Polymarket Spread Sniper

Snipe mispriced Polymarket markets by comparing AMM price vs live CLOB orderbook midpoint. Buys the underpriced side when edge > 3% on liquid markets. Exits via take-profit or time-stop. Pure algorithm, zero LLM, no outcome prediction needed.

Buys the underpriced side when the Polymarket AMM price diverges from the live CLOB orderbook midpoint. No outcome prediction — pure spread arbitrage. Exits automatically via take-profit or time-stop.

The Edge

Polymarket has two pricing mechanisms:

1. AMM — pool-based price, slower to update
2. CLOB — live orderbook, reflects real-money conviction

When they diverge by more than min_edge (default 3%), the AMM is mispriced. The skill buys the cheap side and exits when prices converge or the time window closes.

Quick Start

export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...

# Dry run (SIM mode — safe, no real money)
python spread_sniper.py

# Live trading
python spread_sniper.py --live

# Show open positions with P&L
python spread_sniper.py --positions

# P&L summary (realized + unrealized)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# P&L history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

Configuration

All settings can be overridden via environment variables or tuned from the Simmer dashboard.

Setting	Env Var	Default	Description
Min edge	SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_EDGE	0.03	Min AMM/CLOB divergence to trade (3%)
Min volume	SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min 24h volume in USD
Max position	SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_POSITION	5.00	Max USD per trade
Max trades/run	SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_TRADES	3	Max new trades per scan
Min price	SIMMER_SPREAD_MIN_PRICE	0.10	Never buy below 10¢
Max price	SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_PRICE	0.90	Never buy above 90¢
Max hours	SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_HOURS	24	Skip markets resolving >24h out
Max CLOB spread	SIMMER_SPREAD_MAX_CLOB_SPREAD	0.05	Skip illiquid books (bid-ask > 5¢)
Daily spend cap	SIMMER_SPREAD_DAILY_MAX	100.00	Max USD deployed per day
Take-profit	SIMMER_SPREAD_TP_PCT	0.60	Exit when 60% of entry edge captured
Time-stop	SIMMER_SPREAD_TS_PCT	0.50	Exit when 50% of market window elapsed
Market exclude	SIMMER_SPREAD_EXCLUDE	(68 keywords)	Comma-separated keywords to skip

Exit Logic

Positions are checked on every scan:

• Take-profit: exits when CLOB has moved take_profit_pct × entry_edge toward fair value
• Time-stop: exits when time_stop_pct of the market's remaining window has elapsed since entry, or when <2h left regardless

P&L Tracking

# Snapshot: realized (from Simmer resolved API) + unrealized (open positions)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# Full history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

# Open positions detail
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --positions

Log appended to spread_pnl.log on each run. Cron-safe.

Files

spread_sniper.py        # Main bot — scan + entry + exit
config.json             # Runtime config overrides (takes precedence over env vars)
clawhub.json            # ClawHub + automaton config
scripts/
  spread_pnl.py         # P&L tracker (realized via Simmer API + unrealized)
  sim_redeem.py         # Redeem resolved SIM positions
spread_positions.json   # Local position journal
spread_daily.json       # Daily spend state
spread_pnl.log          # P&L snapshot log

Safety

• All credentials loaded from environment — no hardcoded secrets
• Daily spend cap prevents runaway deployment
• CLOB spread filter skips illiquid markets
• Price range filter (10%–90%) avoids near-certain / near-impossible positions
• Extensive keyword exclude list filters out esports, weather, and obscure football markets