nansen-polymarket-insider-scan

Scan a resolved Polymarket market for wallets exhibiting suspicious trading patterns: fresh funding, single-market focus, extreme ROI, late entry at high prices.

Authentication

Browser login requests nansen:api for API-key-equivalent account API permissions; existing OAuth/MCP nansen:read semantics and separate wallet authorization are unchanged.

Before any research command or loop, require an explicitly selected API key or saved browser session. Run nansen auth status first. Its cached/unverified metadata does not prove credential validity or unlocked storage. Cached access-token expiry alone does not mean the session is unusable: the CLI normally renews a selected session automatically during an already-authorized research task, without another consent request or a separate account check. Stop on anonymous selection, invalid authentication state, blocked or uncertain renewal/cleanup, or an actual authentication failure, including rejected or expired refresh authority. Follow the CLI error guidance; use the free nansen account check when troubleshooting calls for it. Do not unset a failed key, erase a session or switch to anonymous access to retry.

Use nansen login for fresh browser approval within the documented platform scope, or configure a conventional API key. NANSEN_API_KEY overrides the saved session. OpenClaw's optional primaryEnv mapping preserves configured API-key injection; it is not a required-key gate or proof of authentication. Normal credits and entitlements apply. Login does not purchase credits. Browser login is available in CLI 2.0.0 within the macOS arm64 preview scope.

API keys and browser sessions use the same automatic x402 payment behavior: a supported HTTP 402 challenge can spend funds from the configured wallet under existing wallet authorization, payment policy and spending limits. Each call, including calls in loops, can incur a payment. Authentication, authorization and session-renewal failures never trigger payment; login verification and nansen account never pay automatically. Anonymous x402 remains available as a separate paid workflow requiring explicit user intent and payment setup. Do not run this research workflow anonymously or switch to anonymous access after authentication fails.

PM Suspicious Wallet Scanner

Answers: "Are there wallets with suspicious trading patterns in this Polymarket market?"

bash

# 1. Find the resolved market
nansen research prediction-market market-screener --query "<market name>" --status closed --limit 5
# → market_id, question, volume, last_trade_price

# 2. Get top winners (positive PnL) — paginate if needed, keep per_page <= 10
MID=<market_id>
nansen research prediction-market pnl-by-market --market-id $MID --limit 10
# → address (proxy), owner_address (wallet), side_held, net_buy_cost_usd, total_pnl_usd

# 3. For each top winner, run these three calls (use proxy address for PM, owner for profiler):
PROXY=<address_from_pnl>
nansen research prediction-market trades-by-address --address $PROXY --limit 100
# → market_id, market_question, side, price, size, usdc_value, taker_action, timestamp

OWNER=<owner_address_from_pnl>
nansen research profiler historical-balances --address $OWNER --chain polygon --days 365 --sort block_timestamp:asc --limit 100
# → block_timestamp, value_usd, token_symbol — first non-zero value_usd = wallet funding date

nansen research profiler labels --address $OWNER --chain polygon
# → label, category

For each winner, compute ROI = total_pnl_usd / net_buy_cost_usd * 100 (skip ROI flags if net_buy_cost_usd <= 0), then score (0–13). Within each tier group, apply only the highest matching flag:

Flag	Pts	Trigger
NEW_WALLET	3	First funded within 7 days of now
YOUNG_WALLET	1	First funded 8–28 days ago (skip if NEW_WALLET fires)
SINGLE_MARKET	3	trades-by-address shows only 1 distinct market_id
FEW_MARKETS	1	2–3 distinct market_ids (skip if SINGLE_MARKET fires)
EXTREME_ROI	3	ROI >= 500%
HIGH_ROI	2	ROI 200–499% (skip if EXTREME_ROI fires)
LATE_ENTRY	2	Any trade on this market at price >= 0.80
LARGE_POSITION	2	net_buy_cost_usd >= $10k
KNOWN_ENTITY	-2	Has Nansen labels

Flagged at score >= 3. High risk at >= 7. High-confidence suspicious pattern: NEW_WALLET + SINGLE_MARKET + EXTREME_ROI (score 9+).

If owner_address is invalid (e.g. "0x"), use the proxy address for profiler calls too. If historical-balances returns no records with value_usd > 0, the wallet may predate the 365-day window — treat wallet age as unknown and skip NEW_WALLET / YOUNG_WALLET flags. Pause ~1.5s between wallets to avoid rate limits. Skip wallets that error and continue scanning.