Geopolitics Expert

Geopolitical conflict analysis for war sentiment assessment. Use when analyzing armed conflicts, military interventions, or regional crises to determine conf...

Security Scan

The skill's instructions, resources, and runtime behavior are coherent with its stated purpose (geopolitical conflict analysis); it is instruction-only, requests no credentials, and has no install steps.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (conflict analysis, war duration, economic impacts, trading odds) match the included assets and the runtime instructions. The only required inputs are a news URL and the included frameworks; no unrelated credentials, binaries, or config paths are requested.

Instruction Scope

Runtime instructions are narrowly scoped: fetch an article (via web_fetch), apply the included frameworks (references/frameworks.md), and produce a structured five-part analysis. This stays within the stated purpose. Note: the frameworks contain prescriptive language (e.g., lists of 'Next Potential Targets') and explicit guidance for asserting probabilities and trading recommendations; those are content-level risks (misinformation, escalation, financial advice) rather than technical ones. The skill does not instruct reading local files, environment variables, or exfiltrating data.

Install Mechanism

No install spec and no code files that would be downloaded or written to disk. Instruction-only skills are lower risk from an install perspective.

Credentials

The skill requests no environment variables, credentials, or config paths. The lack of secrets or external credentials is proportionate to the stated analytical purpose.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and the skill does not request elevated persistence or system-wide changes. Autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) but not combined with any other privilege escalation or broad credential access.

Assessment

This skill appears internally consistent and low-risk from a technical standpoint because it is instruction-only and asks for no credentials. Before using: 1) Treat its probabilistic assertions and trading/opinionated recommendations as speculative — verify with independent sources and domain experts; do not rely on it for operational military decisions or as sole financial advice. 2) Be aware the included frameworks contain potentially sensitive or escalation-prone language (e.g., named 'next potential targets'); monitor outputs for propagandistic, biased, or harmful recommendations. 3) Because it fetches external news URLs, avoid passing private or sensitive URLs you don't want fetched. If you need the skill to operate in a constrained mode, require human review of any content that recommends real-world actions (military or financial).

Analyzes armed conflicts through integrated frameworks to assess war duration, economic impact, and termination scenarios.

Usage

geopolitics-expert <news_url>

The skill fetches the news URL and produces a structured analysis with five outputs.

Workflow

Step 1: Fetch and Parse News Content

Use web_fetch to extract article content from the provided URL.

Step 2: Apply Analytical Frameworks

Analyze the conflict using these integrated frameworks (stored in references/):

1. Strategic Gravity — forever war vs short war indicators
2. Modern Doctrines — US intervention triggers and target selection
3. Five Pathways — conflict termination scenarios
4. Perpetual Quagmire — forever war risk factors
5. IRGCistan — post-theocratic military state dynamics
6. Hormuz Siege — chokepoint weaponization patterns
7. Reopening Blueprints — strategic options for de-escalation

Step 3: Generate Structured Output

Produce analysis in this exact format:

## 1. Conclusion
[Core assessment of the conflict situation]

## 2. Economic/Commodity Impact
[Effects on oil, gas, fertilizers, supply chains, inflation]

## 3. Commodity Trading Odds
[Assessment of trading opportunities: long/short positions, risk factors]

## 4. War Duration Categorization
- **Short-term war probability**: X%
- **Long-term/forever war probability**: Y%
- **Key indicators**: [list specific factors from Strategic Gravity framework]

## 5. Termination Scenarios
[Summary of which pathways could end this conflict, ranked by likelihood]

Framework Reference

Read references/frameworks.md for detailed analytical models when complex conflicts require deeper assessment.

Output Guidelines

• Be decisive — provide clear probabilities, not vague ranges
• Anchor to frameworks — cite specific indicators from the loaded models
• Economic focus — always tie back to commodity impacts (oil, gas, fertilizer, shipping)
• Scenario-ranked — order termination scenarios by probability, not alphabetically