Devils Advocate Suite

Execute structured adversarial thinking to stress-test high-stakes decisions, identify systemic risks, and prevent groupthink. Use when the user asks for a strategy review, risk assessment, pre-mortem, Amazon-style PR/FAQ review, or needs to challenge assumptions regarding a project or business model. Make sure to use this skill whenever a decision has dire consequences or shows signs of false consensus.

Devil's Advocate Suite: Operationalizing the Institutionalized Adversary

Work Philosophy

This skill is grounded in Adversarial Epistemology. It moves beyond casual contrarianism to provide a structured "override operation," forcing a "decoupling" of prior beliefs from the evaluation of evidence. Based on the research of Charlan Nemeth, this skill prioritizes authentic dissent over mere role-playing where possible, as authentic dissent is significantly more effective at stimulating divergent thinking and uncovering correct solutions. When role-playing is necessary, it employs specific protocols (Pre-Mortem, PR/FAQ, TRIZ) to prevent the "cognitive bolstering" of original views that often plagues assigned Devil's Advocates.

Operational Workflow

Phase 1: The Pre-Mortem (Prospective Hindsight)

Use this at the start of a project to increase the ability to identify future failure points by 30%.

1. Scene Setting: State: "Imagine it is one year in the future. The project has failed spectacularly. It is an embarrassing and devastating disaster."
2. Independent Generation: List all possible reasons for this failure silently for 2–5 minutes.
3. Aggregation: Use python scripts/premortem_aggregator.py to organize these into a Risk Matrix (Likelihood vs. Impact).
4. Mitigation: Develop specific counter-measures for high-impact/high-likelihood threats.

Phase 2: Narrative Stress-Testing (Amazon Protocol)

Used for strategic alignment and ruthless prioritization.

1. The PR/FAQ: Draft a one-page Press Release (PR) for the "successful" launch and an Internal FAQ addressing the most brutal questions about TAM, P&L, and dependencies.
2. Silent Start: Spend 20 minutes reading the narrative in silence before any discussion. This prevents "charismatic leader" bias.
3. The "So What" Critique: Every technical detail must answer for its business value; every strategic goal must specify concrete actions.

Phase 3: Dialectical Inquiry (DI)

Use for complex, ill-structured problems where a "Third Path" is needed.

1. Subgroup Split: Divide into "Proposal Team" and "Counter-Proposal Team."
2. Assumption Breakdown: The Counter-Proposal team must invent plausible counter-assumptions to every core claim of the original plan.
3. Synthesis: Search for a new, superior alternative that incorporates the best components of both worldviews.

Phase 4: TRIZ Contradiction Resolution

Transform the Devil's Advocate from a "naysayer" into a "catalyst" for innovation.

1. Identify Contradictions: Use python scripts/triz_solver.py when an advocate identifies that improving one parameter (e.g., speed) worsens another (e.g., cost).
2. Apply Principles: Use principles like "Segmentation," "Taking Out," or "Intermediary" to solve the technical or business conflict.

Specific Commands

• analyze --method premortem: Executes the 7-step failure simulation.
• analyze --method prfaq: Structures a strategy review around an Amazon-style narrative.
• solve --contradiction [Param A] vs [Param B]: Invokes the TRIZ solver.

References

Consult references/methodology_summary.md for full theoretical grounding on Nemeth dissent research, Klein pre-mortem, Amazon Working Backwards, Janis groupthink prevention, and TRIZ contradiction resolution.