop-loss at 50% of position

Notes

• All trades are on Polygon network
• Minimum trade size typically $1
• Fees are small but apply to each trade