Kalshi Eth Merge Momentum Trader

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the post-merge deflation thesis. ETH burns ~0.5% of supply annually via EIP-1559, creating structural upward pressure. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

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Install

openclaw skills install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader

Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.

Key advantages:

Structural thesis -- supply reduction is mechanical, not speculative
Time-sensitive -- longer time horizons amplify the deflation effect
Verifiable -- burn rate data is on-chain and public

Signal Logic

Deflation Model

Compute deflation-adjusted price: adj = base * (1 + net_deflation * days/365 * 0.5)
Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model
Compare fair probability to market price
Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

Live burn rate: Track ultrasound.money for real-time ETH burn data
Dynamic issuance: Adjust for changing validator count
Gas price correlation: Higher gas = higher burn = more deflation
Macro overlay: Fed rate expectations affect crypto demand

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Annual burn rate	0.5%	ETH supply burn rate assumption
Base ETH price	$3500	Current ETH price baseline

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
`SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE`	`0.10`	Min divergence to trigger trade
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	`0.45`	Sell position when price reaches this level
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD`	`5.00`	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	`3`	Max trades per execution cycle
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	`0.15`	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	`0`	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT`	`0.5`	Annual ETH supply burn rate (%)
`SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE`	`3500`	Current ETH price baseline ($)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.