Backtest Poller

Background daemon that monitors QuantConnect backtests with adaptive polling, real-time equity tracking, drawdown early-stop, auto-download, and auto-diagnosis — survives terminal disconnection.

Never babysit a 3-hour backtest again. This skill runs a background daemon that monitors your QuantConnect backtests, auto-stops on excessive drawdown, downloads results when done, runs forensic diagnosis, and sends you a system notification.

When to use

• After submitting a backtest: "Monitor this backtest in the background"
• "Start the poller daemon"
• "Check backtest status"
• "Show me the poller logs"

Architecture

The poller runs as a nohup background process that survives terminal disconnection. All state is persisted to state.json with file-locking to prevent CLI/poller race conditions.

User submits backtest
        |
        v
  [Poller Daemon] (nohup, runs independently)
        |
        |-- Every 30-180s: check QC API
        |-- Track equity & peak equity
        |-- Calculate live drawdown
        |
        |-- If DD > threshold at 20%+ progress:
        |     |-- Delete backtest (early stop)
        |     |-- Record result
        |     \-- Send notification
        |
        |-- If completed:
        |     |-- Download orders.csv + result.json
        |     |-- Run OrderForensics diagnosis
        |     |-- Generate diagnosis.txt
        |     |-- Update state.json
        |     \-- Send macOS notification
        |
        \-- If no active backtests: exit gracefully

Adaptive Polling Intervals

Instead of a fixed 30s interval (360 API calls for a 3-hour backtest), the poller adapts based on progress:

Phase	Progress	Interval	Rationale
Startup	0%, < 2min elapsed	30s	Confirm backtest actually started
Normal	0-30%	120s	Steady tracking
Midgame	30-80%	180s	Low frequency, save API quota
Endgame	> 80%	60s	Nearly done, check frequently

Result: ~50 API calls instead of ~360 for a 3-hour backtest.

CLI Commands

Submit a backtest (auto-starts poller)

python3 cli.py submit \
  --main-file strategy.py \
  --name "MyStrategy_v1" \
  --max-dd 40

Check status of all backtests

python3 cli.py status

Shows a table with: name, status, progress %, current equity, live drawdown, elapsed time.

View poller logs

python3 cli.py logs --lines 30

View completed results

python3 cli.py results --name "MyStrategy_v1" --full

Manually start/stop the poller

python3 cli.py start-poller
python3 cli.py stop-poller

Clean up completed records

python3 cli.py clear

State Management

All state is stored in state.json:

{
  "poller_pid": 12345,
  "poller_running": true,
  "poller_started": "2026-03-17T10:00:00",
  "backtests": [
    {
      "backtest_id": "abc123",
      "name": "MyStrategy_v1",
      "status": "running",
      "progress": 0.45,
      "peak_equity": 12500,
      "current_equity": 11200,
      "live_drawdown": 0.104,
      "max_dd_threshold": 0.40,
      "auto_download": true,
      "auto_diagnose": true
    }
  ]
}

File-locking (fcntl.flock) prevents race conditions between the CLI and the poller daemon writing to the same file.

Auto-Diagnosis

When a backtest completes, the poller automatically:

1. Downloads orders.csv and result.json to results/<name>/
2. Runs OrderForensics.full_diagnosis() to generate diagnosis.txt
3. Extracts a summary: order count, option ROI, zero rate, windfall count

Notifications

On macOS, the poller sends a system notification via osascript when a backtest finishes.

Graceful Shutdown

The daemon handles SIGTERM and SIGINT for clean exit. It clears its PID from state.json only if the PID still matches (prevents stale cleanup from a different process).

Rules

• Never submit more than one backtest at a time. QuantConnect free tier only allows one concurrent backtest per project. Submitting a second will silently queue or fail.
• Never manually edit state.json while the poller is running. Use the CLI commands (submit, clear) to modify state. The file uses fcntl.flock locking — manual edits bypass the lock and can corrupt state.
• Never run multiple poller instances simultaneously. The CLI checks for an existing PID before starting. If you force-start a second poller, both will race on state.json writes.
• Do not delete files in results/ while the poller is actively downloading. Wait for the "completed" status.
• Early-stop deletes the backtest permanently from QuantConnect. There is no "pause" API — early-stopped backtests cannot be resumed or recovered.
• Environment variables QC_USER_ID, QC_API_TOKEN, and QC_PROJECT_ID must be set before running any command. The skill will fail with a clear error if they are missing.