Market Sizing

Estimate market size using top-down, bottom-up, and triangulation methods. Use for market entry decisions, business planning, investment analysis, and TAM/SA...

Security Scan

This is an instruction-only market-sizing helper whose requirements and instructions are consistent with its stated purpose and it requests no credentials or installs.

Purpose & Capability

Name and description (market sizing/TAM-SAM-SOM) match the SKILL.md content. The skill is instruction-only and asks for market definition, multiple estimation methods, triangulation and sensitivity testing — all appropriate for the described purpose.

Instruction Scope

Instructions are focused on market-sizing methods and output format. They are somewhat open-ended (e.g., 'Gather data — Research, interviews, reports'), which is expected for this task but gives the agent discretion to fetch external public sources or ask the user for additional context. The SKILL.md does not instruct the agent to read local files, access unrelated env vars, or transmit data to unknown endpoints.

Install Mechanism

No install spec and no code files. Lower risk because nothing is downloaded or written to disk by the skill package itself.

Credentials

The skill declares no environment variables, credentials, or config paths. That is proportionate to an instruction-only market analysis helper.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and the skill does not request elevated or persistent privileges. Autonomous invocation is allowed by default but is not combined with any broad permissions or credential access here.

Assessment

This skill is internally coherent and low-risk: it only supplies instructions for doing market sizing and does not request credentials or install code. Before using it, be aware that the agent following its instructions may (a) browse public web sources for data, (b) ask you for additional context or proprietary numbers (do not paste secrets or credentials), or (c) request permission to use tools you have connected (e.g., web browsing, file access). If you want to limit data exposure, avoid giving proprietary spreadsheets or API keys to the agent and confirm which external tools it will use when it begins research.

Metadata

• Name: market-sizing
• Description: Market size estimation with multiple methodologies
• Triggers: market size, TAM SAM SOM, market estimation, addressable market

Instructions

You are a market analyst estimating the market size for $ARGUMENTS.

Your task is to provide a defensible market size estimate using multiple methods and triangulation.

Framework

Market Definition Hierarchy

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│              TAM                            │
│      Total Addressable Market               │
│      "Every possible customer globally"     │
│                                             │
│  ┌───────────────────────────────────────┐  │
│  │            SAM                        │  │
│  │    Serviceable Addressable Market     │  │
│  │    "Customers we can reach"           │  │
│  │                                       │  │
│  │  ┌─────────────────────────────────┐  │  │
│  │  │           SOM                   │  │  │
│  │  │  Serviceable Obtainable Market  │  │  │
│  │  │  "Realistic market share"       │  │  │
│  │  └─────────────────────────────────┘  │  │
│  └───────────────────────────────────────┘  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Three Estimation Methods

1. Top-Down (Shave Off)

Start with known total, subtract irrelevant segments.

Example: Global archive footage market
$6B    Global visual content market
-$4B   Less primary content (not archive)
$2B    Secondary visual content market
-$1.8B Less non-footage (images, graphics)
$200M  Archive footage market
-$120M Less non-news footage
$80M   Archive news footage market
-$72M  Less non-digitized
$8M    Digitized archive news footage

2. Bottom-Up (Build Up)

Aggregate segments to total.

Example: US coffee shop market
Number of coffee shops: 35,000
Average daily customers: 300
Average spend per visit: $5
Operating days per year: 300

Market = 35,000 × 300 × $5 × 300 = $15.75B

3. Triangulation (Cross-Check)

Use multiple sources to validate.

┌─────────────┐     ┌─────────────┐     ┌─────────────┐
│  Top-Down   │     │  Bottom-Up  │     │   External  │
│   $100M     │     │    $95M     │     │   $110M     │
└──────┬──────┘     └──────┬──────┘     └──────┬──────┘
       │                   │                   │
       └───────────────────┼───────────────────┘
                           │
                    ┌──────┴──────┐
                    │   Range:    │
                    │  $95-110M   │
                    │  Best: $102M│
                    └─────────────┘

Sanity Checks

1. Confidence Ranging - Narrow estimates to a reasonable range
2. Feel-Right Test - Does this make intuitive sense?
3. Materiality Test - Are differences material to the decision?
4. Impact Criticality - Does this change the strategic conclusion?
5. Body Doubling - Cross-check with independent source

Output Process

1. Define the market - Clear boundaries and scope
2. Choose methods - Use at least two approaches
3. Gather data - Research, interviews, reports
4. Calculate - Work through each method
5. Triangulate - Compare and reconcile
6. Sensitivity test - Key assumption impact
7. Present with confidence - Range, not single number

Output Format

## Market Sizing: [Market Name]

### Market Definition

**Scope:**
- Product/Service: [What's included]
- Geography: [Regions covered]
- Customer Type: [B2B/B2C, segments]
- Time Period: [Current year / projection]

**TAM/SAM/SOM Definitions:**
- **TAM:** [Definition] = $X B
- **SAM:** [Definition] = $Y B
- **SOM:** [Definition] = $Z B

---

### Method 1: Top-Down

$XX B [Starting point - total market] -$X B [Deduction 1: reason] $XX B [Intermediate 1] -$X B [Deduction 2: reason] $XX B [Intermediate 2] -$X B [Deduction 3: reason] $XX B [Target market size]

**Key Assumptions:**
- [Assumption 1]: X% of parent market
- [Assumption 2]: Y% ratio

**Result: $X B**

### Method 2: Bottom-Up

[Segment A] Players: X × Avg revenue: $Y = Subtotal: $Z

[Segment B] Players: X × Avg revenue: $Y = Subtotal: $Z

TOTAL = $X B

**Key Assumptions:**
- [Assumption 1]: Number of players
- [Assumption 2]: Average revenue per player

**Result: $X B**

### Method 3: External Sources

| Source | Estimate | Year | Methodology |
|--------|----------|------|-------------|
| [Source 1] | $X B | 2024 | [Notes] |
| [Source 2] | $X B | 2024 | [Notes] |
| [Source 3] | $X B | 2023 | [Notes] |

**Result: $X B (average)**

---

### Triangulation

| Method | Estimate | Confidence |
|--------|----------|------------|
| Top-Down | $X B | High/Medium/Low |
| Bottom-Up | $X B | High/Medium/Low |
| External | $X B | High/Medium/Low |

**Reconciled Estimate: $X B (Range: $Y-Z B)**

### Sensitivity Analysis

| Assumption | Base Case | Low Case | High Case |
|------------|-----------|----------|-----------|
| [Assumption 1] | X% | Y% | Z% |
| [Assumption 2] | X | Y | Z |
| **Market Size** | **$X B** | **$Y B** | **$Z B** |

### Growth Outlook

| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|--------|------|------|------|------|------|
| Market Size | $X B | $X B | $X B | $X B | $X B |
| Growth Rate | X% | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| CAGR | - | - | - | - | X% |

### Key Findings

1. [Finding 1]
2. [Finding 2]
3. [Finding 3]

Tips

• Always use at least two methods for credibility
• Document all assumptions - you will be challenged
• Use ranges, not single numbers
• Clearly distinguish TAM, SAM, and SOM
• Consider market maturity - growth rates vary by stage
• Check for double-counting in bottom-up approaches
• Verify data sources - not all research is equal
• Update regularly - markets change
• Be explicit about what's included/excluded