Install
openclaw skills install afrexai-growth-engineDesign, execute, and measure growth systems — from North Star definition through viral loops, experimentation, and scaling. Complete AARRR+ framework with te...
openclaw skills install afrexai-growth-engineComplete growth system: experimentation engine, viral mechanics, channel playbooks, funnel optimization, retention loops, and scaling frameworks. From zero users to exponential growth.
Before experimenting, diagnose. Run this 8-dimension health check:
Rate each 1-5, multiply by weight:
| Dimension | Weight | Score (1-5) | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product-Market Fit | 3x | __ | __ |
| Activation Rate | 3x | __ | __ |
| Retention (Week 4) | 3x | __ | __ |
| Referral/Virality | 2x | __ | __ |
| Revenue per User | 2x | __ | __ |
| Channel Diversity | 1x | __ | __ |
| Experiment Velocity | 2x | __ | __ |
| Data Infrastructure | 1x | __ | __ |
Scoring: 68-85 = Growth-ready. 50-67 = Fix foundations first. <50 = Stop growth spending, fix product.
Do NOT invest in growth until these pass:
pmf_gate:
sean_ellis_test: "≥40% would be 'very disappointed' if product disappeared"
retention_curve: "Flattens (does not trend to zero) by week 8"
organic_growth: "≥10% of new users come from referral/word-of-mouth"
nps: "≥30"
qualitative: "Users describe product to friends without prompting"
If PMF gate fails: Stop. Go back to product. Growth without PMF = pouring water into a leaky bucket.
Your North Star Metric (NSM) must pass all 4 tests:
| Business Type | NSM | Why |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS (B2B) | Weekly Active Teams | Teams = sticky, revenue follows |
| Marketplace | Weekly Transactions | Both sides getting value |
| Subscription Media | Weekly Reading Time | Engagement predicts retention |
| E-commerce | Weekly Repeat Purchases | Retention > acquisition |
| Social/Community | Daily Active Users posting | Creators drive content loop |
| Dev Tools | Weekly API Calls | Usage = integration depth |
| Fintech | Weekly $ Managed | Trust + engagement |
North Star Metric
├── Input Metric 1: [driver you can directly influence]
├── Input Metric 2: [driver you can directly influence]
├── Input Metric 3: [driver you can directly influence]
└── Guard Metric: [thing that must NOT decrease]
Example (SaaS):
Weekly Active Teams (NSM)
├── New team activations/week (acquisition input)
├── Features used per team/week (engagement input)
├── Teams inviting 3+ members/week (virality input)
└── Guard: Churn rate must stay <3%/month
Every experiment gets scored before running:
| Dimension | Score 1-10 | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Impact | __ | If this works, how much does NSM move? |
| Confidence | __ | How sure are we it'll work? (data/analogies/gut) |
| Ease | __ | How fast/cheap to test? (days, not weeks) |
ICE Score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) / 3
Run experiments scoring ≥7 first. Kill anything below 5.
experiment:
id: "GRW-042"
name: "Add social proof counter to pricing page"
hypothesis: "Showing '2,847 teams trust us' increases plan selection by 15%"
north_star_impact: "More paid conversions → more Weekly Active Teams"
ice_score:
impact: 7
confidence: 6
ease: 9
total: 7.3
type: "A/B test"
audience: "All pricing page visitors"
sample_size_needed: 2400 # for 95% confidence, 80% power
duration: "7-14 days"
primary_metric: "Pricing page → checkout conversion rate"
secondary_metrics:
- "Average plan tier selected"
- "Time on pricing page"
guard_metrics:
- "Support tickets about pricing must not increase >10%"
status: "running" # proposed | running | won | lost | inconclusive
result:
lift: "+18.3%"
confidence: "97.2%"
decision: "Ship to 100%"
learnings: "Social proof most effective on annual plans. Monthly plan conversion unchanged."
next_experiment: "Test specific customer logos vs generic count"
| Stage | Experiments/Week | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-PMF | 5-10 | Product experiments (features, UX, messaging) |
| Early Growth | 3-5 | Activation + retention experiments |
| Scaling | 5-10 | Channel + conversion experiments |
| Mature | 10-20 | Micro-optimizations + new channels |
n = 16 × σ² / δ² or online calculator)Score each channel before investing:
channel_evaluation:
name: "[Channel]"
scores:
estimated_volume: 8 # 1-10: How many users can this deliver?
targeting_precision: 7 # 1-10: Can we reach our ICP specifically?
cost_per_acquisition: 6 # 1-10: How cheap? (10 = free/organic)
time_to_results: 4 # 1-10: How fast? (10 = same day)
scalability: 7 # 1-10: Can we 10x spend and 10x output?
defensibility: 8 # 1-10: Hard for competitors to copy?
total: 40 # out of 60
verdict: "Test with $500 budget over 2 weeks"
Organic Channels (low cost, slow build):
SEO/Content
Community/Forum Marketing
Referral/Word-of-Mouth
Social Media (Organic)
Partnerships/Integrations
Product-Led SEO
Paid Channels (fast results, requires budget):
Search Ads (Google/Bing)
Social Ads (Meta/LinkedIn/TikTok)
Influencer/Creator
Cold Outreach (Email/LinkedIn)
Leverage Channels (unconventional):
PR/Media
Platform Piggyback
The "Bull's Eye" Framework:
aha_moment:
description: "The specific action where users first experience core value"
examples:
slack: "Sent 2,000 team messages"
dropbox: "Put 1 file in Dropbox folder"
facebook: "Added 7 friends in 10 days"
hubspot: "Imported contacts and sent first email"
your_product:
action: "[specific action]"
threshold: "[quantity/frequency]"
timeframe: "[within X days of signup]"
validation: "Users who reach aha moment retain at 2x+ rate of those who don't"
Signup → [Step 1] → [Step 2] → ... → Aha Moment → Retained User
| | | |
v v v v
Drop-off Drop-off Drop-off Success
rate % rate % rate % rate %
Map EVERY step. Measure EVERY drop-off. Fix the BIGGEST leak first.
Signup → First Session:
First Session → Key Action:
Key Action → Aha Moment:
activation_metrics:
signup_to_first_session: "Target: >80% within 24h"
first_session_to_key_action: "Target: >60% within session 1"
key_action_to_aha: "Target: >40% within 7 days"
overall_activation_rate: "Target: >30% (signup → aha within 14 days)"
benchmark_comparison: "[industry average is X%, we're at Y%]"
Track weekly cohorts (by signup week):
Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 8 Week 12
Cohort A 100% 45% 32% 28% 25% 22% 20%
Cohort B 100% 52% 38% 33% 30% 27% 25%
Cohort C 100% 48% 35% 30% 27% 24% 22%
What to look for:
| Product Type | Good Week-4 | Great Week-4 | Week-12 Floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| SaaS (B2B) | 30% | 50%+ | 20%+ |
| Consumer App | 15% | 25%+ | 10%+ |
| Marketplace | 20% | 35%+ | 15%+ |
| Gaming | 10% | 20%+ | 5%+ |
Week 1 drop-off (activation problem):
Week 2-4 drop-off (habit problem):
Week 4+ decline (value problem):
Design self-reinforcing loops:
User takes action → Gets value → Triggers notification/reminder → User returns → Takes deeper action
Types of engagement loops:
| Pricing Model | Growth Impact | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| Freemium | High viral potential, low conversion (2-5%) | Network effects, large TAM |
| Free trial | Higher conversion (10-25%), time pressure | Clear aha moment within trial |
| Usage-based | Natural expansion, low barrier | API/infrastructure, measurable value |
| Flat rate | Simple, predictable, easy to sell | Simple product, single persona |
| Per-seat | Expansion revenue, team adoption incentive | Collaboration tools |
unit_economics:
cac: "$[X]" # Total sales+marketing / new customers
ltv: "$[X]" # Average revenue × average lifetime
ltv_cac_ratio: "[X]:1" # Target: >3:1. Below 1 = losing money
payback_months: "[X]" # Target: <12 months (SaaS), <3 months (consumer)
gross_margin: "[X]%" # Target: >70% (SaaS), >40% (marketplace)
expansion_revenue: "[X]%" # % of revenue from existing customers expanding
ndr: "[X]%" # Net Dollar Retention. Target: >100% (ideally >120%)
See Section 5 (Viral Mechanics) for complete referral system design.
K = invites_sent_per_user × conversion_rate_of_invites
K > 1 = exponential growth (every user brings >1 new user)
K = 0.5 = good amplifier (50% more users from virality)
K < 0.3 = not meaningfully viral
K-factor alone isn't enough. Speed matters:
Viral Cycle Time = time from user signup → their invite → invitee signup
Shorter cycle = faster growth (even with K < 1)
Goal: Reduce viral cycle time to <48 hours.
referral_program:
name: "[Program name]"
mechanics:
referrer_reward: "[What they get]"
referee_reward: "[What invitee gets]"
reward_trigger: "Referee must [complete activation action] before rewards unlock"
reward_type: "product_credit" # cash | product_credit | feature_unlock | status
cap: "10 referrals/month" # Prevent gaming
distribution:
share_methods:
- "Unique referral link (primary)"
- "Email invite from product"
- "Social share buttons (Twitter, LinkedIn)"
- "QR code for in-person"
placement:
- "Post-aha-moment celebration screen"
- "Settings/account page"
- "Monthly usage summary email"
- "In-app prompt after positive action (e.g., saved money, closed deal)"
tracking:
metrics:
- "Share rate: % of users who share referral link"
- "Click-through rate: % of link viewers who click"
- "Conversion rate: % of clickers who sign up"
- "Activation rate: % of referred signups who activate"
- "K-factor: shares × CTR × signup × activation"
cohort_quality: "Compare referred users vs non-referred on Day 30 retention + LTV"
optimization_experiments:
- "Test reward amount ($5 vs $10 vs $20)"
- "Test reward type (credit vs cash vs feature)"
- "Test referral prompt timing (post-signup vs post-aha vs post-payment)"
- "Test share copy (3 variants)"
For products where output sharing drives growth:
Funnels are linear (top → bottom, then done). Loops are circular — output becomes input.
[New User] → [Takes Action] → [Creates Value] → [Attracts New User] → repeat
User creates content → Content gets indexed/shared → New user discovers content → Signs up to create own → Creates content
Revenue → Reinvest in ads → Acquire users → Users generate revenue → Reinvest more
Close deal → Case study/testimonial → Use in sales materials → Close next deal faster
Users use product → Product collects data → Product improves (AI/ML/recommendations) → More valuable for all users → More users join
Supply joins → Attracts demand → Demand attracts more supply → More selection attracts more demand
Expert users help newbies → Newbies become power users → Power users help next wave → Community grows
| Funnel Step | Median | Good | Excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landing page → Signup | 2-3% | 5-8% | 10%+ |
| Signup → Activation | 20-30% | 40-50% | 60%+ |
| Free → Paid | 2-3% | 5-7% | 10%+ |
| Trial → Paid | 10-15% | 20-30% | 40%+ |
| Annual → Renewal | 70-80% | 85-90% | 92%+ |
welcome_sequence:
- day: 0
trigger: "Signup"
subject: "Welcome — here's your quick win"
content: "One specific action to get value in <5 minutes"
cta: "Do [aha action] now"
- day: 1
trigger: "Has NOT completed aha action"
subject: "[First name], you're 1 step away"
content: "Show what they'll get once they complete the action"
cta: "Complete setup"
- day: 3
trigger: "Still not activated"
subject: "How [similar company] uses [Product]"
content: "Case study / use case matching their profile"
cta: "Try this approach"
- day: 7
trigger: "Not activated"
subject: "Need help? Reply to this email"
content: "Personal note from founder. Offer 1:1 call"
cta: "Reply or book call"
- day: 14
trigger: "Still not activated"
subject: "Last chance: your [Product] account"
content: "We'll archive your account in 7 days. Here's what you're missing"
cta: "Reactivate"
reengagement:
- trigger: "14 days inactive"
subject: "We miss you — here's what's new"
content: "Top 3 new features/improvements since they left"
- trigger: "30 days inactive"
subject: "[First name], [specific value they got] is waiting"
content: "Reference their actual usage data. Show what they've built"
- trigger: "60 days inactive"
subject: "Should we close your account?"
content: "FOMO trigger. Offer win-back discount (20-30% off)"
- trigger: "90 days inactive"
subject: "Feedback request (we'll shut up after this)"
content: "Why did you leave? 3-question survey. Offer incentive"
Rules:
Build an early warning system. Track these leading indicators:
| Signal | Timeframe | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Login frequency drops 50%+ | Week over week | 🟡 Medium |
| Key feature usage stops | 7 days | 🟡 Medium |
| Support ticket unresolved >48h | Rolling | 🟡 Medium |
| No logins for 14+ days | Rolling | 🔴 High |
| Billing failure (payment method expired) | Event | 🔴 High |
| Export/download of all data | Event | 🔴 Critical |
| Admin user leaves company | Event | 🔴 Critical |
Response playbook: Trigger automated outreach at 🟡, human outreach at 🔴.
scale_criteria:
channel: "[name]"
ready_when:
- "CAC is <1/3 of LTV"
- "Conversion rates are stable for 4+ weeks"
- "Process is documented and repeatable"
- "Can increase spend 50% without CAC rising >20%"
warning_signs:
- "CAC rising >20% month-over-month"
- "Conversion rates declining"
- "Quality of leads/users dropping (lower activation rate)"
- "Creative fatigue (CTR declining)"
Growth Lead (you)
├── Runs experiments (2-3/week)
├── Manages 1-2 channels
├── Analyzes data weekly
└── Writes copy/creates content
Focus: Find ONE channel that works. Don't spread thin.
Head of Growth
├── Acquisition Lead → paid, SEO, partnerships
├── Product/Growth Engineer → experiments, features, A/B tests
├── Lifecycle/CRM → emails, notifications, retention
└── Data Analyst → metrics, cohorts, experiment analysis
| Meeting | Frequency | Duration | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Experiment standup | 2x/week | 15 min | Status of running experiments |
| Metrics review | Weekly | 30 min | NSM, funnel metrics, cohort review |
| Experiment planning | Weekly | 45 min | Prioritize next week's experiments (ICE scoring) |
| Growth strategy | Monthly | 90 min | Channel performance, resource allocation, quarterly goals |
analytics_stack:
product_analytics: "Mixpanel or Amplitude or PostHog (free tier)"
web_analytics: "Google Analytics 4 + Google Tag Manager"
attribution: "UTM parameters (mandatory on ALL links)"
ab_testing: "PostHog or GrowthBook (free) or Optimizely (paid)"
email: "Customer.io or Resend or SendGrid"
crm: "HubSpot (free) or Pipedrive"
session_recording: "Hotjar or FullStory (free tier)"
surveys: "Typeform or native in-app"
utm_source: [platform] — google, linkedin, twitter, email, partner-name
utm_medium: [type] — cpc, social, email, referral, organic
utm_campaign: [campaign-name] — q1-launch, black-friday, webinar-series
utm_content: [variant] — hero-cta, sidebar-banner, email-v2
utm_term: [keyword] — only for paid search
Rule: Every external link gets UTMs. No exceptions. Untracked traffic = wasted budget.
Track these events minimum:
required_events:
acquisition:
- "page_view (with UTM params)"
- "signup_started"
- "signup_completed"
activation:
- "onboarding_step_completed (step_number)"
- "first_key_action"
- "aha_moment_reached"
engagement:
- "feature_used (feature_name)"
- "session_started"
- "session_duration"
revenue:
- "plan_selected (plan_name, price)"
- "payment_completed (amount, plan)"
- "upgrade (from_plan, to_plan)"
- "churn (reason)"
referral:
- "referral_link_shared (method)"
- "referral_link_clicked"
- "referred_signup"
- "referred_activated"
Diagnostic checklist:
| Dimension | B2B | B2C |
|---|---|---|
| Sales cycle | Weeks-months | Minutes-days |
| Decision makers | 3-7 people | 1 person |
| Channels | LinkedIn, content, events, outbound | Social, SEO, paid, viral |
| Pricing | Value-based, negotiated | Fixed, transparent |
| Retention driver | Switching cost, integration depth | Habit, engagement |
| Referral mechanics | Case studies, introductions | In-product, social sharing |
Chicken-and-egg solution order:
plg_metrics:
free_to_paid: "Target: 3-5% (freemium) or 15-25% (free trial)"
time_to_value: "Target: <5 minutes"
expansion_rate: "Target: >120% NDR"
self_serve_ratio: "Target: >80% of revenue from self-serve"
pql_rate: "Target: 20-40% of active free users qualify"
Product Qualified Lead (PQL) definition: User who has reached activation AND shows buying signals (hits usage limit, views pricing page, invites team members).
weekly_review:
period: "Week of [DATE]"
north_star_metric:
current: "[X]"
target: "[X]"
trend: "up|down|flat"
wow_change: "+X%"
funnel_metrics:
acquisition: "[visitors/signups]"
activation: "[activated/total signups] = X%"
retention: "[week 1 retention] = X%"
revenue: "[$MRR] | [new paying] | [churned]"
referral: "[K-factor] | [referral signups]"
experiments:
completed:
- name: "[experiment]"
result: "won|lost|inconclusive"
impact: "[metric change]"
next_step: "[ship|iterate|kill]"
running:
- name: "[experiment]"
progress: "[X/Y days complete]"
early_signal: "[trending positive|neutral|negative]"
launching_next_week:
- name: "[experiment]"
ice_score: "[X]"
hypothesis: "[statement]"
channels:
- name: "[channel]"
spend: "$[X]"
cac: "$[X]"
volume: "[X] new users"
quality: "[activation rate of users from this channel]"
top_learning: "[Single most important thing learned this week]"
biggest_risk: "[What could derail growth next month?]"
focus_next_week: "[1-2 priorities]"
Use these to activate specific workflows:
| Command | Action |
|---|---|
| "Run growth audit" | Execute 8-dimension health scorecard |
| "Define north star" | Walk through NSM selection framework |
| "Score this experiment" | ICE scoring + experiment template |
| "Analyze my funnel" | Map funnel stages with conversion rates |
| "Design referral program" | Complete referral program template |
| "Evaluate this channel" | Channel scoring matrix |
| "Build growth loop" | Design self-reinforcing growth loop |
| "Optimize this page" | Landing page CRO checklist |
| "Plan retention emails" | Generate lifecycle email sequences |
| "Weekly growth review" | Fill in weekly review template |
| "Diagnose growth stall" | Run diagnostic checklist |
| "Scale this channel" | Scaling readiness assessment |