Catastrophe & Extreme Risk Trade

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records that trigger insurance a...

Security Scan

The skill's code, declared dependencies, and required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) are consistent with its stated purpose (automated trading on Polymarket via the Simmer SDK); nothing in the package appears to request unrelated secrets or perform unexpected file/system access.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description match implementation: the skill uses a SimmerClient to discover markets and place trades. The single required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) and declared pip dependency (simmer-sdk) are directly relevant to trading on Simmer/Polymarket.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py keep scope to market discovery and trading. The README advertises external data sources (NOAA, USGS, NIFC) as optional signal sources, but the shipped code does not fetch those — it's a template. If you or someone extends the skill to use those APIs, network access expands accordingly; current instructions do not read unrelated local files or secrets.

Install Mechanism

No custom installer; clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk'. Installing from PyPI is standard practice; review the simmer-sdk package source to confirm behavior before granting credentials.

Credentials

Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required (plus optional SIMMER_* tunables). That credential is appropriate for a trading client. The code also calls apply_skill_config(SKILL_SLUG) which may update environment tunables via the Simmer service — expected but worth noting.

Persistence & Privilege

autostart is false and there is no 'always: true'. The skill can be invoked autonomously by the agent (platform default), but it defaults to paper trading; real trades require the explicit --live flag. No evidence the skill modifies other skills or system-wide configs.

Assessment

This package appears coherent for an automated Polymarket trading tool. Before installing: 1) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY if you trust the Simmer/SpartanLabsXyz service and have reviewed the simmer-sdk source or its permissions; treat the key as high-value and restrict/rotate it where possible. 2) Keep the default paper/sim mode while testing; real trades require explicit --live. 3) Do not enable autostart/cron unless you intend autonomous recurring trading. 4) If you or a teammate extend the template to call NOAA/USGS/NIFC or other external services, review those integrations for additional network/credential needs. 5) If you need stronger assurance, audit the simmer-sdk package (or run the skill in an isolated environment) to confirm it does only expected API calls and does not exfiltrate other environment variables.

Catastrophe & Extreme Risk Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

NOAA seasonal outlooks + GFS/ECMWF model ensemble divergence as signal. NHC track cone as directional indicator for named storm markets.

Edge Thesis

Catastrophe markets are uniquely mis-priced because retail traders anchor on the most recent disaster (availability bias) rather than historical base rates. NOAA publishes probabilistic seasonal forecasts (e.g. '60% chance of above-normal hurricane season') that directly translate to Polymarket prices — but the market often over- or under-reacts by 15–25%. The specific edge: the first tropical storm of the season causes a 20–40% repricing spike on subsequent named-storm markets, even when the forecast hasn't changed.

Remix Signal Ideas

• NOAA National Hurricane Center API: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ — Track cone data, storm probability, seasonal outlooks
• USGS Earthquake Hazards API: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/ — Real-time seismic data — M2.5+ globally, seconds after event
• NIFC Wildfire Statistics: https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics — Year-to-date acres burned vs 10-year average

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	See clawhub.json	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	See clawhub.json	Min market volume filter
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	See clawhub.json	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	See clawhub.json	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	See clawhub.json	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk